By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – No disrespect to the four suspended players on the Iowa football team, but their absences shouldn’t be enough to give Northern Illinois the advantage on Saturday.

It could prove to be enough, but it shouldn’t be enough is what I’m saying, even with three of the suspended players being starters.

If Iowa is as good as many of us who cover and support the team seem to think, then it should be able overcome a depleted roster and prevail against a Mid-American Conference opponent at home.

The fact that every starter on the Iowa offensive line and defensive line is from Iowa is a nice story, but the narrative will change in a hurry if Iowa can’t sustain a rushing attack or pressure the quarterback on Saturday.

It would be shocking if Iowa failed to pressure the quarterback, even without suspended defensive tackles Cedrick Lattimore and Brady Reiff, because Iowa has three defensive ends – senior Parker Hesse, junior Anthony Nelson and sophomore A.J. Epenesa – who form a dynamic and destructive triumvirate.

But it wouldn’t be shocking if Iowa’s running game sputtered because that has a tendency to happen, including last season when Iowa lost all five games in which it failed to rush for at least 100 yards.

Iowa also won all eight games in which it surpassed 100 yards rushing last season.

In other words, Iowa is hard to beat when it rushes for at least 100 yards and easy to beat when it doesn’t.

Or so it seems.

The best way for Northern Illinois to pull off an upset would be to stuff Iowa’s running game so the offense becomes one-dimensional.

A lack of mobility and pocket awareness might be Nate Stanley’s two biggest weaknesses as the Iowa quarterback.

Take away his running game and Stanley becomes vulnerable in the pocket and that sometimes causes the offense to bog down.

Sophomore Ivory Kelly-Martin will be making his first career start for Iowa at running back, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him.

We saw flashes from Kelly-Martin last season, and in the Kids Days practice last month, but not enough to know for sure if he can meet the challenge of being the featured back.

Kelly-Martin was asked on Tuesday why he has emerged as the starter after entering preseason practice second on the depth chart behind fellow sophomore Toren Young.

“Really, it’ just going out there and playing my hardest and being coachable and executing what the coaches have been teaching us and everything,” Kelly-Martin said. “All the running backs do that real well. I’m just glad I was able to get the starting spot.”

Kelly-Martin will be running behind an Iowa offensive line that will be without starting tackles Tristan Wirfs and Alaric Jackson due to both serving one-game suspensions.

Fifth-year senior Dalton Ferguson and redshirt freshman Mark Kallenberger are expected to start at the two tackle positions, with junior Levi Paulsen also part of a three-man rotation.

Senior center Keegan Render is the veteran leader on the offensive line, but even he will be in sort of a new position after having played guard mostly up until now.

Render is confident that the new starters can handle the challenge.

“It’s a little different, but as soon as you get over those first-game jitters I think after that it’s just practice and play,” Render said.

And while rushing for at least 100 yards seems to be a key in Iowa’s success as a team, Render said the players and coaches are more concerned about another rushing statistic.

“For us it’s not as much about total (rushing yards), but for us it’s about yards per rush,” Render said. “So we want to strive towards four-and-a-half yards per rush. Average that and the rest will take care of itself.”

Pass blocking will also be a key factor against Northern Illinois’ aggressive defense that features star defensive end Sutton Smith. The converted running back led the nation with 29 ½ tackles for loss and 14 sacks last season.

“If you watch their team on film, they're a really good football team,” said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. “They've got good players. They play extremely hard, but also play and attack aggressively. What they do mentally is aggressive, as well.”

Speaking of Ferentz, he will be the center of attention on Saturday as he needs just one victory to surpass Hayden Fry as Iowa’s all-time winningest football coach.

Ferentz has been reluctant to talk about the record because he hates talking about himself, but also because he feels it’s disrespectful to Northern Illinois.

“This is our only opportunity for the 2018 team to kick it off and have our first game, and it's going to take every bit of our preparation, our focus and our effort to come out of this thing on top,” Ferentz said. “That's really where I'm trying to focus right now.”

Iowa has an 8-1 record against Northern Illinois, but the Huskies won the most recent matchup 30-27 in 2013 at Kinnick Stadium and nearly pulled off an upset the year before, losing 18-17 at Soldier Field in Chicago.

Iowa won the first four games in the series under Hayden Fry by a combined margin of 217-50, but only once in five games under Ferentz has Iowa defeated Northern Illinois by more than 10 points.

The series is way more competitive than it used to be and Iowa is missing four players due to one-game suspensions.

So I’m not saying it’ll be easy for Iowa to win on Saturday because the Huskies are no pushover and because Iowa has proven to be vulnerable against teams from the Mid-American Conference, losing four times to MAC opponents under Ferentz.

Iowa also lost to FCS power North Dakota State 23-21 in 2016 at Kinnick Stadium in another game that Iowa should have won.

All I’m saying is Iowa shouldn’t lose to a MAC opponent under any circumstance. The previous Iowa teams that lost to a MAC opponent in 2000, 2007, 2012 and 2013 weren’t very good.

One thing that separates Wisconsin from Iowa right now is that the Badgers rarely lose games they're supposed to win, whereas Iowa sometimes plays down to its competition.

The current Iowa team, with a proven quarterback, a star at tight end and three impact players at defensive end, is supposed to be pretty good. Or so we think.

We should learn something on Saturday.

Prediction: Iowa 23, Northern Illinois 17

 

Mac Attack

Iowa’s four losses to Mid-American Conference opponents under Kirk Ferentz

2000 – Western Michigan 27, Iowa 21; Iowa finished 3-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten

2007 – Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19; Iowa finished 6-6 and 4-4

2012 – Central Michigan 32, Iowa 31; Iowa finished 4-8 and 2-6

2013 – Northern Illinois 30, Iowa 27; Iowa finished 8-5 and 5-3

 

Iowa vs. Northern Illinois

When: Saturday, Sept. 1

Where: Kinnick Stadium

Kickoff: 2:40 p.m.

Series: Iowa leads 8-1

TV: Big Ten Network