By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – How did the Iowa men’s basketball program get here?

How did it get to where its home games are played in an arena that is usually two-thirds empty?

How did it get to where the UI student section so often has rows and rows of empty seats, and is mostly just a lifeless afterthought during games?

How did it get to where the Iowa athletic department had to offer $2 draft beers to UI students of legal drinking age in hopes that would be enough to entice them to show up for Wednesday’s game against Oregon?

How did it get to where some fans are wishing that Iowa moves on from Fran McCaffery, even though his teams have finished in the upper division of the Big Ten in 11 of the last 12 seasons, played in four of the last five NCAA tournaments, won the 2022 Big Ten Tournament and check all the boxes from a player citizenship standpoint?

There is no simple answer to these questions, though Iowa’s lack of success in the NCAA Tournament is without question one of the biggest factors for the growing apathy.

Iowa hasn’t advanced to the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 since the spring of 1999.

Twitter and Facebook still were just ideas in the minds of two future billionaires in 1999; Tom Brady still was playing for Michigan; Lebron James was just entering high school and Kirk Ferentz was just a few months into his new job as the Iowa football coach.

Iowa has gone a quarter century without treating its fans to a second week in the NCAA Tournament, and judging from the number of empty seats at home games, fans are sending a costly message because with each empty seat comes less ticket revenue.

So again, how did the Iowa men’s basketball program reach this critical point?

To answer that question, it helps to start by looking back to when prize recruit and Iowa native Raef LaFrentz committed to Kansas in 1993, much to the dismay of Hawkeye fans, and to former Iowa Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby.

Iowa’s failure in landing LaFrentz was reportedly when Bowlsby started to lose faith and confidence in then head coach Tom Davis.

Davis would last another five years before Bowlsby ultimately forced his departure, but their relationship was supposedly strained from the moment LaFrentz picked Kansas.

Ironically, Davis is the last head coach to lead the Iowa men’s basketball team to the Sweet 16 as he did in 1999 as a lame-duck head coach.

The team rallied behind Davis, who became a sympathetic figure, while Bowlsby was viewed by some as a villain.

Bowlsby then silenced his critics by hiring Steve Alford to replace Davis as the head coach.

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Alford was considered a rising star in the coaching profession, and he had additional notoriety as a former star player under Bobby Knight at Indiana.

It was hard to find anybody who didn’t like the hire, and when Iowa defeated defending national champion Connecticut in Alford’s first game at Madison Square Garden in New York City, it helped to galvanize the fans even more.

Alford also connected with the Iowa students whose section became known as the Hawk’s Nest during his seven seasons in Iowa City.

The student section was often packed and energized during the early years under Alford.

Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament in Alford’s second season, and defeated Creighton in the first-round of the 2001 NCAA Tournament that same season.

The program was clearly moving in the right direction under Alford and he wasn’t afraid to tell you that.

But then the Pierre Pierce sexual assault incident happened in Sept. 2002, and Alford made a horrible situation worse by saying shortly after the news had surfaced that he believed that his talented guard from suburban Chicago was innocent.

Pierce was charged with one count of third-degree sexual assault in Iowa City, but he would go on to plead guilty to a lesser misdemeanor charge of assault causing injury in a sexual assault.

He avoided serving any time in prison, but received a deferred judgment, so the charge was erased from his record after he successfully completed a year of probation, counseling and 200 hours of community service.

Pierce sat out the 2002-03 season after his plea bargain, but he was allowed to redshirt to avoid losing a year of eligibility.

The way in which his case was handled didn’t sit well with some Iowa fans and that led to two petitions that urged students to boycott the men’s basketball games.

Pierce returned to the team for the 2003-04 season and he led Iowa in scoring that season with a 16.1 per-game average.

However, his success as a player didn’t sway some fans who stopped supporting the team as a show of protest.

Those same fans would then say I told you so when Pierce was accused in Jan. 2005 of choking his former girlfriend, threatening her with knife and forcing her to strip in her apartment in Wes Des Moines.

After learning from police that Pierce was the focus of their investigation, Alford dismissed Pierce from the team.

But for some fans, it was too little and too late.

Alford helped to ease the tension by leading Iowa to two straight NCAA Tournament appearances in 2005 and 2006, but his 2005-06 squad, which featured star point guard Jeff Horner, All-Big Ten shooting guard Adam Haluska and standout forward Greg Brunner, lost to No. 14 seed Northwestern State 64-63 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

That was the beginning of the end for Alford as Iowa would fail to make the NCAA Tournament the following season.

There was also a new sheriff in town with Gary Barta having replaced Bowlsby as the Iowa Athletic Director.

Barta would back Alford into a corner after the 2006-07 season by saying that he didn’t want to go through what he called another season of rebuilding.

Alford then bolted to New Mexico, leaving behind a mixed legacy in which some of his players respected him greatly, while others didn’t.

Alford had a bad habit of blaming his players after losses and his relationship with the media was hot and cold.

He also came off as arrogant and entitled and many fans were glad to see him go because he hadn’t won enough to offset his personality flaws, and because of how he handled Pierre Pierce.

Barta then hired Todd Lickliter away from Butler, and to say that would go on to be a disaster would be an understatement.

After three straight losing seasons and multiple player defections, Barta really had no choice but to fire Lickliter before the program hit rock bottom, if it hadn’t already.

Enter Fran McCaffery.

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After failing miserably with his hiring of Lickliter, there was pressure on Barta to get it right the second time.

Barta would go on to hire Fran McCaffery, who was the head coach for Siena at the time.

Fran McCaffery had worked his way up the coaching ladder the old-fashioned way, including spending 11 season as an assistant coach at Notre Dame from 1988 to 1999.

He was also the head coach for Lehigh from 1985 to 1988 and for North Carolina-Greensboro from 1999 to 2005.

And he was successful at each stop.

His final two teams at Siena combined to finish 54-15 over the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons.

Barta was convinced that Fran McCaffery was the right person to rebuild the program, and Barta would prove to be right.

Iowa played in the National Invitational Tournament in Fran McCaffery’s second and third seasons as head coach, and finished as the NIT runner-up in 2013, losing to Baylor in the championship game.

In just three seasons, Fran McCaffery had made a program that was in shambles competitive again.

He has since led Iowa to seven NCAA Tournament appearances, but Iowa’s record is just 4-7 in those games.

And therein lies Fran McCaffery’s biggest problem; his lack of NCAA Tournament success, which includes no Sweet 16 appearances despite having some of the greatest players in program history on his rosters, names that include Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp and Keegan and Kris Murray.

Fran McCaffery has shown a knack for seeing talent where others head coaches don’t see it.

He was the first Power 4 head coach to offer Luka Garza a scholarship. And by the time other head coaches started to see and appreciate Garza’s potential, it was too late because Garza and Fran McCaffery already had built a strong and lasting relationship.

Fran McCaffery also advised the Murray twins to attend prep school for one year after high school in order to develop their skills and their bodies.

Keegan and Kris Murray only had one scholarship offer from Western Illinois when they graduated from Cedar Rapids Prairie High School.

They would go on to attend a prep school school in Florida where Fran McCaffery kept a close watch on both of them.

He eventually offered both of them a scholarship and Keegan Murray would go on to become a consensus All-American and an NBA first-round pick by the Sacramento Kings in 2022.

Kris Murray also earned All-America accolades in 2023 and was selected in the first round of the 2023 NBA draft by the Portland Trail Blazers.

Forward Aaron White, one of Fran McCaffery’s earliest recruits, also went from being lightly recruited out of high school in Ohio to being one of the most statistically accomplished players in program history.

His was another case in which Fran McCaffery saw potential when most other coaches didn’t see it.

The problem is that when players become individual stars, fans expect the teams to benefit from that success.

But that just hasn’t happened much at Iowa under Fran McCaffery.

Iowa lost to Richmond 67-63 in the first-round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament despite having the Murray twins and the Big Ten’s all-time leading 3-point shooter – Jordan Bohannon – on the roster.

Some will say that Fran McCaffery has hurt his own legacy by developing star players, but then not winning enough important games with those star players on the roster.

Fran McCaffery prefers that his teams play at a fast pace on offense and he gives his players freedom to shoot.

His style on offense is the polar opposite of how Iowa played under Lickliter, and that made it easier for fans to embrace Fran McCaffery because they were tired of watching games played at a snail’s pace under Lickliter.

But with that style of play comes a lot of defensive possessions and that’s where Iowa has struggled under Fran McCaffery, the latest evidence being the 101-75 loss at Maryland in which the Iowa defense performed like sieve in the second half.

Iowa’s defense under Fran McCaffery way more times than not has been a weakness, and the biggest reason why the program hasn’t achieved elite status.

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Iowa’s struggles over that past quarter century, coupled with the stench leftover over from the Pierce Pierce controversy, has caused some fans to check out and move on.

And once they’re gone, it’s hard to get them back without winning at an exceptionally high level.

Fran McCaffery also has rubbed some fans the wrong way over the years with his volatile in-game temper and his emotional outbursts.

But now with his team having lost seven of its last nine games, he’s being criticized for being too passive because he hasn’t had one of his infamous tirades for quite some time.

Fran McCaffery just can’t win in this case.

Some believe that moving the student section closer to courtside would spark interest and that is being considered according to Iowa Athletic Director Beth Goetz.

But as senior forward Payton Sandfort asked earlier in the season, what if the students still didn’t show up.

Iowa offered them $2 beers the other night, but it seemed to have little effect on the attendance.

Some will also say that the unprecedented rise of the Iowa women’s basketball team under Caitlin Clark is partly to blame for the fan apathy with men’s basketball, because fans only have so much time and money, and right now the Iowa women’s team, which routinely plays before sellout crowds, is far more popular.

Bad weather and inconvenient tip-off times also are blamed for the sagging attendance.

Iowa’s nonconference schedule also gets blamed for the apathy, and rightfully so because it does leave much to be desired.

It’s unfortunate that Iowa doesn’t play Drake and Northern Iowa anymore in men’s basketball, especially considering some of the nonconference opponents that Iowa does play, which this season included Texas AM Commerce, Southern, Rider and USC Upstate, New Orleans and New Hampshire.

Those six games, which made up more than half of Iowa’s nonconference schedule, were foregone conclusions, and that’s a tough sell.

Of course, if the Iowa men’s basketball team was contending for a Big Ten title right now, none of those excuses would matter because the arena would be at least two-thirds full, if not more.

It ultimately comes down to winning and right now the Iowa men’s basketball team isn’t winning enough games to attract more fans.

Fran McCaffery’s current team, barring a miracle turnaround, will almost certainly fail to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season.

And with this being year 15 for Fran McCaffery, some fans are just ready for a change, and fair enough.

But in fairness to Fran McCaffery, his current team, which hosts Washington on Saturday, has been rocked by injuries.

Sophomore forward Owen Freeman, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, is out for the rest of the season due to a finger injury that required surgery.

His absence from an impact standpoint would sort of be like the Iowa women’s basketball team playing without star guard Lucy Olsen.

Starting point guard Drew Thelwell also has been hobbled by an ankle injury, while freshman forward Cooper Koch barely has played this seasons due to health concerns.

It seems that what could go wrong has gone wrong this season, the latest example being Wednesday’s 80-78 loss to Oregon at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Iowa had several shots that would be considered pretty routine or easy that rolled around the rim before falling out, while Oregon had a player, who was shooting just 1-of-14 from 3-point range, drain a pivotal three in the second half.

This season just wasn’t meant to be, or so it would seem.

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Fran McCaffery lifted the Iowa program from the ashes of the Lickliter debacle, but that was a long time ago.

He works in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately profession and is paid well for his work.

It’s good work if you can get it, but the downside is always the threat of not meeting expectations and knowing that there is only so long a coach can be in that vulnerable position.

One of four scenarios will likely play out in the case of Fran McCaffery:

• He will return for his 16th season with his current staff intact.
• He will return for his 16th season, but only after adding a defensive specialist to his staff.
• He and Iowa Athletic Director Beth Goetz will reach a separation agreement, causing McCaffery to move on.
• He will be forced to resign if a separation agreement can’t be reached.

There is a growing belief that West Virginia head coach Darian DeVries, due to his ties to the state of Iowa, is the person that Iowa will eventually zero in on to replace Fran McCaffery.

But DeVries wouldn’t come cheap if you were to combine his buyout with Fran McCaffery’s buyout and with the cost of what it would take from a contract standpoint to land DeVries.

Add all those numbers up and it’s more than $30 million because it would likely take a six-year contract paying at least $3.5 to $4 million annually to get DeVries.

Drake head coach Ben McCollom is another name being mentioned as a possible replacement for Fran McCaffery due to his success in his first year with the Bulldogs.

McCollom would come cheaper than DeVries, but he’d still likely get six years for at least $3.5 million annually since Fran McCaffery currently makes $3.2 million annually.

This will be an important offseason for Beth Goetz as she tries to figure the best way to move forward in men’s basketball.

Fran McCaffery has been good for the Iowa men’s basketball program and vice versa.

But there is obviously a disconnect with the fans that has to be addressed ASAP.

This disconnect has been festering for over 30 years and it started to take shape when Iowa lost Raef LaFrentz to Kansas because that led to a series of events that were counter-productive, namely the hiring of Alford and Lickliter.

Fran McCaffery cleaned up Lickliter’s mess and has kept Iowa competitive for more than a decade.

He also has had the opportunity to coach two of his sons at Iowa, and has continued his mission to raise money to fight cancer and to raise awareness.

Fran McCaffery lost both of his parents to cancer and his son, former Iowa forward Patrick McCaffery, who now plays for Butler, had  a malignant tumor removed from his thyroid in junior high.

So, Fran McCaffery has dealt with far worse than declining attendance and early exits from the NCAA Tournament.

He has given Iowa his best shot and he has performed much better than the two previous head coaches before him.

But with Iowa in a fight just to make the Big Ten Tournament, which now only takes the top 15 teams in the conference, and with home attendance alarmingly low, Fran McCaffery faces an uphill climb.

Oddly enough, Iowa’s struggles on the court, and with attendance, hasn’t hurt recruiting, considering Fran McCaffery has two four-star recruits, and a three-star prospect in his 2025 recruiting class.

The college landscape has changed considerably in a short time with the rise of the transfer portal and with name-image and likeness having such a huge impact.

Fran McCaffery hasn’t relied much on the transfer portal as he prefers to recruit players out of high school and then develop them over time.

Iowa also hasn’t been a force when it come to NIL because those resources are limited, especially compared to some of the competition.

But there is no going back to the way it used to be, so Hawkeye athletics will have to keep adjusting to this new order.

Fran McCaffery, who will return 66 in May, has given no hint that he is considering retiring.

At his age, however, it will obviously happen sooner than later.

The question is when and under what circumstances?