By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Sometimes, being good takes being lucky, and being in the right place at the right time.

The Iowa football team, for example, could be in the right place at the right time as it prepares to face Northwestern on Saturday at the newly renovated  Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois.

News broke Friday afternoon that Northwestern will be without starting quarterback Aidan Chiles for Saturday’s game due to an upper-body injury.

Chiles, who transferred from Michigan State, has accounted for 23 touchdowns and is both a running and passing threat. He has 1,898 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns with just one interception. On the ground, he has 86 carries for 274 yards and 10 scores.

The importance of his loss, which was first reported by ESPN’s Pete Thamel, and the potential impact it will have on Saturday’s game, can’t be over-stated.

Chiles already has faced Iowa once in 2024 while playing for Michigan State, and he was arguably the difference in the game. Chiles completed 22-of-30 passes for 256 yards and one touchdown in Michigan State’s 32-20 victory in East Lansing, Michigan.

He also rushed for 51 yards against Iowa two years ago.

However, a strong case still could’ve been made for Iowa winning on Saturday, even with Chiles playing.

But without Chiles behind center, Northwestern’s explosive offense becomes far less dynamic, while convincing yourself that Iowa will prevail on Saturday becomes much easier.

Nicco Marchiol is expected to replace Chiles in the starting lineup.  The Arizona native played the past four seasons at West Virginia where he passed for 1,462 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 363 yards in 27 game appearances.

So the Iowa defense won’t be facing a young and inexperienced quarterback on Saturday. But they will be facing a quarterback that only started eight games for West Virginia over four seasons, though he was 6-2 in those eight starts.

Both teams are 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten and just one loss from being all but eliminated from the playoff hunt.

The Hawkeyes are coming off an impressive 30-0 victory over Wisconsin last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium – Iowa’s fifth straight win in the series and were ranked No. 19 in the first college playoff rankings.

Iowa also has won 23 of its last 28 games in the month of November dating back to 2019.

Northwestern, on the other hand, is coming off a 34-26 loss at Oregon last Saturday; a game in which its defense was shredded for 441 yards, including 336 passing yards by Oregon backup quarterback and Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola.

David Braun has a 25-21 record as the Northwestern head coach after taking over on an interim basis in 2023.

Former Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald had hired Braun as his defensive coordinator in January 2023, but then allegations of widespread hazing within the Northwestern program surfaced, causing Fitzgerald to be fired on July 10, 2023 after a six-month investigation.

Fitzgerald is now in his first season as the Michigan State head coach, while Braun shed the interim label during his first season in 2023 as he led Northwestern to an 8-5  record, capped by a win over Utah in the Las Vega Bowl.

The eight wins were the most for any first-year Northwestern head coach since 1903.

What Braun accomplished in year one looks even more impressive when you consider that Northwestern combined to finish just 4-19 in Fitzgerald’s last two seasons as head coach in 2021 and 2022, including 1-11 in 2022.

The Wildcats took a dip in 2024, finishing just 4-8, but have since bounced back to compile a 13-8 record since the start of last season when they finished 7-6.

Braun added a key addition this past offseason when he hired veteran coach Chip Kelly as his offensive coordinator.

Kelly’s impact has been significant, considering Northwestern currently ranks second in the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 438.1 yards per game.

Chiles has flourished under Kelly’s watch, while wide receiver Griffin Wilde has been a key contributor since transferring from South Dakota State prior to last season.

Chiles threw for 281 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 93 yards and another score in the loss to Oregon last Saturday, while  Wilde had five catches for 146 yards and a 64-yard touchdown strike from Chiles, who transferred from Michigan State prior to this season.

“They have a lot of guys that have been there that have really grown and done really well and then some additions; the quarterback, the receiver from South Dakota State, just to name two,” Kirk Ferentz said. “Guys that are really good football players. The running back is an excellent player, and he’s been there.

“Then defensively, they’re a really good team. They have some very good players. Most of them home-grown and playing at a high level. Same thing about their special teams. It’s a really good football team.”

Ferentz made his comments about Northwestern on Tuesday, and probably with the belief that Chiles would play on Saturday.

Ferentz will almost certainly remind his players that football is the ultimate team sport and that Northwestern is a worthy opponent, even without Chiles.

And while that’s true, Iowa still potentially catches a huge break with Chiles not playing.

Of course, the Iowa players and coaches still have to seize the opportunity against a Northwestern squad that will be playing at home, and with a lot on the line.

There is always the chance that the Northwestern players will rally behind Marchiol, and that he will feed off the energy from his teammates and play well.

The respect that Ferentz has for Northwestern’s program is similar to how Braun feels about the Iowa program.

“Offensively, I think that staff has done a great job the last couple of years of staying true to who they are; there’s a clear identity, but they continue to evolve,” Braun said of Iowa. “Obviously, for Iowa, it’s going to start with the running game, but they have weapons on the perimeter, and their quarterback played at an extremely high level last week.

“And we haven’t even mentioned their special teams, something that is a trademark of Iowa football and has been for a long time. We will be challenged. We have our hands full, and we understand that. But we’re also excited for the opportunity that’s right in front of us.”

Iowa’s defense also drew praise from Braun, and rightfully so, with Iowa ranked fourth in FBS in scoring defense (12.5) and rushing defense (79.0) and 12th in total defense (275.5)

“It starts in their front seven,” Braun said. “I mean, they are just so disruptive, so technically sound, so well coached, and it’s the consistency that shows up from those guys. Like they may give up one play, but they’re not going to give up a second, then a third.”

Iowa also has a history of playing well in November under Ferentz. He was asked about that at his weekly press conference on Tuesday.

“That’s one of the great things about it because this is where things get interesting,” Ferentz said. “We have a high number of guys not practicing right now. Not just, like, in the two-deep, but guys in general.

“So, you start getting stressed a little and stressed in different ways in November typically. Emotionally, physically, there’s a lot of things that beneath the surface that are taking place. Ultimately, you have to be able to perform, find a way to get it done, and that’s really what it gets down to if you are going to have a successful season.”

Ferentz makes it a point to remind his players every year about the importance of finishing strong in November, and about winning on the road.

“If you are going to be successful in a conference, you have to win on the road,” Ferentz said. “You’ve got to find a way, because you’re going play half your games — and I understand we play an odd number of games, so it’s not technically half, but over two years it’s half your games on the road. If you want to use that as a crutch, you can’t. You’re not going to be very successful.

“Same thing about November. It’s just meeting the challenges, whatever they may be, and every November has got them. Having the right mindset and then you got to go out and play, and we’re going to found out. Hopefully it’s positive.”

The new Ryan Field opened on Oct. 2. The Wildcats are 3-0 at the venue with wins over Penn State, Ball State and Rutgers.

The winning streak has to end at some point, though, and it very well could happen on Saturday, especially if Iowa can run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

And with so much on the line, Iowa should be ready to meet that challenge Whether Iowa is able to meet the challenge will be decided on the field.

Braun coached previously at his alma mater, Winona State, Culver-Stockton, UC-Davis, Northern Iowa and North Dakota State before moving to Northwestern.

He will eventually be in high demand if the Wildcats continue to perform at this level.

But against Kirk Ferentz on Saturday, the prediction here is that Braun will be reminded why he’s facing the Big Ten’s all-time winningest head coach.

Northwestern’s defense is vulnerable as shown in the loss at Oregon, while Iowa has the reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week in quarterback Hank Brown, who completed 20-of-24 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Wisconsin.

Northwestern has a rising star as a head coach, an explosive offense and will be playing in a rebuilt stadium that everyone says is truly spectacular.

But Northwestern also has an injured starting quarterback and a defense that leaves much to be desired.

Prediction: Iowa 31, Northwestern 21

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Iowa (6-2, 3-2) vs. Northwestern (6-2, 3-2)

When: Saturday, 6:35 p.m.

Where: Evanston, Illinois, Ryan Field (35,000)

TV: FOX

Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network

Series history: Iowa holds a 55-28-3 advantage in the series that began with a 12-6 Iowa victory in 1897. The Hawkeyes are 27-16-3 all-time in road games against the Wildcats.

Saturday’s game is Iowa’s first on NU’s campus since 2021 — a 17-12 victory. The Hawkeyes won 10-7 at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Nov. 4, 2023.

The new Ryan Field opened on Oct. 2. The Wildcats are 3-0 at the venue with wins over Penn State, Ball State and Rutgers.

Iowa won 21 consecutive games over Northwestern prior to a 31-20 Wildcat win in 1995 in Evanston. The series is tied at 14 since Northwestern snapped the winning streak.

Iowa has won the last four and five of the last six meetings in the series. Six of the last nine meetings have been decided by seven points or less