My biggest concern about the 2018 Iowa football team might surprise some of you
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – An 8-4 record was my prediction for the 2018 Iowa football team before the Kids Day practice this past Saturday, and two days later, nothing has changed.
Nothing I saw on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium caused me think that Iowa was better or worse than I had previously thought.
The same strengths and weaknesses that seemed apparent before practice were also apparent during practice, including what could be a rock-solid defensive line, a potential star at quarterback and a reliable place-kicker, countered by an underwhelming group of receivers, unreliable punters and inexperienced linebackers.
Predicting an 8-4 regular-season record hardly is going out on a limb, considering Iowa’s track record under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
Iowa has won between six and eight games in nine of 19 seasons under Ferentz, including the past two seasons when the Hawkeyes finished 8-5 in both cases.
As for what is stopping me from predicting more than just eight wins? It's just that there are too many uncertainties and potential weaknesses with this team.
If I were to pick one position on the team that concerns me the most it would be the offensive line slightly ahead of punter and linebacker.
That is due partly to how important the offensive line is in Iowa’s run-oriented scheme, but also to how inconsistent the offensive line was last season, and in 2016 when Iowa won the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s best college offensive line.
The honor seemed more like a life-time achievement award for Ferentz, because if you remember, the Iowa running game sputtered at times in the 2016 season, including rushing for only 34 yards on 25 carries during a 23-21 loss to North Dakota State, for just 30 yards on 26 carries during a 41-14 loss at Penn State and for just 83 yards on 27 carries during a 17-9 loss to Wisconsin..
It should come as no surprise that Iowa lost all five games last season in which it was held to fewer than 100 rushing yards, or that it won all eight games in which it surpassed 100 rushing yards.
That has pretty much been the case since 2015, and for most of the time under Ferentz.
Iowa is tough to beat when it rushes for at least 100 yards, but also extremely vulnerable when it doesn’t.
So that’s why I’m putting so much emphasis on the offensive line and why it concerns so much.
The fact that starting tackles Tristan Wirfs and Alaric Jackson will be suspended for the first game is a distraction that could’ve easily been avoided in both cases, and it could prove costly if their less-experienced replacements struggle against what is an aggressive Northern Illinois defense.
But it’s just a one-game suspension in both cases, so by week two, Iowa should be at full strength with fifth-year senior center Keegan Render leading the way with 20 career starts under his belt.
But what is full strength?
And how effective will it be against top competition?
"Like most years, it's going to be a work in progress, and we've got some guys that have played," Ferentz said at media day. "I think Keegan Render is probably understated, and I told the NFL guys that. They've started coming through, probably nine guys through now the last three days.
"He's one of those players that I think is better than you think. There's nothing flashy about him. When you guys interview him, he's not going to try to give you any quotes or anything like that, but he's just a quality player."
The glass-half-full perspective would say that Iowa has three full-time starters returning in Wirfs, Jackson and Render, while the glass-half-empty perspective would say that Iowa only has one full-time starter returning from last season if injuries were taken into account.
Ike Boettger and Boone Myers barely played last season due to injuries, but they almost certainly would have been full-time starters, and the offensive line struggled without them.
Combine their losses with All-Big Ten guard Sean Welsh having used up his eligibility last season, and with center James Daniels having skipped his senior season to play in the NFL and there is clearly a transition underway.
The bright side to Boettger and Myers both being injured is that it allowed for Wirfs and for Render to gain valuable experience as full-time starters.
I don’t want to give the impression that Iowa is without talent on the offensive line because that would be unfair and inaccurate.
Render is talented and reliable, while Wirfs and Jackson both have star potential just based on how far each has come in a short time.
The 6-foot-7, 320-pound Jackson was penciled in as the starter at left tackle heading into the 2017 season opener despite only being a redshirt freshman, so the injuries to Boettger and Myers didn’t really affect his playing status, while the 6-5, 320-pound Wirfs is the first true freshman to start at tackle under Ferentz.
But neither is close to being a finished product, and there still could be growing pains to endure.
Another concern with the offensive line is that Nate Stanley's biggest weakness as a quarterback might be his lack of mobility. Stanley improved in that area as last season progressed, but defenses still have little reason to be concerned about his mobility.
And that puts additional pressure on the offensive line to protect Stanley.
Iowa has at least three running backs who appear ready to contribute in sophomores Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin and junior-college transfer Mekhi Sargent.
But Iowa doesn't have Akrum Wadley anymore, and he had a gift for turning nothing into something with his ability to make defenders miss.
The offensive line won't have that luxury this season.
Being an Iowa offensive lineman is a massive responsibility because so much of the team's success and failure depends on what those five positions do up front.
There is also a standard that has been set in that no position symbolizes Hawkeye football under Kirk Ferentz more than the offensive line.
Junior guard Ross Reynolds was asked earlier in the summer if he felt he has arrived now that he is listed as a starter.
His answer was encouraging.
"Oh, no, I would not say so at all," Reynolds said. "Everybody is the same and we're all working towards the same goal."
That goal is to be the driving force behind winning a Big Ten title.
But it's hard to see that happening without Iowa having a formidable offensive line.