By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Though the sampling size still is small, the 2026 Big Ten football race is starting to show an identity.

And from this point of view, Iowa’s three-game stretch to start Big Ten play might not be quite as daunting as previously thought.

That isn’t to suggest that facing Michigan on the road, Ohio State at home and Washington on the road over three consecutive weeks will be anything but difficult.

Heading into the season, however, those three games seemed almost unwinnable, mostly because of the opponents, and also because two of the three games are on the road.

But now after three weeks of play, Michigan has an erratic quarterback, causing concerns on offense, while Washington’s offense has been ravaged by injuries at the skill positions.

Ohio State still is Ohio State, which means arguably the most talented team in the country. But as talented as the Buckeyes are on both offense and defense, they still blew a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter against Texas before losing 24-23 on Sept. 12 in Austin, Texas.

If Iowa could avoid losing all three of those games, its playoff hopes still would be alive since it’s widely believed that a 10-2 record would be the cut off for making the 12-team College Playoff.

Iowa’s final six Big Ten games are against in order Minnesota on the road, Wisconsin at home, at Northwestern, Purdue at home, at Illinois and Nebraska at home.

It will sort of be like playing in the Big Ten West again where Iowa often had its way.

Iowa’s final six Big Ten opponents are far from being pushovers, but none of the six appear to be anywhere close to elite, either.

The problem with evaluating teams at this stage of the season is that nonconference schedules often are filled with vastly inferior opponents that really have no chance of winning.

Two of Iowa’s three nonconference games against Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa would fall into that category as Iowa won both games by scores of 40-0 and 55-0, respectively.

Nebraska has won all three of its games by double figures, but the opponents were Ohio, Bowling Green and North Dakota.

Minnesota crushed Eastern Illinois 59-7 in the season opener and also defeated Akron 41-7 this past Saturday, with both games played at home.

But squeezed between those two wins was a 38-13 home loss to Mississippi State.

Illinois also lost to Duke at home, while Wisconsin was crushed by Notre Dame 41-13 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Northwestern has only played in two games so far after having a bye week in week two, but the Wildcats were impressive this past Saturday as they crushed Colorado 41-7 at home.

And while Purdue looks better in year two under Barry Odom, it’s still 1-2 after losing to UCLA 52-38 this past Saturday in Pasadena.

Injuries, luck and such factors as the weather will almost certainly have a lot to do with how this Big Ten football race unfolds.

Iowa survived a scare against Iowa State, winning 16-13 in week two.

But now comes the hard part; Big Ten play, starting with the winningest program in the history of college football this coming Saturday in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

“Overall, we’re at the quarter mark now,” Kirk Ferentz said after the win over Northern Iowa. “I keep talking to our guys about how fast it goes. Once you get into the season, it goes quickly. Our non-conference portion of the schedule is over.

“Bigger picture, pleased with the way the guys were in camp and then certainly pleased with the way they’ve operated the last three weeks. Now the whole idea is for us to keep growing, and hopefully we’re learning. I think they are but just learning every day and give ourselves a chance to have success as we move forward here. The bottom line is they’re playing with good effort and playing team football, which gives you an opportunity.”

Iowa appears healthy for the most part, even with several key players having missed the Northern Iowa game due to injuries, including running back Kamari Moulton and tight end DJ Vonnahme.

However, neither injury is considered serious, and barring any setbacks, there is a good chance that both will play against Michigan.

There is also a chance that No. 2 running back LJ Phillips might be ready for the Michigan game. The South Dakota transfer missed the last two games due to an ankle injury.

“We’ll be better when we get those guys back,” Kirk Ferentz said.

Even with Iowa having played what should be considered a soft nonconference schedule, the results in two of the three games were maybe even better than expected.

The way in which Iowa dismantled Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa, and the way in which the Iowa offense has made explosive plays is reason to be encouraged. The Iowa players were obviously ready and locked in for both games and they didn’t let being heavily favored affect their preparation and focus, or their game-day performance.

The Iowa State game was maybe closer than expected.

But Iowa State also might be better than expected under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers.

This marks the 12th time in 28 seasons under Kirk Ferentz that Iowa has started 3-0.

So it’s hardly automatic, even with all the overmatched nonconference opponents that Iowa has faced over the years.

A lot can change for better or worse from one week to the next, but right now Iowa is riding high heading into Big Ten play.

“Happy with the start, and then I think everybody’s aware we’ve got a lot of work to do,” Kirk Ferentz said. “We’ll reinforce that tomorrow, and they’ll see that on film. But that’s exciting. That’s what the season’s all about, so just happy with the start.”