By Mike Hlas

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa – If the good people of the great state of Iowa haven’t grasped or embraced the prospect yet, why are they waiting?

Iowa is headed to the College Football Playoff.

Believe it, playa.

I know, I know, I know. There are three weeks left in the regular-season and 10,000 variables out there. My premise obviously starts with the Hawkeyes winning their final three games, at home against Purdue Saturday night (a walkover), at Illinois (Iowa’s remaining Game of the Year), and at home against Nebraska (against a Matt Rhule team amid its annual collapse).

Iowa is better than those three teams. Judging by its dominance of Wisconsin and Northwestern the last two games, it’s more than capable of powering through November with authority.

So that would put the Hawkeyes at 10-2. Can the CFP deny a 10-2 team from its 11 spots that aren’t going to a Group of Six club? Absolutely. Will it? Maybe, but I have doubts.

To detail why I think Iowa will leapfrog from 19th in last week’s initial CFP rankings to 11th by the committee’s Decision Day of Dec. 6, a lot of mumbo-jumbo follows. You have been warned. That said, here are the ifs, buts, candy and nuts.

First, let’s acknowledge the primary “if,” which is if the Hawkeyes run the table against Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. Drop just one of these three, and you’re 9-3 with an empty feeling. It’s playoffs or bust these days, and that will be gospel next year when the 24-team playoff debuts.

Iowa should pass four teams in Tuesday night’s CFP shuffling. They are LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri and Ohio State, all 6-3 after losing Saturday.

Let’s say Iowa is 15th in the CFP Tuesday. It would need to climb into the top 11 at season’s end for a playoff berth. What else must go the Hawkeyes’ way between now and then?

A lot. But a lot will happen. And now, the gobbledy-gook here begins:

CFP LOCKS

Georgia (8-1)

Notre Dame (8-1)

Miami (8-1)

Alabama (7-2)

Automatic Group of Six berth (Boise State or New Mexico or somebody)

Why? Look at their remaining schedules. None should lose again until the playoffs, and Georgia probably won’t lose there.

HIGHLY PROBABLE

UCLA (9-0)

Utah (9-0)

These are the nation’s last two unbeatens, yet neither is 100 percent to make the CFP. Ninety-five percent, maybe. If UCLA downs Illinois at home and Michigan on the road, it is going to the Big Ten championship game even if it falls at home to USC in its regular-season finale. If it loses at Michigan — hey, it could — the Bruins no longer will be above the fray.

Utah’s next two games are challenging, at Arizona (7-2) and TCU. It figures to go to the Big 12 championship, but that game is likely to be a coin-flip no matter who the Utes would face.

LOOKING GOOD

Tennessee (7-2)

Indiana (8-1)

Texas Tech (8-1)

Its 34-6 rout over Kentucky last Saturday stamped Tennessee as a team on the inside of the CFP right now. It goes to Texas A&M Saturday, hosts LSU, and finishes at Vanderbilt.

Indiana isn’t a playoff lock despite the current rankings. You can’t assume the Hoosiers beat USC in Bloomington or Washington in Seattle given they have five one-score wins this season and have been a shell of their 2025 offensive self. If they split those two games, though, they’ll go to the CFP for the third-straight year

Texas Tech is 8-1. It faces a pair of current 6-3 teams on the road the next two weeks, Oklahoma State and Baylor.

DON’T BE SO SURE ABOUT …

Texas (7-2)

Houston (7-2)

USC (7-2)

BYU (7-2)

Wake Forest (8-1)

Right now, Texas is in the CFP. But the Longhorns play at LSU Saturday and at old rival Texas A&M in its finale. The venues won’t be friendly and the opposition ought to be fired up. Would a 3-loss Texas get the nod over a 2-loss Iowa? Possibly, but a 3-loss Texas could be a fifth- or sixth-place team in the SEC, and that would be a bad look for the CFP.

Houston was two spots ahead of Iowa in last week’s ranking, and should win out with games at Colorado and West Virginia, and at home against Baylor. But would the CFP committee take more than two Big 12 teams? Ooh, that would be something to try to sell to ESPN, let alone the SEC and Big Ten. The Cougars’ last three wins, by the way, were by one score.

USC could have a big closing kick and make the playoff, but a sweep seems unlikely with games at Indiana and UCLA.

BYU has no business losing any of its remaining three games, Baylor at home, at Kansas, and Cincinnati at home. The Cougars’ win over Notre Dame will count for a lot. It may have to get into the Big 12 title game and win it, though.

Wake Forest’s strength-of-schedule isn’t great at 60th, nd it has a formidable game Saturday at 7-2 SMU. If it gets to 11-1, can it play Miami heads-up in the ACC title game?

NAH

Kentucky, Oregon, Ohio State, Arizona, LSU, Ole Miss, SMU and everybody else.

Why? Do I need reasons for everything?

All of this tells you Iowa has the opposite of an easy playoff path. But for most of the non-locks to do what they must the rest of the way is mathematically unlikely, especially given the fickleness of the college game this season.

Meanwhile, I see the Hawkeyes closing the season with a 5-game winning streak, and that matters. If they take it to Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska the way they did to Wisconsin and Northwestern the last two weeks, eyes on the Hawkeyes will open wide.

Iowa is third in the nation in scoring defense, ninth in total defense. That kind of ‘D’ won’t vanish in the next three games.

Granted, the Hawkeyes don’t have the one big victory they thought they did when they beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes own no wins over currently ranked teams. Their strength-of-schedule to date, according to ESPN, is 34th. That’s OK, but not overwhelming.

Wins at Washington and Northwestern may not be big wows to America, but Iowa controlled both games that had been expected to be close. The Hawkeyes’ ugly 13-10 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 24 could end up being its scarlet (or maroon) letter, but at least the Gophers aren’t a Rutgers or Purdue.

It will be easier for Iowa to reach the CFP than the Big Ten title game. Should Indiana lose once more and multiple teams tie for second-place at 7-2 — ahhh, that’s for someone else to decipher.

Hey, let Indiana play UCLA in Indianapolis. Although, I’d prefer UCLA-USC in Indianapolis just to see the league-championship game played before fewer fans than the 3,178 that came to the 2020 pandemic edition at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Sitting on the fence is a good way to get splinters in a very awkward place. I’m repeating what I said in the beginning of this column. Iowa is going to the CFP. If I’m wrong, well, c’est la vie. You can still enjoy the Whozit Bowl in Wherever, Florida.

More dominoes will fall the Hawkeyes’ way Saturday, however. You’ll see.