By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – At the risk of being called a homer, a nut or delusional, I’m picking the Iowa men’s basketball team to defeat Cincinnati on Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Before you laugh or spit out your coffee or roll your eyes, let me explain.

The Iowa men’s basketball team, despite having lost five of its last six games, and despite all of its flaws, still has multiple 3-point shooters who could get hot at any time.

It also has 6-foot-11 center Luka Garza and 6-9, 250-pound power forward Tyler Cook on the frontline, and they’re both capable of scoring 20 points against anybody.

And don’t forget about forward Nicholas Baer and what he means to his teammates and coaches as the team’s lone senior.

His inspirational career is just one loss from being over, so knowing that could be a powerful motivator.

I just have this weird feeling that Iowa, seeded 10th, will pull off an upset on Friday because the NCAA Tournament is where upsets happen, especially in the first round, and because Iowa is facing a Cincinnati squad that isn’t nearly as battle-hardened after competing in the American Athletic Conference.

Nothing against that conference, but it hardly compares to the rugged Big Ten where Iowa just finished a 20-game grind, finishing 10-10.

The Bearcats also aren’t nearly as familiar with Iowa’s style of play, or its players, compared to Big Ten teams. There is a big difference between watching an opponent on film and competing against an opponent in an actual game.

The teams in the Big Ten know each other inside and out. They know each other's tendencies and they know who likes to shoot from where.

Tyler Cook was asked this past Sunday, and shortly after Iowa had learned about its matchup, if it was good to be playing somebody besides a Big Ten team.

“Absolutely,” he said. “I think teams in the Big Ten scout us as good as anybody that’s in the country. So it’ll be nice to play somebody out of the conference and see some new faces.”

Iowa coach Fran McCaffery echoed those sentiments.

“I think a lot of people probably feel that way,” McCaffery said.

Iowa and Cincinnati aren’t playing a three or five-game series. They’re playing one game in which anything can happen.

If the seventh-seeded Bearcats struggle to make 3-point shots and Iowa gets hot from behind the arc, you would have to like Iowa’s chances. Those are two big ifs, but we've seen Iowa get hot before from behind the arc before.

With players like point guard Jordan Bohannon, shooting guard Isaiah Moss and small forward Joe Wieskamp, Iowa has multiple 3-point shooters who are capable of scoring points in a hurry.

Minnesota showed the blueprint for defeating a higher seed in the tournament by shredding No. 7 seed Louisville from 3-point range on Thursday at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines. The seventh-seeded Gophers made 11 treys during the 86-76 victory after averaging just five per game as a team during the season.

Cincinnati might have an edge in fan support on Friday from playing so close to home.

But that won’t matter if Iowa shoots well from the perimeter.

“I don’t think it’s that much different,” McCaffery said. “There may be a few more fans of theirs there. But they’re tough no matter where you play them.”

What will matter is how well the 28-6 Bearcats defend the perimeter and how the game will be officiated.

Maybe the Bearcats won’t realize the extent of Bohannon’s shooting range until after he has made two or three 3-point shots. And maybe the officials will call the game closely, which could make Cincinnati not as aggressive on defense.

Big Ten opponents know exactly how far to extend on Bohannon from experience, but the Bearcats won’t have that experience.

Iowa isn’t just a different team on offense when its 3-point shots are falling. It also performs better on defense and in transition when the 3-point shots are falling.

I just have a feeling that Bohannon and his cohorts will shoot well from 3-point range on Friday, while the more athletic Bearcats will struggle from behind the arc.

And that will be the recipe for an upset.

Prediction: Iowa 78, Cincinnati 74