Iowa tough to read during roller-coaster season
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – The perception of the Iowa men’s basketball team has changed almost on a weekly basis this season.
The same team that looked vulnerable and too dependent on senior sharpshooter Peter Jok for offense after a loss to Nebraska-Omaha on Dec. 3 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena looked spectacular in back-to-back double-digit victories over Iowa State and Northern Iowa just a few days later.
The same team that found a way to win 86-83 in overtime against Michigan on Jan. 1 at home found a way to lose in double-overtime at Nebraska 93-90 four days later.
The same team that won three consecutive games against Ohio State, Rutgers and Nebraska in late January and early February now has lost three games in a row.
Illinois handed Iowa its third consecutive loss on Saturday, outscoring the Hawkeyes 10-5 in the final 2 ½ minutes to prevail 70-66 in a game that was filled with emotion on and off the court.
Iowa fans paid tribute to former Hawkeye guard Kenny Arnold, who has battled with health issues for over 30 years, by showing up in large numbers on Saturday and by wearing his white No. 30 T-shirt as a show of support.
The atmosphere was electric, at least until the game started.
The game itself was a dud until the very end when both teams tried frantically to win.
I made the mistake of saying there is no way Iowa could lose Saturday’s game because the circumstances wouldn’t allow it. Illinois just wasn’t good enough, I thought, to seize the moment in a hostile environment.
It was naïve and foolish to think that way.
In addition to underestimating Illinois, I overestimated Iowa.
If we’ve learned anything about the current Iowa team, it’s not to assume anything good or bad.
But in fairness to fans, and to the media, it’s hard not to get carried away by the moments, both positive and negative, during the course of the season.
Iowa’s depth is considered a strength during good times, but then questioned during bad times. It now seems that every game comes with a sweeping narrative in which Iowa is either given too much praise or too much criticism.
The worry now is that Iowa, with records of 14-13 overall and 6-8 in the Big Ten, is letting the season slip away.
The chance of Iowa making the NCAA Tournament for the fourth year in a row has been a long shot throughout the season, but now its only chance would be to win the Big Ten Tournament.
The National Invitation Tournament, on the other hand, still is within Iowa’s reach, but just barely. The loss to Illinois was devastating from an emotional standpoint and from a postseason standpoint.
Iowa has four games left, beginning with Tuesday’s game at home against struggling Indiana. After that comes back-to-back road games at Maryland on Feb. 25 and Wisconsin on March 2 followed by the season finale against Penn State on March 5 at home.
That’s two very winnable games and two very lose-able games still left to be played.
Split those four games and Iowa would finish 16-15 overall and probably would have to win at least one or two games in the conference tournament just to make the NIT.
So yeah, it’s do or die for Iowa in the wake of Saturday’s loss.
But this is probably what we should have expected from this Iowa team based on experience and personnel.
The fact that Iowa struggled down the stretch in two of the previous three seasons has some assuming the same thing is happening now. And it is to a certain extent with Iowa mired in a three-game losing streak.
But the current team has little in common with those two teams because it hasn't been nearly as successful as they were earlier in their seasons.
And the season isn't over yet.
Iowa still could win 18 games in the regular season and finish with a winning record in conference play, or it could lose as many as 12 conference games and finish with a losing record overall for the first time in six years.
Nobody wants to hear the “we’re young” excuse in late February, but there is no denying Iowa’s youth. Jok was the only upperclassmen to score against Illinois on Saturday.
Many of his teammates are experiencing things for the first time.
“Sometimes, you’ve got to go through it and experience it, the good and bad,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery said after Saturday’s loss.
The future looks bright for Iowa, considering how many freshmen and sophomores are playing prominent roles this season.
But the future also has no guarantees. The best way to prepare for the future is to focus on the now and to get better.
As fun as the freshmen have been to watch this season, each has to get better in order for Iowa to do the same.
Power forward Tyler Cook has to rebound better, point guard Jordan Bohannon has to do a better job of stopping penetration and Isaiah Moss has to stop disappearing in games for long stretches.
Jok also has to get better in what little time he has left as a Hawkeye.
It has been suggested on social media that Iowa is better without Jok in the lineup. That argument gained momentum when the Hawkeyes defeated Ohio State and Rutgers while Jok was sidelined by a sore back.
And though I disagree with that argument, it seems fair to say that Iowa isn't much worse without Jok, especially on defense. The team looked very capable in the two games without him, although, the competition was below average.
Jok pointed the finger at himself after Saturday’s loss to Illinois, saying he failed to lead down the stretch. Their probably is some truth to that, but Saturday’s loss was a group effort.
And right now, this group of Iowa players is struggling to stay afloat late in the season.
The freshmen will deny it when asked if they’ve hit the freshmen wall. But what would you expect them to say to the media?
“I try to tell them that I went through this, that it’s a grind,” Jok said of the freshmen. “You just have to stay positive and keep working, and also read your body and not try to over-do stuff.”
Nobody ever said staying the course was easy.
And if you consider Iowa to be a failure this season, that’s your fault for having unrealistic expectations.
This Iowa team had a .500 record or slightly above written all over it.
It has thrilled fans at times, like defeating Purdue 83-78 on Jan. 12 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, while other times it has frustrated fans by losing games like the one on Saturday.
Put it all together and you have a team that was destined to be average.