By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – A strong case could be made for the Iowa football team being favored in 10 of its 12 games this season.

In fact, that’s how I see it.

I have Iowa favored to win all but two of its games this season, and here is a breakdown of each game and the odds of Iowa winning from a percentage standpoint, beginning with the highest percentages for a victory.

Date, opponent, Iowa’s chance of winning

Sept. 25 – vs. Colorado State, 95 percent: The Rams have questions at quarterback, problems on special teams and had four of their eight games from last season canceled because of COVID-19 issues, finishing 1-3 under new head coach Steve Addazio, who was previously the head coach at Boston College.

There just weren’t enough games played last season to know if Addazio’s ball-control, run-oriented offense will work. Nine starters do return on what could be a stout defense. But it’s hard to envision Colorado State scoring enough points to threaten Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.

Sept. 18 – vs. Kent State: 90 percent: Hawkeye fans know all too well that you never say never against an opponent from the Mid-American Conference. Iowa has lost four games against MAC opponents under Kirk Ferentz, including two losses against Western Michigan in 2000 and 2007. The other losses were against Central Michigan in 2012 and Northern Illinois in 2013, both of which were played at Kinnick Stadium.

Kent State only played four games last season, but it won three of them, including two games in which it scored more than 60 points.

Dual-threat quarterback Dustin Grim is an emerging star and should pose a challenge for the Iowa defense. Kent State led the nation in scoring last season at 49.8 points per game, and in total offense, averaging 606.5 yards per game.

Its defense, on the other hand, was a sieve at times, especially against the run. In last year’s lone loss, Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson rushed for a MAC-record 409 yards and tied an NCAA mark with eight touchdowns.

Iowa might have to score three or four touchdowns to win, but that seems well within reach.

Nov. 20 – vs. Illinois, 80 percent: I could be underestimating Bret Bielema’s impact from an emotional standpoint, but Iowa is clearly the better team on paper, and will be playing at home.

Illinois has some good players at certain positions, especially on the offensive line, but just not enough to be a serious threat this season.

Oct. 16 – vs. Purdue, 65 percent: This could be too high of a percentage, considering Purdue beat Iowa 24-20 last season in West Lafayette, Ind., and has won three of the last four games in the series.

But the Hawkeyes will be playing at home against a Purdue team that is coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons.

Jeff Brohm has made Purdue a force on offense where big plays are common, but his defenses have struggled to do their part.

Oct. 1 at Maryland, 65 percent: Iowa might have to score more than 30 points to prevail on the road because Maryland certainly looks talented on offense under third-year head coach Mike Locksley.

Maryland’s problem is on defense where it gave up 32 points and 430 yards per game last season, figures that ranked 10^th and 11^th, respectively, in the Big Ten.

Nov. 26, at Nebraska: 60 percent: The Cornhuskers have come close to beating Iowa in the last three seasons, losing all three games by a combined 12 points. This game will also be played on Black Friday in Lincoln, Neb., so Nebraska will have home-field advantage, and could be playing to save Scott Frost’s job.

It would be naïve to think that a win would come easy for Iowa.

Nov. 13, vs. Minnesota: 60 percent: Iowa will have home-field advantage, while Minnesota has issues on defense and on special teams based on what happened last season. The Gophers gave up a combined 94 points and 1,156 yards in losses to Michigan and Maryland to open the 2020 season in which they would go on to finish 3-4.

Iowa crushed Minnesota 35-7 last season in Minneapolis, so to give the Hawkeyes a 60 percent chance of beating Minnesota at home this season seems reasonable.

Kirk Ferentz also seems to take great joy in beating P.J. Fleck.

Nov. 6, at Northwestern, 60 percent: This percentage might be playing right into Pat Fitzgerald’s hands as he seems to thrive as an underdog. The Wildcats overcame a 17-0 deficit to defeat Iowa 21-20 last season at Kinnick Stadium on their way to winning the Big Ten West Division for the second time in three years.

Northwestern has also won four of the last five games in series, and yet, I still give Iowa a slight edge to win in Evanston, largely due to Northwestern only returning three starters on offense and four on defense.

I recently picked Iowa to lose to Northwestern because Iowa has a history under Kirk Ferentz of losing one game per season where it looks better on paper. This could prove to be one of those games.

Oct. 9, vs. Penn State, 55 percent: Home-field advantage, coupled with how poorly Penn State played at times last season gives Iowa a slight edge. Penn State rebounded from a 0-5 start last season to win its final four games. But the wins came against Michigan, Rutgers, Michigan State and Illinois, all of which finished with losing records.

Penn State head coach James Franklin fired his offensive coordinator shortly after last season, so there will be an adjustment for opposing defenses.

I’d probably give Penn State a 55 percent chance of winning this game if it were played in Happy Valley because both teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. But with the game being played in Iowa City, and with Kinnick Stadium expected to be filled with fans, Iowa has a slight edge.

Sept. 4, vs. Indiana, 52 percent: At the risk of sounding redundant, Iowa gets the slight due mostly to having home-field advantage. Kinnick Stadium should be rocking when these two nationally ranked opponents square off in the much-anticipated season opener.

The Hoosiers are on the rise under head coach Tom Allen, who has continued Indiana’s tradition of having a strong offense. But Allen has taken it a step further by also making Indiana respectable on defense.

Starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was performing at a high level last season when he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Penix is expected to be ready for the season opener and is a proven playmaker.

As is the case with Penn State, this percentage would switch to Indiana’s advantage if the game were being played in Bloomington, Ind.

Oct. 30, at Wisconsin, 45 percent: Iowa defeated a Badger squad that was decimated by COVID-19 issues last season 28-7 at Kinnick Stadium. It was just Iowa’s second win over the Badgers in the last nine games, and with this game being played in Madison, Wis., it seems fair and reasonable to give  Wisconsin a small advantage.

Sept. 11, at Iowa State, 40 percent: In nearly 30 years of covering Iowa football, this marks the only time I can recall Iowa State being considered Iowa’s toughest opponent, at least on paper.

The Cyclones are loaded with talent and experience on both offense and defense, and will be playing at home as a team probably ranked in the top 10.

Matt Campbell is also winless against Iowa in four tries, so it makes sense that his players would be on a mission to end that losing streak.

Iowa State also has huge expectations for this season, but an early loss to Iowa could come back to haunt it.