By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – To say that the Iowa football team will probably win anywhere from seven to 10 games is sort of like saying it’ll rain in April or that chocolate tastes better than sour cream.

Yes, it’s stating the obvious.

But that’s the best I can do right now under the circumstances.

If pressed on the issue, I’d say Iowa right now looks closer to being a seven-win team than a nine or a 10-win team because there are just too many uncertainties and too many starters, including the quarterback and nine starters on defense, that have to be replaced.

It makes you wonder if Kirk Ferentz can handle the enormity of the task.

Ferentz has sustained a level of success to where it’s always easy to predict at least seven wins for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa hasn’t had a losing season since finishing 4-8 in 2012.

But Iowa also has combined to lose nine games over the past two seasons.

Both of those statistics should be considered when trying to predict what to expect this coming fall.

Getting to watch the final spring practice this past Saturday at Kinnick Stadium was a nice way to spend about two hours on a bright and sunny day in April.

But it didn’t really tell us much.

It also didn’t help that some key players, including new wide receiver Tony Diaz, were withheld from Saturday’s practice for health reasons. Diaz’s ability to make plays has been the talk of spring practice.

But there is no way of knowing if it will carry to the fall.

With so many new starters on offense, defense and special teams, the 2026 season will test Iowa’s ability to reload rather than rebuild like few seasons have recently.

The schedule will also have its ups and downs as usual.

Iowa could easily start 3-0 with wins at home over Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Northern Iowa, but then comes a brutal three-game stretch with a road game at Michigan, a home game against Ohio State, and another road game at Washington.

It’s easy to picture Iowa being 3-3 after playing those six games.

If Iowa were to win nine or 10 games this fall, it would rank as one of Ferentz’s best coaching performances because it will have happened with a bunch of first-year starters, and in this challenging age of NIL and the transfer portal.

In addition to having a new starting quarterback, and nine new starters on defense, Iowa also has to replace one of the greatest return specialist in Big Ten history in Kaden Wetjen, as well as three veteran starters on the offensive line, its starting kicker and starting punter.

That’s a lot of uncertainty at critical positions.

But Kirk Ferentz loves a challenge or he wouldn’t still be coaching into his 70s.

Some of his best teams were ones from which not much was expected.

Iowa finished 10-3 in 2003 despite having to replace Heisman Trophy runner-up quarterback Brad Banks, All-America tight end Dallas Clark and four starters on the offensive line, including All-America guard Eric Steinbach.

What’s unique, and maybe a little worrisome about the current situation is that Iowa added a program record 27 players in January; 14 from the transfer portal and 13 early entrees from high school.

That’s a lot of new faces that came at the same time.

And now they’re on an accelerated course to get ready for the challenges that lie ahead.

“We’re a younger team right now and less experienced than a year ago, certainly,” Kirk Ferentz said after Saturday’s open practice. “We certainly have a lot of work to do. I think there was a lot of progress made, and I saw some things today that were a little bit better than maybe they had been the last 14 practices.

“But overall, still a lot of work to do. But the guys have been really good, and that goes back to January. So we’ll regroup here, finish up academically and finish up the semester and get the guys back here in June and start the next phase.”

Ferentz has said something similar at the end of every spring practice, and each time he has been right.

Spring practice is just one of the steps and phases along the way. It’s a time to get better, and in this particular spring, a time to get acquainted with new surroundings.

The quarterback competition is currently too close to call between sophomore Jeremy Hecklinski and junior Hank Brown, and the competition will almost certainly stretch to preseason practice.

That could either mean that Iowa has two quality candidates or that neither has performed well enough to create some separation.

Right now, we just don’t know because neither Hecklinski nor Brown have played enough to make a fair assessment.

If Iowa’s starting quarterback were to perform well this fall, and the defense under Phil Parker continues to uphold its high standard and special teams continue to excel under new special teams coordinator Chris Polizzi, then a nine or 10-win season should be within reach.

But if any of those things weren’t to happen, winning more than seven games might be a struggle for this Iowa team.