By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – The 2024 Big Ten football race is now starting to separate into groups of teams that range from being really good to really bad.

From the soaring Buckeyes to the plummeting Boilermakers, the 18 teams in the conference form a diverse group of dominance in some cases and dysfunction in others.

Ohio State, not surprisingly, heads the list after having outscored its first four opponents 195-27 including a 38-7 victory at Michigan State this past Saturday.

Up next for the Buckeyes on Saturday is 3-1 Iowa, which is coming off a bye week. The game will be played in Columbus, Ohio where Iowa has only won twice since 1960, the most recent being 1991.

At this point, Ohio State appears to be in a group by itself, but of course, these groups are subject to change and will change.

Here is a look at each of the six groups in which the 18 Big Ten teams currently reside, from best to worst:

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Elite: Ohio State (4-0).

Potentially elite: Oregon (4-0), Penn State (4-0).

Potential playoff team: Iowa (3-1), Michigan (4-1), USC (3-1).

Bowl bound or better: Indiana (5-0), Rutgers (4-0), Illinois (4-1), Nebraska (4-1).

Average to below average: Wisconsin (3-2), Maryland (3-2), Michigan State (3-2), Minnesota (2-3), Washington (3-2), Northwestern 2-2).

Way below average: Purdue (1-3), UCLA (1-3).

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Indiana and Rutgers, with records of 5-0 and 4-0, respectively, are developing into two of the biggest stories in this year’s race, but in Indiana’s case, maybe we should have seen it coming because its new head coach, Curt Cignetti, certainly gave plenty of warning that something special was about to happen in Bloomington with his arrival.

Cignetti has been extremely confident ever since he was hired to rebuild the Hoosier program, some might even say he has been a little arrogant and brash with his rhetoric.

But so far, his team has been able to back up his mouth.

This past December, and just 48 hours after Cignetti was announced as Indiana’s next head football coach, he was addressing Hoosier fans during a timeout of an Indiana men’s basketball game when he shared this bulletin board material.

“I’ve never taken a back seat to anybody,” Cignetti said. “Purdue sucks… and so does Michigan and Ohio State.”

Indiana is Cignetti’s fourth head coaching job, and he won big in his previous three head coaching jobs at James Madison, Elon and IUP.

He also brought some players from James Madison with him, and that is paying dividends.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 for the first time since 1967, which is also the last time Indiana won a Big Ten title and played in the Rose Bowl.

Rutgers, meanwhile, is 4-0 and continues to show improvement in Greg Schiano’s second stint as head coach.

It was tempting to put Indiana and Rutgers in the group of potential playoff teams, along with Iowa, Michigan and USC, but it’s still too early for that leap of faith.

Iowa, and of course, Michigan and USC, still have a slight edge, and get the benefit of the doubt over Indiana and Rutgers, mostly because of tradition and staying power.

Indiana and Rutgers are, obviously, moving in the right direction, as is 4-1 Nebraska and 4-1 Illinois, but it’s still too early to anoint any of them, or say that they’ve arrived.

There is also the chance that Iowa is overrated as a potential playoff team, but until somebody slows down Kaleb Johnson and the Iowa running game, which is averaging 250.3 yards per game, it seems fair to have Iowa in that group.

Frankly, Michigan might have more concerns on offense than Iowa, which is hard to believe considering where both offenses were just a year ago.

And speaking of having concerns, Wisconsin has more than its share under second-year head coach Luke Fickell, including being down to its backup quarterback and being nowhere close to as dominant in the trenches as it was under Barry Alvarez.

Bret Bielema coached some good teams at Wisconsin, and now the former Iowa defensive lineman and assistant coach has Illinois on the rise.

We should learn more about Iowa and Ohio State when they meet on Saturday.

Iowa has won 10 games in three seasons since 2019. But against elite competition, Iowa has mostly fallen way short, including last season when it was outscored 92-0 in losses to Penn State, (31-0), Michigan (26-0) and Tennessee (35-0).

Iowa could make a statement on Saturday without actually winning the game.

If Iowa were to keep the score close against Ohio State and then win its final seven conference games, which are all winnable on paper, that would give Iowa a 10-2 record and a serious chance of making the 12-team playoff with its only other loss to Iowa State.

Hawkeye fans should hope that the Cyclones (4-0) don’t unravel because the better they finish, the better Iowa’s 20-19 loss to them looks on paper.

However, the problem with Iowa State having too much success is that it could ultimately come at Iowa’s expense from a playoff selection standpoint.

Watching teams such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan State and Purdue struggle makes you appreciate Iowa’s resilience and staying power under Kirk Ferentz.

Rarely are his Iowa teams elite, but they’re also rarely below average.

Iowa hasn’t had a losing season since 2012, and only twice since 2001 has Iowa had a losing season, the other time in 2006.

Nebraska was a super power for over three decades, but for most of the past decade, it has been irrelevant on the big stage.

The Big Ten currently has three of the five worst Power 4 offenses nationally, but Iowa isn’t one of them, which is a tribute to new offensive coordinator, Tim Lester.

The Iowa passing game still leaves much to be desired, but the running game has helped to lift the much-maligned Iowa offense from the bottom statistically where it languished for the past two seasons.

UCLA is ranked the lowest at No. 127, followed by Northwestern (122) and Wisconsin (107).

Iowa plays all three of those teams over a three-week stretch from Oct. 22 to Nov. 8.

And yes, all three games will be must wins for Iowa.