Harty: The 2016-17 Iowa men’s basketball team is filled with uncertainties
BROOKLYN, N.Y. – In the wake of the beat-down at the Barclays Center on Sunday, a narrative has developed on social media that makes no sense right now.
There is a belief that the Iowa men’s basketball team will benefit from its four senior starters having used up their eligibility in Sunday’s 87-68 loss to Villanova in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Not only is that disrespectful to a senior class that won 89 games and made three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, it’s wishing thinking at this stage.
I’m not saying Iowa will definitely struggle next season without the four seniors. But there is little proof to suggest that it would benefit without them.
Iowa is a mystery heading into next season, with 6-foot-6 senior-to-be Peter Jok the only returning starter from a team that finished 22-11 this season, but that also lost seven of its last 10 games.
The cupboard certainly isn’t bare, no pun intended, considering the improbable rise of 6-7 walk-on forward Nicholas Baer, the versatility of 6-9 forward Dom Uhl, the athleticism of 6-7 forward/center Ahmad Wagner and the late-season emergence of 6-6 guard Christian Williams.
Uhl, however, is the only player in that group who averaged at least five points per game this season. Baer was close at 4.8, thanks partly to his 15-point outburst against Villanova.
But as a whole, Iowa’s 2015-16 roster will be filled with players who haven’t been counted on as leaders or go-to options on offense. Baer assumed that role against Villanova, but only because the five starters were playing poorly.
Getting pounded on the biggest of all stages was a horrible way for the seniors to leave the program. And it probably has fueled the belief that Iowa is better off without them.
But the truth is, we don’t have a clue about Iowa’s team for next season.
You could say that about any team that hasn’t played a game yet.
But we had a pretty good idea about what to expect from Iowa this season because the four seniors – forward Jarrod Uthoff, center Adam Woodbury and guards Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell – had played so extensively. They had combined to start 260 games heading into their senior seasons.
Baer, Uhl, Wagner and Williams, on the other hand, have combined to start one game, with Uhl earning that distinction this season as a sophomore.
Iowa’s other returning players include Ellingson, guard Andrew Fleming, forward Dale Jones and wing players Brandon Hutton and Isaiah Moss, both of whom were redshirted this season as true freshmen.
The 6-8 Jones also appeared in just six games before suffering a season-ending knee injury. The Waterloo native came to Iowa from junior college with the reputation as a solid 3-point shooter, but he didn’t get the chance to prove it.
It’s also hard to know what to expect from the 6-4 Fleming, who appeared briefly in 11 games this season as a true freshman.
“I’m confident about what we have in this program,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery said after the Villanova loss. “We’ve got a really good class coming in. We’ve got a really good class coming back. But we’ve got a lot work to do.”
Iowa’s incoming recruiting class is highlighted by 6-8 power forward Tyler Cook, a four-star prospect from St. Louis. He appears to have the physical tools to contribute immediately.
The other incoming recruits are 6-8 forward Cordell Pemsl from Dubuque Wahlert, 6-9 Ryan Kriener from Spirit Lake and 6-1 guard Jordan Bohannon from Linn-Mar.
Bohannon could have a chance to contribute immediately with both starting guard positions now open, especially if he proves that he can make 3-point shots on a somewhat consistent basis.
The key, though, is Williams.
Iowa would benefit immensely if he could handle the point guard position because that’s what McCaffery needs more than anything next season. Williams also has enough size to play shooting guard and perhaps small forward.
“In a couple weeks, I’m going to start getting in the gym and preparing for next year,” Williams said after the Villanova loss.
Williams barely had played before he moved ahead of sophomore-to-be shooting guard Brady Ellingson in the rotation in early February. Williams only scored 27 points this season, but 16 came in the final eight games.
“As I kept getting in towards the end of the season, I think it gave me a lot more confidence going into next year,” Williams said. “And then the (NCAA) Tournament gave me more and more confidence going into next season."
Iowa will build its offense around Jok, who more than doubled his scoring average this season as a junior compared to his sophomore season. Jok averaged 16.0 points per game this season after averaging 7.0 points per game as a sophomore.
“Obviously, Pete is going to be our guy next year and we’ve got to load him up,” Williams said. “And I think us young guys and the guys we have coming in, we’re going to be a lot more athletic, I believe.
“And I think we’re going to cause some teams problems offensively and defensively. And I think we can make a run.”
Williams has to think that way because confidence is a big part of the equation.
And it could happen because Iowa should be pretty athletic next season.
But to assume it will happen because the four senior starters have departed is presumptuous and kind of silly.