Time for Iowa running game to deliver a knockout blow for a change
By Pat Harty
EVANSTON, Ill. – Unless you are a fan of either team, it might help to have the remote nearby when Iowa faces Northwestern on Saturday at Ryan Field.
Because this game has low scoring written all over it.
Northwestern has been so abysmal on offense that it’s hard to picture Iowa losing to the Wildcats even though Iowa has a history of losing to the Wildcats, including the last three games in the series.
Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald has been nothing short of a miracle worker against Iowa, winning eight of the 13 games he has coached in the series.
The Wildcats have won the last three games in the series by a combined 18 points, including 14-10 last season at Kinnick Stadium when they clinched the Big Ten West Division title.
But there is only so much a head coach can do when his offense is ranked last in the Big Ten in passing with a per-game average of 124.0 yards per game, as is the case with Northwestern.
The Wildcats are also ranked 13th in the conference in scoring offense, averaging just 12.5 points per game.
In the Big Ten, only lowly Rutgers has a slightly worse scoring average of 11.1 points per game.
Quarterback has been a disaster for Northwestern, due partly to injuries, but mostly due to poor play.
And yet, despite all of Northwestern’s offensive woes, it still feels like Saturday’s game at Ryan Field will be a close, grind-it-out slugfest.
That is due to several factors, including Fitzgerald’s vast influence. He has a knack for rallying his team against Iowa, and he has a defense that performed well during a 24-15 loss against Wisconsin on Sept. 28 in Madison, Wis.
“You expect every conference game to be tough,” said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. “Certainly, going on the road adds to the challenge. That’s part of it.
“The bigger part really is we have the utmost respect for Northwestern, the program that they have, I think for good reason. Since Pat took over in 2006, he and his staff have really done a great job.”
Iowa’s offense is suspect, or a work in progress, however you want to put it.
Iowa will also be without junior receiver Brandon Smith on Saturday due to an injury. The Mississippi native leads the team with 33 catches, but could be out for as long as five weeks.
“You just make adjustments and keep playing,” Ferentz said. “That’s the way it goes.”
Nate Stanley and the Iowa offense are hard to stop when the competition is below average, but they also have a tendency to sputter when the competition is above average.
Iowa’s five victories this season have come against Miami of Ohio, Rutgers, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee State and Purdue. Iowa State is the only team in that group that is above average.
Iowa’s two losses were against Michigan and Penn State, both of which are above average.
The Iowa offense sputtered in both losses, combining to score just 15 points in the two games, so there is reason to be concerned that the same thing could happen against Northwestern.
There is also a chance that Northwestern’s ground attack could be effective. That was the biggest difference in last year’s game in which the Wildcats rushed for 184 yards, while holding Iowa to just 64 rushing yards.
Isaiah Bowser shredded Iowa for 165 rushing yards last season, but that’s just three fewer yards than he has gained in four games this season.
If the Wildcats can run the ball and force two or three turnovers, and make a big play on special teams then anything is possible.
“We’re going to have to play really good football, really clean football, if we expect to win this this football game,” Ferentz said.
Ferentz only needs to point to Illinois’ stunning 24-23 upset over Wisconsin last Saturday in Champaign, Ill., to reinforce that statement.
Wisconsin committed two costly turnovers late in the game and that proved to be the difference between escaping with a win and losing a game that nobody expected Wisconsin to lose.
The perceived gap between Wisconsin and Illinois heading into that game was much larger than the perceived gap between Iowa and Northwestern.
But without much threat at quarterback, it should be more difficult for Northwestern to establish a running game on Saturday compared to a year ago against Iowa.
Northwestern had senior Clayton Thorson playing quarterback last season. And while he only passed for 122 yards and was intercepted twice, the Iowa defense still had to account for Thorson at all times because of his reputation and experience.
Iowa lost to Northwestern last season because it couldn’t establish the run on offense or stop the run on defense.
Iowa would likely lose again on Saturday if the same scenario played out.
It’s time for the Iowa running game to deliver a knockout blow for a change. Northwestern has some quality players on defense, but Iowa supposedly has two of the best offensive tackles in college football and a three-year starter at quarterback.
If ever there was time for the Iowa running game to respond, Saturday's game at Northwestern is it. The Wildcats are ranked 11th in the conference in rushing defense, allowing 165.5 yards per game.
Iowa's running game showed some life late in the 26-20 victory against Purdue last Saturday as Mekhi Sargent gained 35 yards on his last two carries, including a 14-yard touchdown run.
"It definitely gave us a push in the right direction, Sargent said.
Iowa is the pick to win this game, but it has more to do with Northwestern’s weaknesses on offense than Iowa’s strengths.
The Fitzgerald factor is always something to consider, but the Northwestern offense has been woeful, while the Iowa defense has been rock-solid for most of the season.
Prediction: Iowa 17, Northwestern 9
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Iowa vs. Northwestern
When: Saturday, 11 a.m.
Where: Ryan Field, Evanston, Ill.
TV: ESPN2
Records/rankings: Iowa is 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten and ranked 20th in the Associated Press poll. Northwestern is 1-5, 0-4 and unranked,
Series: Iowa holds a 50-27-3 advantage, and is 24-16-3 all time in games played in Evanston. Northwestern has an 8-5 record in series under head coach Pat Fitzgerald.