By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – A Middle Tennessee State football team that is 1-2 and allowing 222.0 rushing yards per game is all that stands in the way of Iowa being 4-0 for the fifth time in 21 seasons under Kirk Ferentz.

Saturday's game at Kinnick Stadium will be the first meeting between the two teams, and according to the oddsmakers, it shouldn't be close with 14th-ranked Iowa at least a three-touchdown favorite.

Iowa should dominate the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense and that's where a decisive victory usually starts, and where upsets and bad losses are avoided.

Three of Middle Tennessee State's four listed starters on the defensive line weigh 256 pounds or less, while none of the five starters on the Iowa offensive line weigh less than 286 pounds, and three of them weigh over 300 pounds.

Size isn't everything, but it certainly matters.

This is meant as no disrespect to the Blue Raiders, but Iowa should win this game under any circumstance, especially at home. Iowa's secondary is depleted, and Middle Tennesse State has been bowl eligible 10 times in the last 13 seasons, but these are two teams that compete at different levels, with the Blue Raiders a member of Conference USA..

Iowa is also considered a legitimate contender in the Big Ten West Division, is coming off a nine-win season, has a head coach who is in his 21st season and is playing at home.

A loss to Middle Tennessee State would not only be inexcusable, and a huge momentum killer, but also one of the worst losses under Kirk Ferentz, maybe the worst.

And that got me to thinking about the worst losses under Ferentz, and that led to me ranking the 10 worst losses dating back to when he started in 1999 season. Or you could call them the 10 biggest upsets under Ferentz.

Either way describes a game that Iowa shouldn't have lost.

There also have been some close calls under Ferentz, most notably Iowa's 17-16 victory over Northern Iowa in 2009 at Kinnick Stadium. An Iowa team that would go on to finish 11-2 had to block two fields goals in the final seconds to beat the FCS Panthers.

If Iowa had lost that game, it without question would be ranked as the worst loss under Ferentz.

"The message is if you're not doing your best internally you're going to be involved in many games like that," Ferentz said. "You can come out on the short end and we should have really against UNI. You could argue that. It's just the way sports are."

The opponent obviously has a lot to do with ranking the worst losses under Ferentz.

Iowa's 38-14 loss at Wisconsin in 2017 was maddening and embarrassing due to Iowa's ineptitude on offense, but the opponent and where the game was played kept it from making this list. 

Here is my list of Ferentz's 10 worst losses as the Iowa head coach starting with No. 10 as the least of the worst and working up. The list includes three losses against teams from the Mid-American Conference, two losses against Iowa State and two against Minnesota.

Date, location, score

10. Sept. 9, 2000, Kinnick Stadium, Western Michigan 27, Iowa 21: This loss almost didn’t make the list because it was only Ferentz’s second season as head coach and the program still was in a rebuilding phase and struggling big time.

Western Michigan also finished 9-3 that season, so it wasn’t that Iowa lost to a bottom feeder from the Mid-American Conference.

But it still never looks good when a Big Ten team loses to an opponent from the MAC, especially at home, so this game deserves a spot on the list

9. Nov. 21, 2017, Kinnick Stadium, Purdue 24, Iowa 15: The Boilermakers scored two touchdowns in the opening four minutes of the third quarter and prevailed on Iowa’s Senior Day, and just three weeks after Iowa had blasted Ohio State 55-24 on the same field.

A familiar formula for losing played out in this game as Iowa, which was coming off a bye week, was held to just 82 rushing yards on 38 attempts.

Nate Stanley also completed less than 50 percent of his passes – 16 out of 33 – for 176 yards and Iowa was penalized six times for 56 yards.

8. Sept. 17, 2016, Kinnick Stadium, North Dakota State 23, Iowa 21: You could make an argument for this game not being on the list since the Bison are the greatest dynasty in college football right now, even greater than Alabama.

North Dakota State has won seven national championships over the last eight seasons, including the last two in a row, and 35 consecutive conference championships.

And while that truly is incredible, it also has occurred at the FCS level, and that makes a difference.

Some would argue that Iowa shouldn’t lose to any FCS team under any circumstance.

North Dakota State scored the final nine points in the game and held Iowa to just 34 rushing yards on 25 carries.

Shutting down the running game is usually first step in defeating a Kirk Ferentz-coached team, and the Bison were able to do that in dominating fashion.

The game was also played at Kinnick Stadium, and that makes a difference when ranking the worst losses under Ferentz.

7. Jan. 2, 2015, TaxSlayer Bowl, Jacksonville, Fla., Tennessee 45, Iowa 28: Three bowl games were given serious consideration, with the others being the 2016 Rose Bowl and the 2017 Outback Bowl because they were also sobering defeats in which Iowa put forth very little resistance.

The TaxSlayer Bowl was chosen because it caused Kirk Ferentz to make sort of reboot to his program. C.J. Beathard replaced Jake Rudock as the starting quarterback just days after this embarrassing loss, the team started practicing in the morning and the head Hawk started taking more chances on the field, a trend that became known as New Kirk during Iowa's march to the Rose Bowl in 2015.

Iowa would go on to finish 12-0 during the 2015 regular season, but nobody saw it coming because of what had occurred just months before in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

Tennessee scored the game’s first 28 points and led 42-7 after three quarters.

The Volunteers also had 461 yards, including 283 rushing yards.

Iowa scored 21 points and racked up a lot of its 421 yards in the fourth quarter with the outcome already having been decided.

6. Sept. 14, 2002, Kinnick Stadium, Iowa State 36, Iowa 31: An Iowa team that would go on to finish undefeated in the Big Ten for the first time in 80 years and 11-2 overall, and that led this game 24-7 at halftime at home, still found a way to lose in stunning fashion.

The unraveling started with two third-quarter turnovers, and that combined with Seneca Wallace’s breathtaking performance at quarterback for Iowa State, helped to lead an improbable comeback.

Iowa simply had no answer for Wallace, who had a 190 of his 361 passing yards in the final two quarters. The Cyclones also scored 29 unanswered points after having heard an inspiring halftime speech from then head coach and former Hawkeye and master motivator Dan McCarney.

5. Nov. 13, 2014, Kinnick Stadium: Iowa State 20, Iowa 17: An Iowa State team that would go on to finish 2-10 rallied from a 14-3 halftime deficit to win on the road.

Need I say more?

Iowa was held to just 129 rushing yards on 44 attempts and also committed six penalties for 50 yards.

Iowa State’s only other victory that season came against Toledo. Every opponent except for Iowa scored at least 30 points against Iowa State that season, including Toledo, which lost to the Cyclones 37-30 in week six.

So in other words, Iowa had no business losing to a horrible Iowa State team, especially at home.

4. Nov. 8, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 51, Iowa 14: This game was played just one week after Iowa had demolished Northwestern 48-7 at Kinnick Stadium to improve 6-2, so there was no reason to think that Iowa was at risk of suffering a beat-down of  this m, but that’s exactly what happened.

Iowa led 7-0 after an early one-yard touchdown run by Mark Weisman, but it was all Gophers after that as they scored 51 consecutive points, scored touchdowns on five of their first six possessions and led 35-7 at halftime.

Minnesota shredded Iowa for 291 rushing yards, while holding the Haseyes to just 84 rushing yards on 30 attempts.

Iowa also committed three turnovers and only had 121 passing yards against a Minnesota squad that would go on to finish 8-5 under then head coach Jerry Kill.

So it was a decent Minnesota team that crushed Iowa in this game, but under no circumstances should Iowa lose to the Gophers in this fashion. 

3. Sept. 22, 2012, Kinnick Stadium: Central Michigan 32, Iowa 31: This game proved to be a harbinger as Iowa would go on to finish 4-8 that season.

Central Michigan scored nine points in the final 2:18 to pull off the upset.

Trailing 23-21, the Chippewas responded with a seven-play, 64-yard scoring drive that was capped by a 13 pass from Ryan Radcliff to Titus Davis, trimming the deficit to 31-29.

Central Michigan then recovered an onside kick with 45 seconds left and won on a 47-yard field by David Harman with three seconds remaining.

Iowa ran for 215 yards and passed for 215 yards, but also committed nine penalties for 106 yards and allowed 283 passing yards..

2. Nov. 27, 2010, Minneapolis, Minnesota 27, Iowa 24: Despite having a roster filled with future NFL players, including Adrian Clayborn, Mike Daniels, Riley Reiff and Tyler Sash, Iowa lost to a Gopher squad that was 2-9 and being led by an interim coach.

Tim Brewster had been fired as the Minnesota coach midway through the 2010 season and replaced on interim basis by Jeff Horton, who then engineered the three-point win over what was a struggling Iowa team at the time.

Minnesota rushed for 216 yards, while holding Iowa to 91 rushing yards.

Minnesota also dominated time of possession by more than 13 minutes.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi completed just 10 passes for 121 yards despite being a three-year starter and a senior.

1. Nov. 17, 2007, Kinnick Stadium, Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19: A chance to finish with a winning record and an invitation to the Insight Bowl were both on the line when Iowa hosted the Broncos in a rare nonconference regular-season finale.

But instead of seizing the moment, the Hawkeyes, who had won their previous three games, performed woefully and lost to a Western Michigan team that entered the game with a 4-7 record.

Iowa finished 6-6 and didn’t receive a bowl bid.

This loss came seven years after Iowa's loss to Western Michigan in 2000, but circumstances were much different in 2007 with Iowa having won two Big Ten titles under Ferentz in 2002 and 2004 and with Iowa having played in six consecutive bowl games.

The Iowa program was considered to be on solid ground in 2007, and the opponent was a team from the Mid-American Conference with a losing record.

Combine those factors with everything that was on the line and it's my pick as the worst loss under Ferentz.

Games that were also considered:

Jan. 2, 2017, Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla., Florida 30, Iowa 3

Sept. 18, 2004, Tempe, Ariz., Arizona State 44, Iowa 7

Sept. 10, 2005, Ames, Iowa State 23, Iowa 3

Sept. 8, 2012, Kinnick Stadium, Iowa State 9, Iowa 6

Nov. 18, 2006, Minneapolis, Minnesota 34, Iowa 24