By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – One of the neatest things about sports is that it allows you to dream, and to believe in the unbelievable.

It gives a perceived underdog a chance to defy the odds and to prove the doubters and naysayers wrong through competition.

And sometimes it reminds us with its results that anything is possible.

You probably know where this is headed because the underdog role is certainly what the Iowa football team will have when it faces mighty Michigan on Saturday in the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

At last check the spread was 23.5 points in favor of Michigan, and while that is a staggering amount for a conference championship game, it makes sense based on how dominant Michigan has been since the start of last season, and on how poorly the Iowa offense has performed during that same time.

Michigan has won 24 straight conference games since the start of the 2022 season, while the Iowa offense has been ranked at or near the bottom nationally in multiple statistical categories.

Michigan has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season, while Iowa has scored at least 30 points in just one game this season.

Michigan offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore is a finalist for the Broyles Award, and he is 6-0 as an acting head coach this season in Jim Harbaugh’s absence, and is also considered a rising star in the coaching profession, while Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz will be relieved of his duties once the season ends.

Michigan excels at an extremely high level on offense, defense and special teams, while Iowa excels at an extremely high level on defense and special teams, but at such a low level on offense that defense and special teams hasn’t been enough to beat elite teams.

Penn State, with a 10-2 record, is the best opponent Iowa has faced this season, but it wasn’t even close as the Nittany Lions rolled to a 31-0 victory in the Big Ten opener in Happy Valley.

Michigan, on the other hand, defeated Penn State 24-15 on Nov. 11 in Happy Valley.

But even with all these facts and figures that show why Iowa is a massive underdog, the game still has to be played and you just never know what will happen in the heat of the moment.

Iowa has a knack for winning close games, so what’ll happen if the score is close heading to the fourth quarter on Saturday?

One thing is certain; the pressure would shift to Michigan because it has so much riding on the game as a potential playoff team.

Iowa has a chance to tie the school record of 12 wins if it wins on Saturday, and then wins a bowl game.

But as impressive as that might be, it isn’t the same as being a potential playoff team.

Should Iowa stay within striking distance heading to the fourth quarter, then anything is possible.

“That’s how we want the game to be on Saturday and that how we expect it to be,” Iowa receiver Nico Ragaini said of the score being close in the fourth quarter.

Iowa epitomizes what it means to win ugly, and what it means in finding ways to win.

This Iowa team is probably just one controversial call against Minnesota from being 11-1 this season, and most of the wins would fall in the category of winning ugly.

Iowa has won 18 of its last 19 games in the month of November, and many of those wins have been low-scoring slugfests in which field position and controlling the tempo were both huge factors.

“When we get them in those situations like that, teams aren’t as comfortable as we are,” Ragaini said. “We expect games to be like that. We like when games get tough like that. When games get grimey and who can out-tough the other team by the end of the game.

“We feel like teams start to get softer at that point where we come alive at those points. So, if we can make the game like that on Saturday, I’m very confident in ourselves.”

Big Ten Punter of the Year Tory Tory Taylor could have a huge impact on Saturday’s game with his ability to flip field position.

While Michigan has an explosive offense with big-play receivers and a versatile quarterback, the offense is built around its running game.

Michigan would prefer to ram it down an opponent’s throat with a power running game that features senior running back Blake Corum, and then build off that with play action.

But that becomes more difficult if your offense is repeatedly buried deep in your own territory.

The fact that Michigan pummeled Iowa 42-3 in the 2021 Big Ten Championship game is also helping to fuel the Iowa-doesn’t-have-a-chance narrative, even though it was two years ago and so much has changed, including the starting quarterback for Michigan.

Junior J.J. McCarthy, a former five-star recruit, now starts at quarterback for Michigan and has performed at a very high level, while his predecessor at Michigan, Cade McNamara, now plays quarterback for Iowa, though, he is injured and won’t play in Saturday’s game.

The first step in Cade McNamara becoming an Iowa quarterback was losing the starting position to McCarthy early last season.

It’s unfortunate that McNamara and tight end Erick All, who also transferred from Michigan, but is injured, won’t play in Saturday’s game because for one, it probably would’ve improved Iowa’s slim chance of winning, or at least being competitive, and it would’ve been an intriguing storyline.

The Iowa offense, even at full strength, left much to be desired, but take away McNamara, All and fellow tight end Luke Lachey and that’s a lot to overcome.

Deacon Hill has been mediocre at best as McNamara’s replacement, but in fairness, Hill didn’t expect to be in this role when he transferred to Iowa from Wisconsin after last season.

He has been put on an accelerated course and there have been times when he has appeared in over his head.

But Hill is apparently the best Iowa has right now or he wouldn’t be starting.

He certainly doesn’t have to win Saturday’s game, but he has to avoid losing the game by committing turnovers.

And speaking of turnovers, that could be the great equalizer for Iowa on Saturday.

However, Michigan is good at protecting the football and even better at creating turnovers.

Michigan has scored points on 17 of the 23 opponent turnovers this season, including 13 touchdowns.

The Michigan defense has held opponents to just nine points (three field goals) off seven Michigan turnovers.

Iowa and Michigan last met on Oct. 1, 2022 at Kinnick Stadium with the Wolverines winning 27-14, giving Jim Harbaugh his first win at Kinnick Stadium.

Michigan led 20-0 heading to the fourth quarter and was clearly the better team that day.

Iowa then scored a touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter, at least giving itself a chance.

Michigan also was held to just 327 yards on 66 plays, so it was far from domination.

So, perhaps the Iowa players could take something from that game and build on, just like they could take something from what happened two years ago in the Big Ten Championship game and learn from that.

“Obviously, Michigan is a very good team,” Ragaini said. “So, we know that if we go into a game against a really good team and we’re not on our Ps and Qs, that can happen, and we don’t want that to happen.

“So, we have to be more mentally locked in this week and physically locked in, everything. We have to be locked in as much as we possibly can to give us the best chance to win this Saturday.”

The roots of an upset start with believing that you can do it.

These Iowa players and coaches have overcome numerous obstacles and adversity to reach this point.

They now have to overcame an elite opponent that is trying to win a national title.

“Really, a lot of it just comes down to belief,” said Tory Taylor. “It’s a game of sixty minutes and it’s not over until it’s over. We kind of saw that on the weekend.”

Iowa proved that in last Friday 13-10 victory over Nebraska, which was decided on a 38-yard field goal by Marshall Meeder as time expired.

Meeder’s game-winning kick came just seconds after both teams had thrown interceptions near midfield.

“I’ll be the first one to admit that when Deacon threw that pick at midfield, I was kind of like, ‘oh, man, we’re probably not going to win this one, but at least there’s next week,” Tory Taylor said. “As bad as that might sound, that was kind of going through my mind.

“And then all of the sudden their quarterback threw a pick and I was like, ‘oh, let’s go. I was like Marshall let’s get going,’ and I remember getting a few snaps in.”

A 22-yard run by Leshon Williams helped to set up Meeder’s game-winning field goal.

“And then Leshon had that big run and I was just like, ‘there’s no way we’re going to win this game is there?'” Taylor said. “And then what do you know, we always just find a way.

“It’s honestly crazy.”

Both head coaches will enter Saturday’s game as sort of sympathetic figures.

The Michigan players are rallying behind Jim Harbaugh, who they believe has been treated unfairly by the Big Ten with this most recent three-game suspension, while the Iowa players are rallying behind Kirk Ferentz, and behind Brian Ferentz, in the wake of Brian Ferentz being fired in season.

“If you believe in yourself and you’re surrounded by a bunch of guys that believe in themselves, it’s empowering,” Ragaini said. “And I think we all believe in ourselves and I’m ready for the challenge. We are ready for the challenge.”

Iowa (10-2) vs. Michigan (12-0)

When: Saturday, 7:15 p.m.

Where: Indianapolis, Lucas Oil Stadium (70,000)

TV: FOX

Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network

Series record: Michigan leads, 44-15-4

Neutral site record: Michigan leads, 1-0

Last meeting: Michigan won 27-14 on Oct. 1, 2002 at Kinnick Stadium