By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – The Iowa football team proved last season that a 0-2 start is not a death sentence, or even a sign that trouble is looming.

Iowa rebounded to win six games in a row, finishing 6-2 during the Covid-19-shortened 2020 season.

Back-to-back losses to Purdue and Northwestern in the first two games by a combined five points kept Iowa from winning the Big Ten West division, but to win six of eight games still is a worthy accomplishment.

It was arguably the toughest first two games to a season that Iowa has played under Kirk Ferentz, which dates back to 1999.

But now here comes what appears to be an even tougher two-game start for Iowa in 2021 against Indiana on Sept. 4 at Kinnick Stadium, and at Iowa State the following Saturday.

Both of those programs are on the rise and led by highly respected head coaches.

Tom Allen has improved the level of talent at Indiana, especially on defense, and expectations are as high as they’ve been in years, if not decades.

Indiana has added transfers from Auburn, Michigan, USC, Mississippi, Florida State and Texas A&M to a roster that already was stocked with talent.

Assuming quarterback Michael Penix Jr. makes a full recovery from a knee injury, the Indiana offense should be explosive and balanced, while the Indiana defense is no longer a weakness.

Indiana, at least on paper, looks rock-solid, and should pose quite a threat in the season opener.

Not since facing Kansas State in the Eddie Robinson Classic in 2000 has Iowa faced a tougher opponent in a season opener.

At least on paper, because that’s all the 2021 season is at this point.

Iowa State also looks good on paper, real good.

From having a veteran quarterback and a star running back and depth at tight end and some nice pieces on defense, the Cyclones might have their best team ever – at least on paper.

Should Iowa perform poorly, or even be average in the first two games, it could very easily be 0-2 for the second consecutive season, but with 10 games still left to be played instead of six, including road games at Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska.

Two games doesn’t make a season, but two games is enough to break a season.

This probably will be the toughest two-game start for Iowa in 23 seasons under Kirk Ferentz, assuming Indiana and Iowa State both live up to expectations.

The only season that comes close is Ferentz’s debut season in 1999 when Iowa faced fifth-ranked Nebraska, followed by an Iowa State team that was on the rise under Dan McCarney.

We should know a lot more about both Iowa and Iowa State by the evening of Sept. 11 after they will have squared off in Ames.

Iowa could be 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 after two games.

I’m leaning towards 1-1 at this stage, predicting a victory over Indiana and a loss at Iowa State, but also wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa lost to Indiana and beat Iowa State.

Matt Campbell has accomplished some incredible things as the Iowa State head coach, but he still is winless against Iowa.

Home-field advantage, I’m predicting, will be a factor in both games, because for one, it always is a factor, but also because of the unusual circumstances caused by the global pandemic.

Fans should be even more energized than usual after having missed out on last season due to Covid-19 health concerns

At some point in the near future, I plan to release my game-by-game predictions for Iowa’s 2021 season, but I’m curious to know what fans believe Iowa’s record will be after the first two games.

Iowa is 34-10 in the first two games of each season under Kirk Ferentz.

However, more than half of those games were played against inferior opponents that had a little chance of winning.

The 2021 schedule, on the other hand, will test Iowa right out of the gate with two opponents that look as good or better than the Hawkeyes, at least on paper.

 

Iowa’s yearly results in first two games under Kirk Ferentz

1999

Nebraska 42, Iowa 7

Iowa State 17, Iowa 10

2000

Kansas State 27, Iowa 7

Western Michigan 27, Iowa 21

2001

Iowa 51, Kent State 0

Iowa 44, Miami (Ohio) 19

2002

Iowa 57, Akron 21

Iowa 29, Miami (Ohio) 24

2003

Iowa 21, Miami (Ohio) 3

Iowa 56, Buffalo 7

2004

Iowa 39, Kent State 7

Iowa 17, Iowa State 10

2005

Iowa 56, Ball State 0

Iowa State 23, Iowa 3

2006

Iowa 41, Montana 7

Iowa 20, Syracuse 13

2007

Iowa 16, Northern Illinois 3

Iowa 35, Syracuse 0

2008

Iowa 46, Maine 3

Iowa 42, Florida International 0

2009

Iowa 17, Northern Iowa 16

Iowa 35, Iowa State 3

2010

Iowa 37, Eastern Illinois 7

Iowa 35, Iowa State 7

2011

Iowa 34, Tennessee Tech 7

Iowa State 44, Iowa 41 (3OT)

2012

Iowa 18, Northern Illinois 17

Iowa State 9, Iowa 6

2013

Northern Illinois 30, Iowa 27

Iowa 28, Missouri State 14

2014

Iowa 31, Northern Iowa 23

Iowa 17, Ball State 13

2015

Iowa 31, Illinois 14

Iowa 31, Iowa State 17

2016

Iowa 45, Miami (Ohio) 21

Iowa 42, Iowa State 3

2017

Iowa 24, Wyoming 3

Iowa 44, Iowa 41 (OT)

2018

Iowa 33, Northern Illinois 7

Iowa 13, Iowa State 3

2019

Iowa 38, Miami (Ohio) 14

Iowa 30, Rutgers 0

2020

Purdue 24, Iowa 20

Northwestern 21, Iowa 20