Iowa looks to continue dominance over an improving Illinois squad
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – After practically guaranteeing an easy win against Nebraska last Friday, I won’t go that far with Illinois because Iowa’s 26-20 victory over Nebraska was far from easy.
Iowa had to scratch and claw to defeat a Nebraska team that just a week earlier had been crushed by Illinois 41-23 in Lincoln, Neb.
So I’m not guaranteeing anything about Iowa’s game against Illinois on Saturday in Champaign, Ill.
Iowa should win, and I’m picking Iowa to win, but Iowa also should’ve defeated Purdue in the season opener in West Lafayette, Ind., but failed to do so, even though Purdue was without star receiver Rondale Moore due to an injury, and without head coach Jeff Brohm due to a positive COVID-19 test.
If ever there was a failed opportunity that could prove real costly, Iowa’s 24-20 loss at Purdue was it.
Northwestern already has clinched the Big Ten West Division due to its game against Minnesota having been canceled for Saturday because of COVID-19 health concerns.
That might cause some to worry about Iowa (4-2) having an emotional letdown, but that seems unlikely under the surreal circumstances where just having the opportunity to play during a global pandemic is a victory in itself.
Should Iowa lose to Illinois on Saturday, it won’t because the Illinois players wanted it more, or because the Iowa players were looking ahead to next Saturday’s game against Wisconsin.
Stuff like that is overrated, and often is used as an explanation for why the best team on paper doesn’t always win.
Iowa has won the last six games against Illinois, and 11 of the last 12 in the series, because it has had better players than Illinois.
Iowa won the last two games at Illinois by a combined score of 91-o, again, because it had better talent and because it played better on those two days.
Football isn’t rocket science, even at this level.
Illinois (2-3) has shown signs of life under head coach Lovie Smith, including making a bowl game last season.
However, Illinois also lost its final three games last season after becoming bowl eligible, and its first three games this season by a combined score of 117-45.
It looked as if the wheels were coming off and that Smith was facing a hopeless cause, but then Illinois responded with back-to-back victories on the road against Rutgers and Nebraska.
“This year, to me, it’s a little bit strange just because if you look at how they have been affected by the virus and what-have-you,” Kirk Ferentz said of Illinois, which had its game against Ohio State canceled for last Saturday because of COVID-19 concerns. “But I think in a nutshell, the last time out when they had their quarterback back in and were able to do the things they wanted to do, they did them extremely well against a team that we struggled to beat the other day.
“It was an impressive outing when they were with Nebraska, and that’s the Illinois team we’re trying to get ready right now. So we know we have our hands full and a lot to work on there. That’s kind of where it is right now.”
Ferentz was referring to Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters, who started and played the entire game against Nebraska. Illinois is 7-5 when Peters starts and finishes a game.
His problem has been staying healthy.
Illinois’ problem has been a lack of stability at quarterback where four different quarterbacks have started in each of the last four games for Illinois.
To put that in perspective, Iowa has only had two different quarterbacks start over the last 45 games dating back to the 2017 season: Nate Stanley and current starter Spencer Petras.
And speaking of Petras, he can expect to see seven or eight defenders in the box as Illinois tries to contain the Iowa running game, which has been the driving force on offense during the current four-game winning streak.
Lovie Smith is to coaching defense what Kirk Ferentz is to coaching the offensive line, so Petras will have to be alert and make smart decisions.
Petras also has to throw with more accuracy, because right now, his receivers are having to work too hard to make what should be routine catches.
Even with a four-game winning streak, I’m reluctant to say that Iowa is real good because the four victories have come against teams with a combined record of 6-15. And if Iowa truly is real good, it should prevail on Saturday.
Turnovers and injuries are always a threat, and often a great equalizer, so it’s imperative that Petras protect the football in what will be his seventh career start.
Both teams have a lot to play for, not the least of which is just the chance to play during a global pandemic that has caused more than 100 games to be canceled or postponed.
Illinois hasn’t played for two weeks, so its players should be fresh, hungry and confident after back-to-back wins.
And yet, I’m still picking Iowa simply because I believe Iowa is better.
Prediction: Iowa 31, Illinois 21