By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Back in the summer, I predicted the Iowa football team would finish 9-3 in the regular season, with one of the losses to Purdue.

The 9-3 prediction was obviously a mistake, but predicting a loss to Purdue made sense then and makes sense now, maybe even more sense now given how poorly the Iowa offense has performed this season, and how well Charlie Jones has performed as a Purdue receiver after having transferred from Iowa where he had played since 2020.

Purdue has also won four of the last five games in the series, and Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm has a rare knack for out-maneuvering and out-strategizing Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker.

Saturday’s game will also be played in West Lafayette, Indiana, and while the atmosphere at Purdue is far from electric, it’s still a home-field advantage.

And yet, despite all those advantages for Purdue, I’m still picking Iowa to win.

That might raise some eyebrows and cause some eyes to roll, but I’m just going with a gut feeling.

It’s also worth noting that I’m hardly an expert at picking the outcome of Iowa games.

For example, I predicted that Iowa would defeat Illinois 8-7, but instead, Iowa lost 9-6.

So, take this for what it’s worth, but something tells me Iowa will eke out a win at what could be a rain-soaked Ross-Ade Stadium.

The forecast calls for rain in West Lafayette on Saturday, and should that happen, Purdue might struggle more on a wet surface from how it plays in a spread offense.

But even without Mother Nature’s help, I’m picking Iowa to win on Saturday, and predicting that Phil Parker will finally hold his own against Brohm’s pass-happy offense.

It just seems too easy and obvious to pick Purdue, and sometimes, that can be a red flag.

However, my biggest reason for picking Iowa is its defense because I’m not delusional enough to think the Iowa offense will suddenly start clicking against a pretty good opponent.

The offense showed a pulse in the 33-13 victory over Northwestern last Saturday, but Northwestern has also lost seven games in a row.

The Iowa offense just can’t lose Saturday’s game, or take away any chance of being competitive as it did with six turnovers in the 54-10 loss at Ohio State.

Don’t be misled in assuming the Iowa defense struggled against Ohio State just because of the final score.

The Iowa defense held its own against Ohio State’s vaunted offense throughout the first half, but the turnovers on offense ultimately caused the game to unravel in the second half.

And as good as Purdue is on offense, it’s not at Ohio State’s level.

I just think the combination of talent, coaching, experience and pride will help the Iowa defense wrestle victory away from what most think will be a defeat.

Several members of the Iowa defense were made available to the media on Tuesday and they spent a lot of time answering questions about Charlie Jones, and about another former Iowa receiver, Tyrone Tracy Jr., both of whom transferred after last season, although, Jones waited until after participating in spring practice at Iowa before leaving.

“It’s just another game, another opponent that we’ve got to plan for and go out there and execute and do what we need to do,” Iowa senior linebacker Seth Benson said when asked about facing Jones.

Kirk Ferentz couldn’t have said it any better.

Give the opponent nothing that could be used as bulletin board material.

Benson also spoke highly of the Boilermakers as he should have, given how the series has played out recently.

“Good team. They always do things really well,” Benson said. “Got a lot of ways to gain yards, run, pass game. Quarterback is great and they’ve got a lot of weapons that we’ve got to be able to handle.”

Iowa’s kicking game is another reason for my optimism.

I would like Iowa’s chances of winning if Saturday’s game were to come down to a last second field goal by true freshman Drew Stevens, barring nasty weather conditions.

Stevens has made 11-of-12 field goal attempts this season, including a personal best from 54 yards.

He made all four of his field-goal attempts against Northwestern, and he might be asked to make three or four field goals in Saturday’s game due to how much the Iowa offense struggles to score touchdowns, especially in the red zone.

Iowa also has a huge weapon in junior punter Tory Taylor whose ability to flip field position and pin opponents deep in their own territory is special.

And Purdue doesn’t have David Bell anymore as a receiver.

The former Hawkeye destroyer has moved on to the NFL, so that’s a positive.

Jones is certainly a talented and now a proven receiver, but to say he is equal to Bell would be a stretch.

Bell also proved himself against Iowa with three dominant performances, while Jones hasn’t faced the Iowa defense other then in practice.

Both sides know a lot about each other’s tendencies, so it’s hard to say who has the advantage in that regard.

I have to finish this column before I change my mind. But I’m predicting a Hawkeye victory on Saturday, and also predicting that the Iowa defense will score one touchdown.

Prediction: Iowa 23, Purdue 20

Iowa vs. Purdue

When: Saturday, 11:03 am CST

Where: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana

TV: FS1

Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network

Records/rankings: Iowa is 4-4 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten and unranked; Purdue is 5-3, 3-2 and unranked.

Series: Purdue holds a 50-39-3 advantage and has won four of the last five games in the series. Iowa’a last win at Purdue came in 2016 in a 49-35 shootout.