By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Hardly anybody outside of their inner circle believes the Iowa football team will defeat Ohio State on Saturday, and some don’t even think the game will be competitive.

Hawkeye fans should hope that the Iowa players and coaches believe they can pull off what would be a huge upset, because if they don’t believe it, then Iowa is in serious trouble.

Iowa could be in serious trouble regardless what the players believe because the Buckeyes are playing at an extremely high level, even by their lofty standards, and they’re doing it on both offense and defense.

Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud is probably the frontrunner to win the Heisman Trophy as he has thrown 24 touchdown passes in six games this season, while Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras has thrown 21 touchdown passes in 25 starts as a Hawkeye dating back to the start of the 2020 season.

That is both a fascinating and a depressing statistic from Iowa’s standpoint.

Iowa and Ohio State haven’t met since the now-famous 2017 Hawkeye beat-down in which Iowa crushed the Buckeyes 55-24 in a stunning and rare display of dominance at Kinnick Stadium.

It marked just the fifth time since 1963 that Iowa defeated Ohio State, and the way in which it happened ranks as one of the greatest games in program history, and it was certainly a high point for Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz.

Five years, later, however, Brian Ferentz has arguably the worst offense in the country as Iowa is ranked at or near the bottom of multiple statistical categories, averaging just 238.8 yards per game, including 82.2 rushing yards per game.

Iowa opened as a 28 ½ point underdog, and that right there is a slap in the face.

But it’s easy to understand why given how pitiful the offense has been this season.

However, even with all the issues on offense, something tells me that the Iowa defense will put forth a spirited effort and will have a well-executed and keenly devised game plan.

My biggest worry is the Iowa offense will have multiple 3-and-outs, or 6-and-outs because that eventually takes a toll on the defense as was the case in the 2021 Big Ten championship game when Michigan defeated Iowa 42-3 after leading only 14-3 at halftime.

I haven’t talked to an Iowa fan that thinks Saturday’s game will be close, and I know a lot of glass-half-full Hawkeye fans.

I’m not necessarily saying the game will be close.

I just think the Iowa defense will make things more difficult for the Ohio State offense than what most expect to happen.

Maybe that’s just the delusional homer in me, but the Iowa defense is filled with pride, character, toughness, experience and talent.

From senior linebacker Jack Campbell to fifth-year senior cornerback Riley Moss to senior strong safety Kaevon Merriweather to third-year sophomore defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness, the Iowa defense ranks among the best in the country, and one of its biggest strengths is limiting big plays, while the Ohio State offense thrives on making big plays.

This will be the ultimate challenge for Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker, and for his players, trying to keep the score close enough to give Iowa a chance to do what nobody thinks it can do.

“Obviously, they’re vertical threats, so you have to be good with your hands and feet at the line and stuff,” Riley Moss said Tuesday. “But I think the biggest thing is just handling your responsibility and playing smart football.

“Because the thing about Ohio State is they kill you with the big plays. If you make them earn it, and make them drive down the field, that’s a win in our book. So, I just think eliminating the big plays and forcing them to kind of have to work for their yardage.”

Ohio State is usually very good, and sometimes elite, and this could be one of those times when the Buckeyes are elite.

“They have a really good football team,” Kirk Ferentz said Tuesday at his weekly press conference. “Very explosive offensively. You start with the quarterback, a tremendous player. They have great receivers and a big physical offensive line. Probably as big as we’ve seen, and they’re executing at a high level. Good tight ends and good running backs.

“They’re explosive, as I said, and they score points in a hurry. That jumps out at you. Tough to knock them off their track. That’s the biggest challenge. Defensively, talented at all three levels. They have a good defensive linemen, outstanding linebackers, and good guys in the secondary.

“The other thing I notice about them quickly is they play a lot of guys on defense. There’s a lot of players in and out, and doesn’t matter who’s in there. They’re playing at a really high level.”

Ohio State and defending national champion Georgia are the only teams ranked top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense.

The Buckeyes are second in total offense (543.7) and fifth in total defense (253.5).

Iowa is ranked third nationally in scoring defense (9.8), second in pass efficiency defense, third in passing yards allowed (154.0), seventh in total defense (265.0) and 13^th in red zone defense (.733).

However, it takes three phases to win games like this, and it’s hard to envision the sputtering Iowa offense finally coming to life on the road at Ohio State of all places where Iowa hasn’t played since losing 34-24 in 2013.

The only thing that made sense about Iowa’s beat-down against Ohio State in 2017 is that it happened at Kinnick Stadium rather than in Columbus.

Iowa started quickly and then fed off the crowd while building the lead.

“The fact of the matter is sometimes things just happen and sometimes, rarely, it goes like that one did,” Kirk Ferentz said. “Usually, it’s the other way.”

The hope for Hawkeye fans is that the offense will do enough on Saturday to keep the Ohio State offense off the field for long stretches.

If ever there were a game for Iowa punter Tory Taylor to perform at his highest level, this would be it.

His ability to flip field position has been one of Iowa’s biggest strengths this season, and it helps the defense immensely.

Again, I’m not predicting an upset on Saturday in Columbus.

I just think the Iowa defense will hold its own against what could be described as an offensive freakshow.

I see a final score of maybe 27-3 or 28-6 in what would be a moral victory for the Iowa defense.

Although, I wouldn’t expect any of the defensive players to see it that way.

Iowa vs. Ohio State

When: Saturday, 11:05 a.m.

Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

TV: FOX

Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network

Records/rankings: Iowa is 3-3 overall, 1-2 in the Big Ten and not ranked; Ohio State is 6-0, 2-0 and ranked second in the Associated Press poll.

Series: Ohio State leads 45-15-3.