Gut feeling says Iowa will defeat Wisconsin
Same gut feeling I had for Purdue game
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – The same gut feeling that made me believe the Iowa football team would defeat Purdue last Saturday in West Lafayette, Indiana has returned.
Because as of this moment, my belief is that Iowa will defeat Wisconsin on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium by a score of maybe 12-9 or something similar.
I can see it now, the Iowa offense does just enough to allow freshman kicker Drew Stevens to make four field goals, including two from beyond 50 yards, while the Iowa defense does enough to contain Wisconsin’s rushing attack.
Iowa doesn’t necessarily have to rush for more yards than Wisconsin in Saturday’s game, but it also can’t lose the rushing battle by a large amount, either.
Should the Badgers outgain Iowa by more than 100 yards on the ground in Saturday’s game, then my gut feeling might have just been gas.
But I just don’t see that happening against the veteran Iowa defense, which held an explosive Purdue offense without a touchdown in last Saturday’s 24-3 victory.
Iowa and Wisconsin are both 5-4 overall and 3-3 in the Big Ten, so each team has flaws, and each team has lost any chance of being elite.
Wisconsin is averaging 183.33 rushing yards per game, which by Iowa’s standards would be extraordinary.
By Wisconsin’s standards, however, it’s just okay.
Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz is also just okay, and sometimes, he’s worse than okay.
The Wisconsin offensive line, and it’s defense are both pretty good, but neither is overpowering.
The Badgers are ranked ninth in the Big Ten in total offense (386.0), seventh in total defense (325.78), sixth in scoring defense (20.56), sixth in rushing defense (113.78), and eighth in pass efficiency defense (121.93).
Those numbers are a far cry from the numbers that Wisconsin used to produce during its recent glory years.
So, this is not a great team by Wisconsin’s standards.
That combined with Iowa having homefield advantage, and with the Iowa defense being arguably the best unit on either team, and you have a recipe for victory.
The Iowa offense also has shown a pulse in the last two games, which Iowa has won by a combined score of 57-16, including a 33-13 win over Northwestern on Oct. 29 at Kinnick Stadium.
But how much of this turnaround is due to the level of the opponent, considering Northwestern has lost eight games in a row, and that Purdue’s defense is suspect?
Wisconsin has won eight of the last 10 games in the series, but the current teams didn’t have anything to do with the outcomes of those games.
“It’s definitely motivation, these guys have had out number for a while and guys understand that,” said Iowa left tackle Mason Richman. “It’s not anything that goes unnoticed, but we don’t come in here everyday and say, oh, these guys are better than us.’ It’s a new game. It’s 2022 versus Wisconsin.”
Iowa defeated Wisconsin 28-7 in the final game of the 2020 Covid-shortened season at Kinnick Stadium.
“I just think it’s whoever is going to out-physical and out-tough each other,” Richman said. “And I think they’ve just done that in eight of the last ten. But in two of the last ten, we’ve done that. In 2020 I can speak on, I know we came out there and it was personal. We hadn’t won, I think, since 2015 at that time, and there was just a certain vibe and juice about the building.”
My gut feeling saying Iowa will win is only slightly more convincing than my concern about the Iowa running game performing so poorly that it would make winning virtually impossible no matter how well the defense performs.
The first step in defeating a Kirk Ferentz-coached Iowa team is to stop its running game because once that happens, it becomes more difficult to pass.
The fact that Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras lacks mobility just adds to the difficulty.
So, while I’m picking Iowa to win on Saturday, my confidence isn’t rock solid because of concerns with the Iowa offense, of course.
True freshman running back Kaleb Johnson is coming off a 200-yard rushing performance at Purdue in which he was the beneficiary of some solid blocking by his offensive line.
If Johnson could rush for half of that amount against Wisconsin, then Iowa would probably be in good shape.
But it won’t be easy due to Iowa’s deficiencies on offense, and because Wisconsin interim head coach Jim Leonhard is a defensive mastermind whose experience with competing against Iowa dates back to his days as an All-Big Ten defensive back for the Badgers.
My optimism is based mostly on my respect for the Iowa defense, and for Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker.
Iowa’s four starting defensive linemen, which doesn’t include rising star Lukas Van Ness, have combined for 79 starts, while starting linebackers Seth Benson and Jack Campbell have started 30 and 24 games, respectively.
Fifth-year senior cornerback Riley Moss has started 35 games and played in 50 games overall, while senior strong safety Kaevon Merriweather has started 21 games and played in 42 games overall.
That’s a lot of experience at all three levels on defense.
Iowa also has a solid kicking game, and excels on punt coverage.
Iowa’s senior class is filled with good players, but maybe even better leaders, especially on the defensive side.
I think this Iowa team hit a low point with the 54-10 loss at Ohio State, but instead of unraveling, Campbell and his cohorts have circled the wagons and are now poised to finish the season on a high note, and maybe even win the Big Ten West Division for the second year in a row.
Stranger things have happened.
And we’re talking about the Big Ten West Division where none of the teams are even close to being elite.
The Iowa offense still leaves much to be desired, and will leave much to be desired for the rest of the season.
But the Iowa defense is special, and Phil Parker is also special.
So, it’s just a matter of the Iowa offense not screwing things up on Saturday.
That would mean avoiding turnovers and multiple 3-and-outs.
Do that, and the defense and special teams will do the rest.