Harty: Hard to pick against the Badgers under the circumstances
IOWA CITY, Iowa – Are you like me when it comes to the Iowa football team?
You’re more confident after back-to-back victories over Minnesota and Purdue than you were after the 38-31 loss to Northwestern on Oct. 1 at Kinnick Stadium.
But you still have doubts about whether Iowa can defeat an elite opponent because it has yet to do so this season.
Iowa hasn’t played anything close to an elite opponent this season, but still has two losses, with the other loss coming against five-time FCS national champion North Dakota State on a last-second field goal.
The Bison are elite at their level, but not at the major college level.
Iowa finally will be tested by an elite opponent when it faces No. 10 Wisconsin on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.
“That was definitely our goal to get better every week, and I think the last two weeks we’ve definitely done that,” said Iowa junior offensive lineman Ike Boetgger. “Our goal now is to take another step this week.”
Don’t be misled by Wisconsin’s 1-2 record in conference play because the two losses were against No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan by seven points each. The Badgers arguably have the two best losses in college football, if there is such a thing.
The loser on Saturday will be dealt a severe blow in the quest to win the Big Ten West Division, but especially the Badgers.
It doesn’t matter that Wisconsin’s two losses were against Ohio State and Michigan by seven points each because a loss to the Buckeyes or Wolverines still counts as much in the standings as a loss to Illinois or Purdue, or even to Rutgers if you could imagine anybody losing to Rutgers at this stage.
The Badgers have little margin for error in trying to meet the standards that are now common for them after more than two decades of excellence.
It is reasonable to assume that Wisconsin will be on a mission against Iowa on Saturday to do what it is famous for doing.
“It’s Wisconsin football, they like to run it down your throat and they’ve also got some other things they can throw at you,” said Iowa junior linebacker Josey Jewell. “So just a lot of power stuff. They’re just a real good football team and we’ve got to be ready.”
Being ready is one thing. Proving it is another.
This is a game in which Iowa can prove something. Beat the Badgers and Iowa will start to become relevant again.
But lose to the Badgers and Iowa would be dismissed as just another average Big Ten team until it could prove otherwise.
Last year’s game in Madison, Wis., hardly was a work of art for Iowa, which escaped from Camp Randall Stadium with a 10-6 victory partly because of luck. The Badgers were poised to score a touchdown from Iowa’s 1-yard line when former quarterback Joel Stave stepped on somebody foot after taking the snap from center. Stave stumbled and lost the football, which then was recovered by Iowa defensive lineman Faith Ekakitie.
Wisconsin and Iowa share many similarities on offense, including relying on a productive rushing attack to help set up play-action passing.
Where they differ is on defense. Iowa operates mostly out of 4-3 formation, while the Badgers use a 3-4 setup in which their linebackers blitz from different spots on the field.
That is a concern, considering how Iowa has struggled to protect quarterback C.J. Beathard in the pocket this season. He was sacked six times against Northwestern.
“We haven’t played a three-four team yet this season and we don’t usually play a lot of three-four teams in a course of a season,” Beathard said. “They’re a great team and we’ve got a lot of respect for them. They play hard. They play tough.
“It’s going to be a tough, physical football game, and it’s just a matter of us staying after it.”
Staying after it is another way of saying don’t get discouraged if a play only gains two or three yards. Both teams had numerous plays like that in last year’s game.
It takes patience, persistence and the ability to keep pounding to win a game like this.
“No matter what happens in the game, you have to stay focused and keep pushing,” said Beathard, who has an 18-4 record as Iowa’s starting quarterback.
Injuries and turnovers often play a significant role in games where neither team can establish any momentum. That was the case last season with Stave’s fumble and with the Badgers being without star running back Corey Clement.
Both teams are dealing with key injuries in preparation for Saturday’s game.
Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz didn’t rule out the possibility of tight end George Kittle playing against the Badgers on Saturday. Kittle, who scored the only touchdown in last season’s game against Wisconsin, sprained his foot against Purdue last Saturday.
So it’s reasonable to assume that even if Kittle does play, he will not be at full strength.
Wisconsin linebacker Vince Biegel also might be in the same situation after missing the last two games because of a foot injury.
This game in addition to having a big impact on the conference standings is a chance for Iowa to make a statement against an opponent who sort of patterns itself after the Hawkeyes, only the Badgers have been better.
Wisconsin has won six of seven games following a loss dating back to the 2014 season. The Badgers also have won 11 of their last 12 trophy games against Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. The lone loss was the 10-6 setback against Iowa last season.
“You look back the last six years, the level they’ve played at in the conference, it’s awfully impressive, and really quite frankly it’s been that way since 1999,” Ferentz said. “They’ve had a good program, a strong program, and have done an excellent job, and the common denominator seems to be that their players are good. They play extremely hard, and they’re very, very well-coached, and that’s kind of been consistent for quite some time now.”
The road team has won the last five games in the series, so it’s hard to say that Iowa should have an advantage by playing at home.
“The thing about them, they’re tough to play in Madison, they’re tough to play in Kinnick,” Ferentz said of the Badgers. “No matter where they go, they play well, and that’s a sign of a good team.
“Bottom line is we’re going to have to really improve. We’re going to have to work hard and go into the game knowing that anything that we do get that’s good we’re going to have to earn. And that’s how it should be.”
Iowa could have an advantage at quarterback where Beathard has far more experience than Wisconsin redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook.
The fact that Hornibrook is left handed is unusual because almost all of the quarterbacks that Iowa plays against are right handed.
“What I’ve seen on film so far is he’s a play-making quarterback, but I don’t think he’s that mobile in the pocket or the open field and things like that,” said Iowa senior cornerback Desmond King, who had two interceptions against Wisconsin last season. “He’s more of a pocket passer and a left-hander. So it’s going to be a little off, but it’s something we have to get used to it.”
This game has all the makings of a classic border showdown between two teams that can’t afford to lose anymore. It might not have many big plays, but it will have big hits and serious ramifications.
It is just hard to pick against the Badgers under the circumstances because they have looked better than Iowa has this season and because they will be more desperate to win on Saturday.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Iowa 17