By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – For the Iowa football team, part two of Operation Must Win will continue on Saturday against Michigan State in East Lansing, Michigan.

If the Hawkeyes lose, their already slim chance of making the 12-team playoff would be eliminated, whereas if they win, they would survive  for another week and then have to do it five more times.

That’s pretty much where Iowa (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) stands right now with two losses.

A third loss would be devastating from a post-season standpoint.

Fans would go from hoping to be in the playoff to probably preparing for would likely be another bowl game in Florida.

Kirk Ferentz likes to say there is no such thing as a bad bowl game, but if it comes instead of making the playoff, and is one that already has hosted Iowa multiple times, it loses some of its glow.

So, it just comes down to Iowa not losing again this regular season.

That will certainly be a daunting task, but on the other hand, Iowa will likely be favored in each of the remaining six games.

Iowa is a 6.5 favorite over the 3-3 Spartans, whose roster has been overhauled under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith, with 61 newcomers.

Michigan State is certainly capable of beating Iowa if it plays well and Iowa doesn’t play well.

The best team on paper doesn’t always win on the field.

One long-standing belief when upsets happen is that one team wanted it more than the other, which is just silly.

Upsets happen because competition brings out all sorts of performance levels.

And to be fair to Michigan State, beating Iowa on Saturday at home wouldn’t be much of an upset, because so far, Michigan State isn’t bad enough and Iowa isn’t good enough for it to qualify as an upset.

The Spartans had chance in their two previous games to pull off legitimate upsets, but fell to Ohio State and Oregon by scores of 38-7 and 31-10, respectively.

Iowa had a chance to upset Ohio State, but lost 35-7 on Oct. 5 in Columbus, Ohio.

So, from a head-to-head standpoint, Iowa and and Michigan State look pretty even since Iowa lost to Ohio State by 28 points, while Michigan State lost to the Buckeyes by 31 points.

However, Michigan State did lose to Ohio State at home, while Iowa lost in Columbus.

“It’s kind of tough to judge them,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said of the Spartans. “You look at their record. There’s a lot of teams 4-2, 3-3, 2-4 in the Big Ten. You consider they have played arguably two of the best teams, if not the best teams, not only in the conference, but in the country their last two times out. It’s going to be a big challenge for us.”

Yes, the game will be a challenge for Iowa, but it still feels like a game that Iowa should win, and that Iowa will win.

No disrespect to the Spartans, but they’re only averaging 120.2 rushing yards per game, and their starting quarterback, sophomore Aidan Chiles, has thrown more interception (8) than touchdowns passes (5).

The teams look pretty even on special teams. but Iowa has an edge on both offense and defense.

The advantage on offense comes from Iowa’s running game, which leads the Big Ten with an average of 222.8 rushing yards per game.

Iowa is averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game than Michigan State.

If those numbers were to play out on Saturday, the Spartans would likely lose their fourth straight game.

Graduate quarterback Cade McNamara is expected to make his 12th start for Iowa on Saturday, and his 28th start overall.

His first 16 collegiate starts came for Michigan, including a 37-33 loss to Michigan State in 2021 when McNamara threw for 383 yards and two touchdowns.

Much has changed over the past three years as McNamara now plays for a different team, while Michigan State has a different head coach and practically a new roster.

McNamara was asked on Tuesday if facing Michigan State has any significance given his history with the Spartans.

In addition to the loss in 2021, McNamara also suffered a season-ending knee injury against Michigan State in the fifth game of last season while playing for Iowa.

“Not really,” he said. “At this point, I’ve played a lot of teams in the Big Ten. This year I’ve been healthy, and for me to see these teams whether it’s the second or third time, that’s the exciting part, and that’s what’s nice about the familiarity with defenses.

“Honestly, really since the last time I played, I really wouldn’t even consider it playing them when I got hurt the last time I played them. With all the defenses that we face, the coordinators have changed, the players have changed since the last time I played them.

“So, it makes it exciting preparing for them during the week, and they’re a really good team. They’re a good defense, and they’ve played some really good teams, obviously. So, we’re going to have to play our best in order to win.”

McNamara has mostly become a game manager for Iowa and there isn’t anything wrong with that as long as the Kaleb Johnson-led running game stays ahead of the chains.

Johnson enters Saturday’s game as the nation’s second leading rusher with 937 yards, He has also scored 13 touchdown, including 12 on the ground.

To help put those numbers in perspective, Michigan State has rushed for 721 yards as a team and has scored seven rushing touchdowns, including three by the quarterback.

Saturday’s game, which will start at 6:34 p.m., will mark the 15-year anniversary of the 2009 game in which Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi connected with Marvin McNutt for a touchdown pass as time expired to give Iowa 15-13 victory.

That game is also the last time Iowa has played a night game in East Lansing.

If Iowa were to play its best on Saturday, it should be another fun night.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Michigan State 12

 

Iowa (4-2, 2-1) vs. Michigan State (3-3, 1-2)

When: Saturday, 6:34 p.m.

Where: East Lansing, Michigan, Spartan Stadium (74,866)

TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock

Radio: Iowa Radio Network

All-time series: Iowa leads 25-22,2

Last meeting: Iowa won 26-16 on Sept. 30, 2023 in Iowa City