By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – To say that I have bought into the Iowa football team would be an understatement.

After picking the Hawkeyes to finish 8-4 in August with losses to Iowa State, Penn State, Purdue and Northwestern, I started believing the hype in late October, after Iowa had won five of its first six games, and switched my picks for Penn State and Purdue, only to be wrong in both cases.

And despite being wrong in both of those cases, I’m also switching my pick for the Northwestern game on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium and going with Iowa.

Why?

I could be insane by Einstein’s definition of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

But there is a method to my madness, although, badness might be a better word to describe my prognosticating skills, considering I was wrong about the outcomes against Iowa State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Purdue.

Something just tells me that Iowa is poised for a strong showing on Saturday because I refuse to believe that senior defensive end Parker Hesse and the other veteran leaders on the team will let the season completely unravel.

I also have a hard time believing that Northwestern will finish 8-1 in conference play, but it’s also hard to picture Northwestern losing at Minnesota or Illinois in the final two games.

So that leaves losing at Iowa, which Northwestern last did in 2014 by a wide margin of 48-7 at Kinnick Stadium.

The series is tied 8-8 since 2000.

“This game has really become a big rivalry between us and Northwestern going back 20 years,” said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. “.We've had a great series over the years, and it's not a trophy game officially but really kind of feels like that.

“They're an outstanding football team. When you look at them on tape, I think one thing is very apparent. They've got an identity, a clear identity. I think that's got to do with the longevity of Coach Fitzgerald there and their staff. They're very well-coached. They know who they are, what they are, and the commonalities, their guys play hard and they're productive, very good football players.

“I think beyond that, the thing that jumps out at you, they're really good at reacting to situations. Whatever comes up, they seem to be prepared for that. We're going to have to compete at a really high level to stay with these guys. That's for sure.”

I’m 5-4 in picking Iowa this season, not even bowl eligible.

Northwestern is also 5-4 right now under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, and still not bowl eligible despite being in the driver’s seat to win the Big Ten West Division.

The Fighting Fitzgerald’s are tough, resilient, opportunistic and better than they get credit for being.

Northwestern has mastered the art of winning ugly under Fitzgerald, and that’s what Iowa has to guard against on Saturday.

The Wildcats are ranked last in the Big Ten in rushing offense and 12^th in total offense and scoring offense.

Northwestern is clearly led by its defense, which is ranked sixth in the conference in total defense, and by its fundamentally sound approach. The Wildcats have the fewest penalties of any team in the Big Ten, just 26 in nine games for an average of 27.2 yards per game.

In other words, Northwestern rarely beats itself.

Heck, Northwestern rarely even causes inconvenience for itself.

So it’s more than likely that Iowa will have to take Saturday’s game rather than Northwestern will give it away.

A close game might not work to Iowa’s advantage because it sure hasn’t recently. Iowa has lost five games by seven or fewer points since the start of last season.

Iowa also led in the fourth quarter of all three losses this season.

“Just little things that have fallen the other way instead of in our direction,” Iowa defensive back Amani Hooker said when asked to explain the struggle to win close games.

There is some truth to that.

But teams also can influence what direction things fall, and Iowa has struggled to do that at pivotal times this season.

The defense has been spectacular at times, but it also allowed three fourth-quarter scoring drives in Iowa’s three losses.

And yet, despite all of the recent adversity, I’m still picking Iowa to win on Saturday because for one, the game is at Kinnick Stadium, and because Northwestern’s style of winning ugly is bound to backfire at some point.

There will also be more pressure on Northwestern to win on Saturday with the Big Ten West Division on the line, while Iowa is now playing for pride and for a better bowl game.

It would help immensely if Iowa could sustain a rushing attack because that would allow quarterback Nate Stanley to use play action, but the Iowa running game has been hit and miss this season.

Iowa is ranked ninth in the conference in rushing, averaging a modest 156.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry as a team.

Iowa’s last victory over Northwestern came in 2015 by the surprising score of 40-10 in Evanston, Ill. It was surprising because Iowa was decimated by injuries at the time.

Akrum Wadley replaced the injured Jordan Canzeri at running back early in the first quarter and then ran wild against the Wildcats, finishing with 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Iowa rushed for 294 yards as a team and held Northwestern to just 51 yards on the ground.

Iowa doesn’t have to outgain the Wildcats by nearly 250 yards on the ground to win Saturday’s game, but a sputtering rushing attack would be just asking for trouble.

Northwestern is led by one of the Big Ten's most experienced quarterbacks in senior Clayton Thorson. He has struggled with consistency and lost some mobility due to a knee injury that he suffered late last season.

But Thorson is fully capable of leading his team to a victory on Saturday.

But so is Stanley, especially playing at home. 

So for the eighth game in a row, I’m picking Iowa to prevail.

The last time I picked Iowa to lose was against Iowa State and we know how that turned out. So it hardly is good news that I'm picking Iowa to beat Northwestern on Saturday.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Northwestern 23