By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – At this point, you either believe in the Iowa men’s basketball team or you don’t.

You either believe that Iowa has a chance to do something positive in the NCAA Tournament, or that Iowa will make a quick exit from the Big Dance.

You either believe that winning at least 22 games, finishing in sixth place in the Big Ten and making the NCAA Tournament qualifies as a positive season, or you see it as being only slightly better than average and as disappointing, considering Iowa was 20-5 at one point this season.

You either believe that Iowa’s turnaround from last season when it finished 14-19 is a nice accomplishment for head coach Fran McCaffery, or you blame McCaffery for setting the bar so low last season and wonder why he should be praised just for getting things back on track in year nine on the job.

You either believe that the Iowa players are determined to stay the course and end the season on a high note, or you believe that they have checked out and are just going through the motions and will be exposed in the NCAA Tournament.

You either believe that McCaffery can push the right motivational buttons to light a spark, or that this season is yet another case in which Iowa has fallen victim to the Fran fade.

There seems to be little to no middle ground with this Iowa team, which split two games in the Big Ten Tournament, defeating Illinois 83-62 in the second round on Thursday and then losing to Michigan 74-53 in the quarterfinals on Friday at the United Center in Chicago.

Some fans can’t even agree on whether Iowa is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three seasons when all signs point to that being the case.

Iowa isn’t even on the bubble at this point, according to ESPN bracketology insider Joe Lunardi.

He currently has Iowa as an eighth seed in the East Regional and matched against No. 9 seed Ole Miss in the first round in Columbia, S.C., and with the winner likely to face top-seed Virginia in the second round.

Fran McCaffery was addressing the media after Friday’s loss to Michigan when he was given the opportunity to reflect on what his current team has accomplished.

“To a man, those guys were really focused on being better and winning as consistently as we can with the very difficult schedule we put in front of them,” McCaffery said. “And to be able to sit there on Sunday and know that our name is going to be called is a great feeling. I’m very proud of that group.”

The naysayers will dismiss that as spin and point out that the season is on the verge of collapse, if it hasn’t already collapsed.

Iowa has lost five of its last six games, with its only victory coming against lowly Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.

If you had asked Iowa fans before the season if winning 22 games and making the NCAA Tournament would be a worthy accomplishment, it seems likely that an overwhelming majority of them would have said yes after what happened last season.

But perceptions change over time and based on circumstances, and that is certainly the case with some Iowa fans who aren’t satisfied with 22 wins and an NCAA Tournament berth.

Some fans are so dissatisfied that they feel a coaching change should be an option, which is just silly with McCaffery on the verge of leading Iowa to the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in the last six seasons.

This belief that supporting McCaffery is accepting mediocrity is ridiculous.

It is more a case of supporting the circumstances than the head coach.

McCaffery didn’t help his cause, or his image, by getting suspended for two games for berating an official.

But he has won enough games this season, and enough over the course of nine seasons, to dismiss any talk of a coaching changefor now.

Fans certainly have a right to be disappointed and upset with Iowa’s late-season skid, and to expect more from McCaffery and from his players. But fans also have to realistic, especially since the season still isn’t over.

One victory in the NCAA Tournament would have a huge impact from a perception standpoint because it would give Iowa 23 victories overall, and that is nothing to dismiss under any circumstance.

“We believe in what we’re capable of doing and we still feel like if we put it together we can have a great run starting next week,” said Iowa junior forward Tyler Cook. That’s the best part of being in the position we’re in right now, knowing that we’re not done.

“We came out of the season with 22 wins. A year ago we had 14. So that’s definitely a plus for us. So we’ll get some rest and we’ll be super excited to start next week.”

That is exactly how the Iowa players should feel at this stage whether some fans agree with them or not. The players have to stay positive and be proud of what they’ve accomplished so far.

But they also have to be concerned about struggling down the stretch because there are some red flags.

Perhaps the biggest red flag is Iowa’s dependence on the 3-point shot, and the mixed results that come from that.

When those shots are falling, Iowa plays with energy and passion on both ends of the floor as evidenced by Thursday’s victory over Illinois when the Hawkeyes made 12-of-23 shots from 3-point range.

But when Iowa’s 3-point shots aren’t falling, as was the case against Michigan on Friday, the players have a tendency to let that adversely affect other parts of their game, especially on defense.

“That something we maybe have to get away from because we want to be able to play really good defense when we’re not making threes as well,” said redshirt freshman point guard Connor McCaffery, who is Fran McCaffery’s son. “And that’s something that we’re still getting better at.

“Obviously, our confidence picks up completely when we’re making shots. But we need to be a team that when we’re not making shots, we’re digging in even more and getting defensive stops.”

Connor McCaffery made that comment after the victory over Illinois on Thursday, but that didn’t stop the pattern from continuing in the Michigan game.

Iowa missed all but one of its 16 shots from 3-point range against the Wolverines and that led to a mismatch.

It also has led to more speculation that this Iowa team is beyond repair.

And that has sparked an ongoing debate that will soon be settled.