Kirk Ferentz faces a tough and delicate situation on offense
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – Even though the circumstances are different, this sort of feels like January 2015 all over again for the Iowa football program.
Some fans are outraged over Iowa’s latest bowl disaster and feel strongly that changes in scheme and personnel are long overdue, while others are just sad and frustrated about a program that has taken them on an emotional roller coaster ride in recent seasons.
Just when it seemed safe and reasonable to pick Iowa to win a January bowl game against an opponent that was decimated by injuries, the Hawkeyes weren’t even competitive in the Outback Bowl on Monday, losing 30-3 against a Florida team that was missing five of its top six tacklers because of injuries and that had scored 13 or fewer points in six games this season.
The Florida squad that crushed Iowa on Monday hardly compares to the Florida teams that were elite under Urban Meyer a decade ago, although, it was hard to tell, given how Iowa showed so little resistance.
The Iowa defense held its own for a while, but eventually wore down because it was on the field for so long as the Iowa passing attack continued to sputter.
Iowa looked more helpless as the game dragged on, leaving fans with the same empty feeling that came on the heels of a 45-28 loss to Tennessee in the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl.
Fans probably shouldn’t feel as bad now as they did two years ago because the current team actually won three of its last four games, while the 2014 Hawkeye squad lost four its last five games, including the bowl game in which they trailed 28-0 early in the second quarter.
But it is two years deeper into Kirk Ferentz’s now 18-year reign, causing some fans to be more impatient and more emotional after losses.
Monday’s Outback Bowl debacle was like watching a rerun with the same bad result and with many of the same characters making what some fans feel are bad decisions.
Iowa offensive coordinator Greg Davis was public enemy No. 1 after the TaxSlayer Bowl two years ago and nothing has changed. The Davis bashers always are ready to pounce and the Outback Bowl played right into their hands as Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard struggled just to complete a pass.
Fair or not, Davis is mostly being blamed for Iowa’s offensive woes.
He, obviously, deserves some of the blame because he is the offensive coordinator and calls the plays. It goes with the territory.
It’s just hard to know for sure how much control and influence Davis has on the offensive philosophy, on personnel decisions and on key in-game decisions.
Davis made it clear shortly after being hired to replace Ken O’Keefe as the Iowa coordinator before the 2012 season that Iowa needed more speed at the receiver positions.
But as you could tell on Monday in the Outback Bowl, that problem still hasn’t been addressed properly.
The Outback Bowl showed again that Iowa doesn’t have enough playmakers at receiver to offset being predictable on offense. There is nothing wrong with being predictable if you’re vastly superior or even equal to your opponents.
It certainly works for Alabama, and it works for Iowa on average about seven or eight times each season.
But if the opponent is quicker and faster at most of the skill positions, as was the case with Florida on Monday and with Stanford in the 2016 Rose Bowl and with Tennessee in the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl and with Louisiana State in the 2014 Outback Bowl and with Oklahoma in the 2011 Insight Bowl, being predictable then becomes a problem because many of the key plays in a game are decided in space, athlete versus athlete.
This isn’t to say that Iowa should abandon its running game because even in this age of spread offenses, teams that can’t sustain a rushing attack often struggle over time.
Ferentz’s approach to winning always will rely on a ground game in which some of the plays are predictable, but there is nothing wrong with that approach. The state of Iowa produces far more offensive linemen than receivers and running backs, so why not take advantage of what is already here?
The problem with Iowa’s running game is that it can’t do it alone. It needs help from the passing game, but more times than not, the passing game has failed to deliver in pivotal moments under Davis.
You could argue that Iowa’s last three starting quarterbacks – Beathard, Jake Rudock and James Vandenberg – all regressed under Davis.
And yet, Ferentz has stayed loyal to Davis, which means Ferentz's legacy will forever be tied to his current offensive coordinator.
Ferentz could easily send Davis packing and promote his son, Iowa offensive line coach Brian Ferentz, to offensive coordinator and most fans probably would embrace the move just for the sake of change.
But Ferentz still must feel that Davis gives the Iowa offense its best chance of being successful at this stage or why else keep him?
There is a lot to like about the 2017 Iowa football team beginning with all the starting experience returning on the offensive line and with seven starters back on defense, including all three linebackers.
Nothing against the 13 players committed to Iowa’s 2017 recruiting class, but the most important recruit for next season is receiver Matt VandeBerg, who recently was granted a medical hardship waiver for a fifth year.
Sophomore-to-be quarterback Nate Stanley has become a fan favorite, which often happens when an offense struggles. But we still don’t know very much about Stanley because he played so little as Beathard’s backup this season.
It’s obvious that Stanley has a strong arm because we’ve seen him make all the throws in practice. But we’ve seen so little of him in a game to make a fair and accurate assessment at this stage.
Right now, we mostly have Davis’ word that the 6-foot-5, 212-pound Stanley has a chance to be special. So at least in Stanley’s case, fans seem to trust Davis’ judgment.
Ferentz responded to the poor finish in 2014 by first changing quarterbacks and by changing some of the routine, including switching practice from the late afternoon to the morning.
Those changes were praised during Iowa’s rise to 12-0 in 2015, but mean nothing now. Beathard is gone and Iowa failed to meet expectations this season, finishing 8-5 despite practicing in the morning.
The Iowa program is built to win seven or eight games under the current circumstances. History says fans should be satisfied with that because rarely has Iowa been better.
History doesn’t always tell the whole story, though.
Ferentz is loved and respected by Iowa fans for his class and integrity. He is a good man to the core.
He is also a very good football coach whether some fans are willing to admit that in the wake of the Outback Bowl disaster.
Iowa has combined to win 20 games over the past two seasons. To put that in perspective, Iowa State never has accomplished that.
But on the other hand, Iowa is far from being elite and probably won’t reach that level again unless Ferentz can fix what is ailing his offense.
Ferentz also has been around for a long time, the dean of Big Ten football coaches with 18 seasons under his belt.
Time isn't running out on Ferentz with him having recently signed a new 10-year contract.
With some fans, though, patience is running out after so many years on the job. Especially with regard to his offensive coordinator.
And that's a problem.