By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Until the college football playoff expands to 24 teams, which seems inevitable, anything worse than a 10-2 record would almost certainly eliminate the Iowa football team from playoff contention.

That’s a big reason why Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz wants the field to grow from 12 teams to 24 because Iowa’s chances of making a 24-team playoff compared to 12 would improve significantly.

Iowa finished 8-4 in the 2025 regular-season and was ranked No. 23 heading into the Reliaquest Bowl where it defeated Vanderbilt 34-27 and then climbed to 17th in both polls.

But with just 12 teams in the playoff, Iowa’s margin for error is not quite razor thin, but thin nonetheless, considering Iowa has finished 10-2 or better in the regular season just five times under Kirk Ferentz: 2002, 2009, 2015, 2021 and 2023.

Iowa’s 2004 Big Ten champion team finished 10-2, but the 10th win came against LSU in the Capital One Bowl, while the 2003 Hawkeye squad finished 10-3 with the 10th win coming against Florida in the Outback Bowl.

Iowa also finished 10-3 in 2019 with the 10th win coming against USC in the Holiday Bowl.

Iowa will face Northern Illinois in 2026 season opener on Sept. 5 at Kinnick Stadium, followed by two more nonconference games at home against Iowa State on Sept. 12 and against Northern Iowa on Sept. 19.

On paper, which is all there is at this point, Iowa’s 2026 nonconference schedule doesn’t look very competitive.

Northern Illinois only finished 3-9 last season and is led by interim head coach Rob Harley, who took on that role after previous head coach Thomas Hammock left in February to join the Seattle Seahawks staff.

The Huskies have questions at quarterback and youth on both lines, which could make their switch to the Mountain West Conference a struggle in year one.

Iowa State finished 8-4 last season and has won three of the last four games against Iowa.

However, few power-conference programs have endured as much change as Iowa State has since the end of last season.

In addition to having a new head coach with Jimmy Rogers having replaced Matt Campbell, the Cyclones also have approximately 80 first-year players on the roster.

Campbell is now the head coach at Penn State, and he took with him most of Iowa State’s best players, including quarterback Rocco Becht.

So it’s just hard to see the Cyclones being much of a threat this season, while Northern Iowa only finished 3-9 last season.

If Iowa doesn’t start this season 3-0, making the 12-team playoff would be virtually impossible.

It would be hard enough for Iowa to make the playoff, even if it wins all three nonconference games, because there is a very realistic possibility that Iowa could start Big Ten play with three straight losses to Michigan on the road, at home against Ohio State and at Washington.

All three of those teams are ranked above Iowa in the Preseason Coaches Poll, and all three of them also return their starting quarterback from last season, while Iowa doesn’t.

Iowa also has to replace three All-Big Ten offensive linemen, record-breaking kicker Drew Stevens, starting punter Rhys Dakin, eight starters on defense and one of the greatest return specialist in Big Ten history in Kaden Wetjen.

Iowa also has a new special teams coordinator with Chris Polizzi having replaced the highly successful LeVar Woods, who now coaches special teams for Michigan State.

The challenge for Iowa will be to avoid being 3-3 midway through the season because that would almost certainly drop it from the playoff hunt, while a 4-2 record would have Iowa hanging by a thread.

If Iowa were to make the playoff this season, it would rank as one of Kirk Ferentz’s best coaching performances because of the difficult circumstances.

Iowa started last season 3-2, but then won three straight games to at least stay in the playoff discussion until losing at home to Oregon 18-16 in the ninth game.

Iowa then fell at USC 26-21 a week later, dropping its record to 6-4.

The season could’ve easily unraveled at that point, but instead, the Hawkeyes won their final three regular-season games to finish with nine wins, and with some momentum heading to the offseason.

If you judge success based solely on Iowa making the 12-team playoff, then this season could be a disappointment just midway through the schedule.

I predict that Iowa will be 3-3 midway through the regular season, but will then win five of its last six games to finish 8-4.

That would probably be good enough to make a 24-team playoff, but not enough to make a 12-team playoff.

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Iowa’s 2026 schedule/game predictions

Sept. 5, vs. Northern Illinois, W

Sept. 12, vs. Iowa State, W

Sept. 19 vs. Northern Iowa, W

Sept. 26, at Michigan, L

Oct. 3, vs. Ohio State, L

Oct. 10, at Washington, L

Oct. 24, at Minnesota, W

Oct. 31, vs. Wisconsin, W

Nov. 7, at Northwestern, W

Nov. 14, vs. Purdue, W

Nov. 21, at Illinois, L

Nov. 27, vs. Nebraska, W