No. 4 Michigan vs. Iowa; my game preview and prediction
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – Before the season, I predicted that Iowa would defeat Michigan 21-20 and finish the regular season with a 9-3 record.
Needless to say that my confidence started to wane after the first two games when the Iowa offense was inept, struggling just to complete routine passes, and struggling to sustain any semblance of a rushing attack.
But now here I am after four games thinking that Iowa has a legitimate chance of defeating fourth-ranked Michigan on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.
Maybe I’m just a delusional homer, considering that Michigan pounded Iowa 42-3 the last time the teams met in the 2021 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
It was an embarrassing loss for Iowa, but it was also a different Michigan team, a different Iowa team, a different season, and a different venue.
Former All-America defensive end Aidan Hutchinson isn’t around amymore to terrorize quarterbacks in the pocket, so that could be a factor should Michigan struggle to sustain a pass rush.
The Iowa offense still leaves so much to be desired, averaging just 232.5 yards per game.
But never underestimate the power of home-field advantage, especially when it comes with a rock-solid defense, maybe the best punter in college football and an emerging kicker.
Iowa also has won five of its last six games against top-5 opponents at Kinnick Stadium, including a 14-13 victory over then No. 2 Michigan in 2016.
“Our fans do a great job, and certainly it’s gotten even better now with the north end zone,” said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. That’s helped a great deal, as well.
“But the important thing for our team to understand is that the fans can only do so much, and they’ve been great, and we appreciate that. But we’d better be playing on the field.”
The fact that Michigan looked vulnerable against Maryland last Saturday, winning 34-27 at home, is also fueling my optimism.
Iowa isn’t anywhere close to matching Maryland on offense, but Maryland isn’t close to matching Iowa on defense, or on special teams.
Another reason for optimism is that Michigan hasn’t played on the road this season, and its three nonconference games were blowout wins against Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut. Those three teams have a combined record of 2-12.
Michigan leads the nation in scoring offense at 50.0 points per game, but it ould be argued that the schedule has had as much, or more to do with it, than anything else.
Iowa would likely be in serious trouble should Michigan score more than 20 points in Saturday’s game because that would put too much of a burden on the Iowa offense to score points.
Iowa’s best chance for a victory would be a low-scoring game in which Iowa controls the tempo, wins the battle of field position, avoids having any turnovers, and keeps the score close heading to the fourth quarter.
This Michigan team is like most Michigan teams in that it has talented players and former star recruits up and down the roster.
Blake Corum is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten, while sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy, a former five-star recruit, was good enough to supplant Cade McNamara as the starter, even though McNamara led Michigan to the Big Ten title last season, and to a spot in the college playoff.
“Traditionally they’ve been one of the best teams in the conference and might as well say best teams in the country, as well,” Kirk Ferentz said. “Had a really good year last year, and they’ve continued that play moving forward into this season, so they’re off to a really good start.”
McCarthy’s ability to handle what promises to be a hostile environment on Saturday could go a long way in determining the outcome.
McCarthy has only started three games for Michigan, and Saturday’s game will be his first start on the road against a veteran defense that is determined to make up for what happened in the Big Ten Championship game.
McCarthy leads the nation with an 80 percent completion percentage, having completed 46-of-60 attempts with zero interceptions.
But he hasn’t faced a defense this season that’s anywhere close to matching Iowa’s defense, which is strong at all three levels.
McCarthy played in 11 games last season as a true freshman and showed flashes of his potential while passing for 516 yards and five touchdowns and rushing for 117 yards and two scores.
But he was also the backup quarterback and didn’t have as much pressure compared to a starter.
So, there’s always the chance that McCarthy could wilt under the pressure because starting your first road game at Kinnick Stadium is a daunting task.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh knows all about playing in Kinnick Stadium as he was Michigan’s starting quarterback in 1985 when No. 1 Iowa edged the second-ranked Wolverines 12-10 on a last-second field goal by Rob Houghtlin.
Harbaugh was also the Michigan head coach in 2016 when Keith Duncan as a true freshman made a last-second field goal to beat the Wolverines.
“As they say, where top-five teams go to die,” Harbaugh said of Kinnick Stadium. “I think the biggest thing is just how good the team is.”
Both teams are loaded on special teams as Michigan has the 2021 Lou Groza Award winner in senior kicker Jake Moody.
He has made 6-of-8 field-goal attempts this season, including one from 52 yards.
Michigan also has a top-notch punter in Brad Robbins, who is averaging 46.7 yards on 11 attempts, while Michigan receiver A.J. Henning leads the Big Ten with a 12.67 punt return average.
Robbins is a three-time Ray Guy Award candidate, and a semifinalist from last season.
He has had 51 punts downed inside the opponent’s 20-yard with only nine career touchbacks.
“As always, an impressive team,” Kirk Ferentz said. “They have a lot of talent, all three phases, and certainly are well-coached. You pick out the special teams, grab that one. They have three very veteran guys in terms of their specialists, the punter, kicker. One is a fifth-year guy, one is a sixth-year guy, and their deep snapper is a veteran guy, as well, senior. Excellent return guys. They do a nice job.
“It’s the same thing offensively and defensively. They have a lot of really good players, and they’ve been very productive, very successful, and it’s going to take our best team effort to have a chance in this ballgame. So, it’s a big challenge for us. Look forward to that on Saturday.”
It would be foolish to think that the Iowa offense would suddenly catch lightning in a bottle on Saturday and start making big plays.
The Iowa offense shouldn’t have to win Saturday’s game, but it also can’t lose it, either.
The Iowa running game has shown improvement in the last two games.
But how much of it was due to the competition?
Look for Iowa to try to establish its running game on Saturday because that’s what Kirk Ferentz always tries to do against any opponent.
Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras would benefit greatly if the Iowa offense could stay ahead of the chains by effectively running the ball.
“That’s where our offense starts, through the run game,” Petras said. “A lot of what we do is based on first being able to run the ball effectively.”
It has been a while since Petras has played well throughout a game, and Saturday would sure be a good time for him to change that.
Petras doesn’t have to be spectacular, but he does have to be serviceable.
He has to make the routine throws, which has been a problem for him, and he has to avoid making mental mistakes and committing turnovers.
“It’s tough when you have any screw ups just because this team is so talented, they’ll make you pay,” Petras said. “We’ve just really got to be locked into that.”
Another reason for optimism from Iowa’s standpoint is the recent emergence of freshman kicker Drew Stevens. He has handled all the kicking duties in the last two games and is 4-for-4 on field-goal attempts.
Stevens is very much aware of the role that Iowa kickers have played in games against Michigan.
He has watched Keith Duncan’s game-winning field goal from 2016 “probably a hundred times” and he looks forward to the challenge on Saturday.
“As a kicker, that’s what you hope for, win the game for your team like that,” Stevens said. “
Prediction: Iowa 16, Michigan 15