By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – As I wrote earlier in the week, Wisconsin should without question be Iowa’s biggest rival in football for reasons that date back nearly 30 years.

Barry Alvarez took two valuable Iowa assistants from Hayden Fry’s staff in 1989, and with their help, built Wisconsin into a better version of Iowa that has withstood the test of time.

Alvarez hired Iowa City native and former Hawkeye football player Dan McCarney as his defensive coordinator and former Hawkeye football player and New York native Bernie Wyatt mostly to recruit, especially on the East Coast, as Wyatt had done so effectively under Fry.

I didn’t cover Iowa back then, but have it on good authority that Fry was irate about losing McCarney and Wyatt, and who could’ve blamed Fry under the circumstances, considering Fry had hired both of them from the previous Iowa coaching staff under Bob Commings.

It isn’t unusual these days for coaches to bail on one program in order to work for another in the same conference, but it was highly unusual in the late 1980s.

It was awkward and hard for some to accept.

The Hawkeye fan in me was upset when McCarney and Wyatt bolted from the Iowa staff to coach for another Big Ten school.

McCarney’s decision to leave at least made some sense because he went from being a position coach at Iowa to the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin.

Wyatt’s decision to leave, on the other hand, seemed like a lateral move at best. But he would go on to have a huge impact for Alvarez as a recruiter, often at Iowa’s expense.

Alvarez did more than just rebuild the Wisconsin program. He turned the Badgers into a national power and nothing really has changed.

And it wasn’t enough that Alvarez took McCarney, Wyatt and Fry’s blueprint for success, Alvarez also made former Iowa defensive lineman and assistant coach Bret Bielema his successor as head coach at Wisconsin.

It almost seems that Alvarez took a delight in having former Hawkeyes help build the Wisconsin brand.

And that doesn’t sit well with some old-time Hawkeye fans, including Iowa City native Tom Suter.

“My dislike of the Badgers goes back to when Barry Alvarez took over as the Wisconsin Football coach,” Suter said. “He not only took the Iowa blueprint, he raided the Hawkeye staff. He grabbed Dan McCarney and Bernie Wyatt from the Iowa staff and proceeded to build a dynasty.

“Hiring Bret Bielema was the cherry on top. Add to this, having my life threatened by Badger fans and the verbal insults we get from Badger fans in Madison, I hope Iowa wins 150-0 on Saturday night.”

I doubt that Iowa will win by Suter’s desired margin, but the circumstances heading into Saturday’s much-anticipated Big Ten opener at Kinnick Stadium seem right for an Iowa victory.

My confidence has nothing to do with Alvarez’s connection to both programs, because frankly, the Iowa players probably couldn’t care less about that, and some probably aren’t even aware of it.

That grudge belongs to me and Suter and to all the Iowa fans who still resent that Alvarez raided Fry’s staff. And it’s easy to keep holding the grudge all these years later because Alvarez is now the Wisconsin athletic director.

My confidence in Iowa winning on Saturday is based more on the circumstances on the field, as it should be.

Wisconsin appears more vulnerable, especially on defense, than in previous seasons. Seven starters and two key contributors on defense from last season had to be replaced.

Senior linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel is also questionable for Saturday’s game because of a leg injury. His loss would be significant.

Wisconsin is also without its top receiver, Quintez Cephus, who was suspended indefinitely before the start of the season after being charged with sexually assaulting two women this past spring.

The loss of Cephus is significant because he played a key role last season in making Wisconsin balanced on offense.

Wisconsin’s vaunted rushing attack gets most of the attention, and deservedly so. But the Badgers are just like Iowa in that they want to be balanced on offense and use play-action.

The situation at quarterback is also fueling my confidence because something tells me that Nate Stanley will out-perform Alex Hornibrook on Saturday, partly because Hornibrook has to play against the Iowa defensive line and Stanley doesn’t.

I always want Iowa to win, but that doesn’t stop me from being objective, even when the opponent is Wisconsin.

My prediction is based solely on what I expect to happen under the lights at Kinnick Stadium and has nothing to do with holding a near 30-year grudge.

Wisconsin’s 24-21 loss to Brigham Young University last Saturday at home, to me, wasn’t a fluke.

“Their execution was really good,” Kirk Ferentz said when asked what BYU did to prevail. “They played well. They made some nice plays. They competed hard, which again, that's a given if you're going to beat Wisconsin.”

Wisconsin has won the last four games at Kinnick Stadium, 15 consecutive regular-season Big Ten games and is 14-1 in true road games under Paul Chryst. And that brings up another reason for why I’m predicting a Hawkeye victory on Saturday.

The law of averages would seem to be on Iowa’s side this season.

Combine that with Wisconsin's shortcomings, Iowa’s defense and Iowa's home-field advantage, which is even better now with the north end zone being renovated and with a "Stripeout" schedule for Saturday, and I feel that a victory is well within reach for Iowa, grudge or no grudge.

Prediction: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 16