My game-by-game predictions for the 2019 Iowa football team
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – Let me start by telling Iowa fans that these predictions were made based solely on what I think will happen this season rather than what I hope will happen.
If I had my way from a business and from a personal standpoint, the Iowa football team would finish undefeated during the regular season before facing Notre Dame for the national title.
But I try to be true to what I think because anything less would be dishonest spin.
While there is plenty of hype surrounding the 2019 Iowa football team, there is also cause for concern mostly due to what appears to be a brutal road schedule, at least on paper.
Iowa has arguably the best defensive end in college football in junior A.J. Epenesa, one of the top pair of offensive tackles in juniors Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs, a three-year starter at quarterback in senior Nate Stanley and an electrifying kick returner in junior Ihmir Smith-Marsette.
But Iowa also has very little experience at tight end and center, an unproven kicker, uncertainty at punter and maybe the toughest Big Ten road schedule with games at Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska.
Throw in the Sept. 14th road game at Iowa State and that is five games in which Iowa could be an underdog.
But on the other hand, you also could make a case that all five of the road games are winnable based on Iowa’s personnel.
Kirk Ferentz likes what he has returning at tight end and thinks highly enough of redshirt freshman Tyler Linderbaum to make him the starter at center.
But until you see how the new guys perform on Saturday, questions remain.
I think Linderbaum has star potential, but there could be some early growing pains.
And as for Stanley, he has a chance to be one of the most prolific quarterbacks in program history with regard to statistics. He has combined to throw 52 touchdown passes over the past two seasons, which is the most by an Iowa quarterback in back-to-back seasons.
Stanley needs 23 scoring strikes to break Chuck Long’s school record of 74 touchdown passes. The fact that Stanley is even flirting with breaking a record set by Long is impressive in itself.
But just like with his team, there is a flipside to Stanley that throws up a red flag.
Iowa is just 9-9 in conference games with Stanley at quarterback, including 4-5 on the road. Iowa also has defeated just one Big Ten opponent on the road with Stanley behind center, that being 7-6 Minnesota last season.
I tried to weigh the good with the bad while making these predictions and this is what I came up with:
Iowa 34, Miami of Ohio 13: With exception to the near-upset in 2002 when Iowa had to melt down the clock to secure a 29-24 victory on the road, this matchup hasn’t been very competitive. Iowa has outscored the RedHawks 110-43 in the other three games, and there are lots of reasons to think that the Aug. 31st season opener will be more of the same.
Miami only returns four starters on offense and five on defense and is just 2-19 in nonconference games under sixth-year head coach Chuck Martin.
Iowa 30, Rutgers 14: Is there an easier conference opener than facing Rutgers at home? Probably not.
The Scarlet Knights are just 3-24 in the Big Ten over the past three seasons under head coach Chris Ash and 7-29 overall.
And with more of the same expected to happen this season, patience has to be wearing thin in New Brunswick, N.J.
One opposing coach told Athlon Sports that Rutgers “competed well down the stretch last season, but they’re struggling because of personnel. You can’t hide that in this league.”
Iowa State 23, Iowa 21: Remember, I picked with my head and not with my heart while coming up with this score.
This prediction will undoubtedly upset some Iowa fans, especially since Iowa has won the last four games in the series.
But Iowa’s winning streak is part of the reason I’m picking the Matt Campbell-led Cyclones because the tide inevitably will shift at some point.
However, the biggest reason is because Iowa State has arguably its best team on paper in quite some time, and will be playing at home.
After a 1-3 start last season, Iowa State switched to freshman Brock Purdy at quarterback and then went 7-2 the rest of the way.
David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler are huge losses at running back and receiver, respectively, but the cupboard hardly is bare in Ames. The Cyclones returns all five starters on the offensive line, all three starters on the defensive line and two of three starters at linebacker.
Iowa 38, Middle Tennessee State 17: The Blue Raiders would have been a long shot to beat Iowa even with the program’s all-time leader passer, Brent Stockstill, playing quarterback.
But without Stockstill, who finished his career last season with 12,483 passing yards, the odds of an upset are even less likely.
Iowa has a huge advantage in personnel and that should be apparent from start to finish in this game.
Michigan 20, Iowa 17: This pick is based mostly on where the game will be played. If this game were played at Kinnick Stadium instead of at the Big House, then Iowa would have a slight edge.
Michigan has starting quarterback Shea Patterson returning, along with four starters on the offensive line and a talented group of receivers, even without Oliver Martin, who transferred to Iowa this summer.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh also has a new offensive coordinator in Josh Gettis, who has implemented more spread concepts. The hope is that Patterson will fit better in the spread because that is reportedly the offense he prefers.
The Wolverines suffered some huge losses on defense, especially up front, but like always, there is plenty of talent waiting to fill those spots.
Iowa 27, Penn State 21: The Nittany Lions have combined to finish 31-8 over the past three seasons with its highly explosive offense leading the way.
But the defense might have to lead the way this season, considering all of the losses on offense, mostly notably record-setting three-year starting quarterback Trace McSorley.
Tommy Stevens was expected to replace McSorley at quarterback, but he surprised the Penn State coaches when he entered the transfer portal in April. Stevens has since transferred to Mississippi State, leaving redshirt sophomore Sean Clifford as the likely starter.
The combination of Iowa’s defense and home-field advantage should be too much for Clifford and his cohorts to overcome.
Iowa 35, Purdue 31: This pick was made with some hesitation and reluctance, and for good reason.
Purdue in addition to being loaded at the offensive skill positions is 2-0 against Iowa under third-year head coach Jeff Brohm.
The Boilermakers shredded Iowa for 434 yards during a 38-36 victory in West Lafayette, Ind., last season.
But on the flipside, Purdue has major concerns on the offensive line where tackles Grant Hermanns and Matt McCann are the only linemen with any experience.
Nine starters return on defense, but that isn’t necessarily good news, considering Purdue allowed 443.9 yards per game last season, including a Big Ten worst 284.7 passing yards.
Northwestern 22, Iowa 19: The Wildcats are 16-5 in one-possession finishes over the last four seasons and 45-26 under head coach Pat Fitzgerald.
In other words, Northwestern has shown a knack for winning close games, including a 14-10 victory at Kinnick Stadium last season, while Iowa hasn’t.
Iowa 24, Wisconsin 21: I went back and forth with this pick until finally giving Iowa the slighted edge, even on the road.
Wisconsin has issues at quarterback and on special teams and only has eight starters returning overall, including just three on offense.
It would be naïve and foolish to dismiss Wisconsin as a contender in the West Division just because of what happened last season. But this Wisconsin team is more vulnerable than past teams.
Iowa 33, Minnesota 20: After winning three of their final four games last seasons, the Gophers are trending in the right direction under head coach P.J. Fleck.
But it's still hard to see this team winning at Kinnick Stadium, assuming Iowa is healthy.
The situation was so bad on defense last season that Fleck fired Robb Smith as coordinator after his unit allowed 646 yards during a loss 55-31 drubbing against lowly Illinois in early November.
Minnesota always seems to have quality running backs and this season will be no exception with Rodney Smith, Mohamed Ibrahim and Shannon Brooks all now healthy and ready to contribute. Senior Tyler Johnson is also one of the top receivers in the Big Ten.
However, the biggest concern is at quarterback where Zack Annexstad and Tanner Morgan combined to throw 18 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions last season.
Iowa 42, Illinois 21: Despite having won just nine games in his first three seasons, the school added two years to Lovie Smith’s original six-year contract shortly after the 2018 season.
Illinois athletic officials deserve praise for their patience, but there isn’t much proof that things are moving in the right direction under Smith, especially on defense where Illinois allowed a Big Ten worst 508.3 yards per game last season.
Nebraska 28, Iowa 27: The last thing Iowa fans need is for the most delusional and obnoxious fan base in all of sports to finally have something to brag about again.
So I apologize for this pick and hope that I’m wrong because the fallout from a loss to Nebraska would be like no other from a fan reaction standpoint.
But let me explain why I picked the Scott Frost-led Cornhuskers to end their four-game losing streak to Iowa.
It basically came down to two key factors – quarterback Adrian Martinez and home-field advantage with the game being played in Lincoln, Neb.
Martinez nearly orchestrated an upset at Kinnick Stadium last season as he finished with 336 total yards in a 31-28 loss. It took a 41-yard field goal by Miguel Recinos for Iowa to escape with a victory.
This pick is based on the assumption that Martinez will be healthy. But should he get injured and can’t play against Iowa, the odds of Nebraska winning would drop significantly and would change my pick.
So there you have it, eight wins and four losses for the Iowa 2019 Iowa football team. That would match Iowa's regular-season record from last season and would be a typical season under Ferentz, who has averaged 7.6 wins per season over two decades at Iowa.
For those who feel that I’m being too negative, I hope you’re right and will make no excuses should that be the case.
Iowa's 2019 schedule
Date, opponent, location
Aug. 31, Miami of Ohio, Kinnick Stadium
Sept. 7, Rutgers, Kiunnick Stadium
Sept. 14, Iowa State, Ames
Sept. 28, Middle Tennessee State, Kinnick Stadium
Oct. 5, Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich.
Oct. 12, Penn State, Kinnick Stadium
Oct. 19, Purdue, Kinnick Stadium
Oct. 26, Northwestern, Evanston, Ill.
Nov. 9, Wisconsin, Madison, Wis.
Nov. 16, Minnesota, Kinnick Stadium
Nov. 23, Illinois, Kinnick Stadium
Nov. 29, Nebraska, Lincoln, Neb.