By Pat Harty

Unlike the Minnesota game last Saturday in Minneapolis where I gave the Gophers little to no chance of defeating Iowa, this week feels different.

I’m not picking Indiana to defeat Iowa on Saturday in Bloomington, Ind., but gave it serious consideration.

My indecisiveness was caused by a number of factors, including thinking that Indiana is better than Minnesota, and because Iowa is alarmingly thin at linebacker and because Iowa has a history under Kirk Ferentz of laying at least one egg during the course of a season.

It might not even take laying an egg for Iowa to lose on Saturday because the 4-2 Hoosiers are pretty good, especially on offense where they’re averaging 411.2 yards per game, including 247.7 passing yards.

The Indiana defense is nothing to brag about as usual, but is showing signs of improvement under third-year head coach Tom Allen.

Those signs were hard to see during last Saturday’s 49-26 loss to Ohio State, but the talent-rich Buckeyes do that to a lot of teams.

Indiana is allowing 157.5 rushing yards per game, while Iowa is averaging 155.0 rushing yards per game. Neither statistic is outstanding, so whichever team has the edge in this matchup could go a long way in determining the outcome on Saturday.

Iowa always strives for balance on offense and is one of nine teams in the Big Ten averaging at least 220 passing yards per game. Indiana is also in that group.

Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley has thrown for at least 300 yards in two of the last three games, while Indiana is ranked a respectable sixth in the conference in pass defense, allowing 212.2 yards per game.

So from a statistical standpoint, this matchup looks pretty good on paper.

Indiana is actually ranked two spots ahead of Iowa in total offense in the Big Ten, but the Hoosiers also will be matched against an Iowa defense that is ranked second in the conference in total defense, allowing just 272.4 yards per game, including 84.4 rushing yards.

Minnesota scored 31 points against Iowa last Saturday, but was helped by two turnovers by Stanley deep in Iowa territory, both resulting in touchdowns.

The Iowa defense still is clearly the best unit on either team, and it might take a herculean effort from Parker Hesse and his cohorts to win on Saturday because one thing is certain about the Hoosiers under Tom Allen – they play hard.

“Again, another big test for us, another road trip against another tough team,” said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. “We're on the road and another homecoming, as well, so some parallels there. Coach Allen's teams, I think when you look at them they play hard. Certainly they give great effort, and I think they're really a well-coached outfit.

“They have got good coaches on both sides of the ball, special teams included, and then they really reflect his personality. I think they play with energy. They fight hard and really have a lot of enthusiasm out there.”

Iowa has won six of the last seven games in the series, but hasn’t faced the Hoosiers since 2015 in Bloomington.

Only six players on the current Iowa team made the trip to Bloomington in 2015.

“For our players, it's a learning experience,” Ferentz said. “Some of our guys have been down there, not many. Last time we were there was '15, so we have very few guys on our team that have been to Bloomington.

“And all that being said, it's going to take us being really focused in that regard. Most importantly, we've got to be prepared and we've got to be motivated and ready to go.”

Being motivated and ready to go is how a team avoids laying an egg.

Junior Kristian Welch is expected to start at middle linebacker for the injured Jack Hockaday and for the suspended Amani Jones. Welch will be the third different player to start at middle linebacker in six games this season.

Jones is suspended for the first half of the Indiana game after being ejected from the Minnesota game for targeting late in the fourth quarter.

"I kind of took the approach that just the next-man-in mentality said Welch, who already has started three games at weakside linebacker this season. "Guys get banged up and Amani gets a targeting penalty. Whatever it is, we have to kind of put the fire out and step in and be able to take on the challenge." 

Iowa probably won’t have an easy time on Saturday, especially if tight end Noah Fant and running back Ivory Kelly-Martin are withheld from the game, but should have enough to win a game that is likely to have several momentum shifts.

I see Iowa seizing the momentum late in the third quarter and then hanging on to win.

Prediction: Iowa 31, Indiana 23

Iowa vs. Indiana

When: Saturday, 11 a.m.

Where: Memorial Stadium (52,929), Bloomington, Ind.

TV: ESPN2