By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Kirk Ferentz never would say this out of respect for his opponent, which in this case is struggling Purdue, but somebody should say it:

The Iowa football team is better than Purdue, and therefore should prevail when the teams meet on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium before a sellout crowd.

Iowa is favored by 17.5 points, and right fully so, considering Purdue has lost three straight games, the low point being last Saturday’s 34-29 loss at home to Maryland, which had been winless in conference play, and had its head coach, Mike Locksley, fired just days earlier.

Iowa has a vastly superior defense, an advantage on special teams and will be playing in at home with a trip to the college playoff on the line.

It is widely believed that Iowa would have to win its final three regular-season games against Purdue, at Illinois and against Nebraska at home to have a chance to make the playoff with what would be a 10-2 record.

So from a motivational standpoint, and from a depth and talent standpoint; Iowa would appear to have a clear advantage over Purdue.

And no disrespect to Purdue head coach Barry Odom, but he will be matched against the Big Ten’s all-time winningest head coach in 71-year-old Kirk Ferentz, who has a 216-130 record as the head Hawk, and is in his 28th season, making him the longest tenured head coach in the country.

Iowa will also be playing at home, has won 24 of its last 29 games in the month of November, and has delivered three shutouts this season.

Now with all of that being said, Purdue, of course, still has a chance on Saturday.

Purdue certainly has issues, but this isn’t like the first and third games of this season when Iowa destroyed Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa by scores of 40-0 and 55-0, respectively.

Neither team with Northern in its name had a legitimate chance to beat Iowa, just from a talent standpoint.

Purdue, on the other hand, has a talented quarterback in Ryan Browne, who is surrounded by talented skill players. Browne ranks second in the Big Ten, and 19th nationally, in passing with 2,260 yards.

“It starts with the quarterback,” Kirk Ferentz said. “He’s a really good player. As we were getting ready for the Minnesota game, that really stood out. They really executed well. They’re a dangerous team offensively.”

Defense is where Purdue struggles the most, allowing a whopping 433.3 yards per game.

Part of the fallout from the Maryland loss was that it cost Kevin Kane his job as defensive coordinator as he was fired the day after the Maryland loss last Sunday.

“Then defensively, they made a change with the coordinator spot, but they’re playing hard there,” Kirk Ferentz said. “Bottom line is it’s week-to-week in the Big Ten, and we need to be at our best and be ready.”

Odom’s decision to fire his defensive coordinator is certainly a distraction, but Ferentz believes that Odom’s background as a defensive coach will help to stabilize things.

Odom was the defensive coordinator for Memphis from 2012 to 2014, for Missouri in 2015 before becoming its head coach, and for Arkansas from 2020 to 2022.

Odom spent four seasons as the Missouri head coach from 2016 to 2019, compiling a 25-25 overall record.

He was also the head coach for UNLV for two seasons in 2023 and 2024, compiling a 19-8 overall record and a 12-3 mark in Mountain West Conference play.

Odom’s success at UNLV led to Purdue hiring him.

“He’s a really good coach,” Kirk Ferentz said of Odom. “He was a really good defensive coach. I can’t imagine the structure is going to change a lot.”

Purdue was thought to be turning the corner in Odom’s second season as head coach when it whipped Minnesota 41-13 on Oct. 10 in West Lafayette, Indiana.

That is the same Minnesota team that defeated Iowa 13-10 on Oct. 24 in Minneapolis.

Purdue also nearly defeated a very respectable Wake Forest squad in week two, losing 38-36 in double overtime at home.

However, since beating the Gophers, Purdue has lost three straight games to Washington (38-26), Penn State (31-17) and Maryland (34-29).

“If you go back earlier in the season, they lost a double-overtime game to Wake Forest, who has gone on, and they’re having a good season,” Kirk Ferentz said. “It just tells you a little bit about the firepower.

“Good on special teams. Play really hard. The kicker and the punter are both transfers, doing a good job there. Then the return guys have done a good job too. They’re capable. All their core guys do a good job, so that’s one area that we’re going to have to be really at our best with.

“Offensively, been very impressed with them, and they have several 400-plus yard games, almost 500 yards. You look back. UCLA has got a good football team. The Wake Forest game. Minnesota, 464 yards. Then last week 424 yards.”

One way Purdue could pull off an upset would be if Iowa continues to be careless with the football. Iowa has fumbled nine times in the last three games, losing three of them.

Iowa fumbled four time in the loss at Minnesota, losing one, and threw three interceptions.

To say that Ferentz is frustrated with how often the ball has hit the ground recently would be an understatement.

“Sometimes you can’t explain what happens in a game, but a couple of weeks ago, eight loose balls, I mean, that’s just ridiculous, quite frankly,” Ferentz said of the Minnesota game. “It gets down to concentration, in my opinion.

“Experience factors in there, but we’re nine games into it, so everybody is a veteran at this at this point, unless you just got out there. I’d give you a hall pass there maybe, but we have to do a better job. I think we will, but we have to do it.”

If Iowa takes care of the football and stays ahead of the chains behind its running game, Purdue will be in serious trouble on Saturday.

Nobody respects an opponent more than Kirk Ferentz does.

Some of what Ferentz says might just be coach speak, but Ferentz also knows from decades of experience that almost anything can happen when two Big Ten opponents square off.

Purdue only has to beat Iowa once on Saturday. It isn’t a five or seven-game series where the best team usually prevails.

Purdue also has  knack for doing it; having won four of the last seven games in the series.

Iowa has won the last two games in the series by scores of 24-3 in 2022 and 20-14 in 2023, but the teams haven’t played since then.

So again, this is a game that Iowa should win as the No. 15 team in the latest playoff rankings.

But upsets are always a threat to happen, and Iowa has certainly been on the wrong side of some upsets under Ferentz, including some against Purdue.

This just doesn’t feel like an upset brewing with Purdue reeling and with Iowa surging behind its vaunted defense and special teams, and with quarterback Hank Brown now healthy again and playing perhaps his best ever.

Prediction: Iowa 34, Purdue 17

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When: Saturday, 6:30 p.m.

Where: Kinnick Stadium, (69,250)

TV: NBC

Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network

Series history: Purdue holds a 50-41-3 advantage in the series that began with a 16-0 Iowa win in 1910. Iowa has won two straight in the series.

Iowa won the last meeting, 20-14, in 2023 in Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes are 23-21-2 all-time in games played in Iowa City.

Saturday’s game is the first time Barry Odom has squared off against the Hawkeyes as a head coach. Odom was an assistant coach at Missouri in 2010 when Iowa beat the Tigers in the 2010 Insight Bowl.

Iowa and the Boilermakers battled to a 21-21 tie at West Lafayette in 1994. That contest marked the last tie game for Iowa before the college football tiebreaker system was put in place.