By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – After eight games and six victories, the 2026 Iowa football team now has an identity in which trying to predict how the offense will perform is virtually impossible.

The Iowa offense is more unpredictable than a gnat’s flight pattern.

Under-whelming one week; over-powering the next week.

That describes the Iowa offense in its last two games against Minnesota on Oct. 24 in Minneapolis and against Wisconsin this past Saturday at Kinnick Stadium..

A week after losing at Minnesota 13-10 in a turnover-plagued mess for the Iowa offense, Iowa put a 30-0 “ass-whipping” on the Badgers, which are exactly the words that Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell used to describe the loss afterwards.

Iowa was balanced on offense with 222 passing yards from quarterback Hank Brown, and with 140 rushing yards from seven different rushers, including tight end DJ Vonnahme and receivers Tony Diaz and Evan James.

Iowa was without leading rusher Kamari Moulton due to a season-ending shoulder injury that he suffered against Minnesota, so it truly was running game by committee as Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester used four different positions as rushers against the Badgers: running back, quarterback, tight end and wide receiver.

The offense played with both finesse and physicality, and was even unpredictable and explosive at times.

It was a good mix of execution and imagination, much like the 41-24 win at Washington on Oct. 9.

And while it isn’t unusual for a team coached by Kirk Ferentz to bounce back from adversity, what’s unusual about his current team, at least on offense, is not knowing what to expect from one game to the next.

With records of 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten, Iowa still is alive in the playoff hunt, though hanging by a thread, and almost certainly having to win the rest of its games, with 6-2 Northwestern up next on Saturday in Evanston, Illinois, and in the newly renovated Ryan Field.

What offense for Iowa will show up on Saturday?

The one that sputtered, self-destructed and hardly used explosive wide receiver Tony Diaz at Minnesota?

Or the one that executed with precision, showed balance and made getting Diaz the ball a priority against Wisconsin?

“It’s a learning process,” Kirk Ferentz said in his post-game press conference on Saturday. “Every time you’re out there, it’s a learning process, and this is a younger team compared to last season. So, I think just maybe having an appreciation—they appreciate the fact that it’s going to be hard and competitive, but maybe we just didn’t have the proper focus and attention to detail on the little things that you have to do.

“That’s nobody’s fault; it’s just one of those things that happens. So, I think we did a little better there, and people asked about the ball security stuff last week. That was the most apparent thing.”

In most cases Kirk Ferentz’s teams, both good and average, are easy to predict on defense, while the offense is usually viewed with suspicion.

The defense every so often drifts from its normal behavior, but for the most part, Phil Parker’s crew is consistent and highly effective.

The Iowa offense, on the other hand, almost always has been a work in progress under four different offensive coordinators, sometimes a slow and frustrating work in progress, with a few exceptions.

There have been multiple seasons under Kirk Ferentz in which the offense has been easy to predict for both good and bad reasons.

In 2008, the offense wrapped itself around Shonn Greene’s running skills and helped to turn a 3-3 record at the halfway point into a 9-4 finished product.

Everybody knew that Greene would be featured on offense, but the offense still clicked down the stretch despite being predictable.

On the flipside, the offense was almost dysfunctional at times in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, drawing national attention for its shortcomings.

But sadly, fans knew what to expect heading into every game, just like they did in 2008, but for happier reasons.

Fans also knew what to expect in 2002 when Brad Banks led what was arguably Kirk Ferentz’s best offense at Iowa; a balanced and explosive unit that consistently performed at a high level, with exception to the second half against Iowa State and the second half against USC in the Orange Bowl.

Iowa’s 2004 team, which won a share of the Big Ten title, was very predictable on offense because it barely was able to run the ball after the running back position was decimated by injuries.

Drew Tate carried an immense load as the quarterback in 2004. He would go on to make first-team All-Big Ten, and did so without having much balance on offense.

Opponents knew what to expect from Tate and his cohorts as the season wore on. But they still couldn’t stop them.

Iowa’s 2015 squad that finished 12-2 was powered by a mix of C.J. Beathard’s effectiveness at quarterback and a running game that averaged 181.7 rushing yards per game.

Beathard played with moxie and grit, and with some imagination.

But you knew what to expect because he was consistent, as was the running game for the most part.

Fans also knew what to expect from the offense last season, which was a lot of running by 6-foot-2, 235-pound quarterback Mark Gronowski, who scored 16 rushing touchdowns. Gronowski would often make first downs on his own just by plowing through and over defenders.

He at times played quarterback like a fullback.

But again, you knew what to expect from him, and from the offense.

With the current Iowa offense, however, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it will perform.

On any given Friday or Saturday, it can be a bad as 2023 or as good as 2015.

One offense that comes to mind is Iowa’s 2017 offense, which had Nate Stanley in his first season as the starting quarterback.

Stanley and his cohorts were part of maybe the biggest change on offense from one week to the next under Kirk Ferentz.

In the ninth game of the 2017 season, Iowa crushed Ohio State 55-24 at Kinnick Stadium as Stanley threw five touchdown passes.

But then just a week later, Stanley struggled just to complete a pass against Wisconsin in Madison, throwing for just 41 yards in a 38-14 loss in his home state.

Both of Iowa’s touchdowns came on two pick-sixes by All-America cornerback Josh Jackson.

Iowa would go on to finish 8-5 in 2017, capped by a  27-20 victory over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Iowa also crushed Nebraska 56-14 in 2017, and that came just six days after losing to Purdue 25-14 at Kinnick Stadium.

So yes, Hawkeye fans have ridden on this offensive roller coaster before, but the 2017 season was also nearly a decade ago.

The five games left on Iowa’s current schedule are all very winnable, but also losable if the offense struggles.

There is no more uncertainty at quarterback where Hank Brown has finally solidified himself as the starter over Jeremy Hecklinski.

Brown completed 20-of-24 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Wisconsin, and was well on his way to becoming Iowa’s first 300-yard passer in a game since Stanley in 2019 until Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester took his foot off the gas with his play calling in the second half.

“I want to make the point again: we like both quarterbacks,” Kirk Ferentz said. “Jeremy’s a good player and a good quarterback, and Hank is, too. No matter who’s in there, it’s going to have some ups and downs because they’re inexperienced, younger guys.

“My personal feeling is that no matter who’s in there, they’re going to get better if we just are smart about it.”

As you try to predict what will happen against Northwestern this coming Saturday, it’s difficult because the Iowa offense is so unpredictable, so hot and cold.

Northwestern is certainly a worthy and dangerous opponent, but is also coming off a 34-26 loss at Oregon on Saturday in which it allowed 336 passing yards to Oregon backup quarterback Dylan Raiola.

If the good version of Hank Brown shows up on Saturday with the good Iowa offense, then the Wildcats could be in serious trouble on their home field.

But if Iowa were to lay another egg on offense, the defense and special teams would have to perform almost flawlessly. But even that might not be enough to beat this Northwestern team.