Harty: Upon further review, I’m thinking 10 wins for Iowa football
IOWA CITY, Iowa – Maybe it’s the excitement as the 2016 college football season approaches, but I’ve changed my prediction for the Iowa Hawkeyes.
My 9-3 prediction from early spring has been upgraded to 10-2 for several reasons, not the least of which is the homer factor, I’m willing to admit. It’s easier to give the team you cover the benefit of the doubt because, well, it’s the team you cover.
But we’re also talking about an Iowa team that returns 13 starters, including eight on defense, from a team that finished the regular season undefeated a year ago and 12-2 overall.
The odds of Iowa running the table again probably are slim to none. But the chance of Iowa losing four or five games also seems low, assuming quarterback C.J. Beathard stays healthy.
One player doesn’t make or break a football team, but it’s close with Beathard. His impact goes beyond just making plays himself. Beathard’s teammates seem to feed off his energy and moxie to where he makes them perform better.
Iowa also returns the 2015 Jim Thorpe Award winner in senior cornerback Desmond King. No other team has been in this position as King is the first Jim Thorpe Award recipient to return to college.
Combine King and Beathard with a solid group of running backs, an experienced offensive line and seven other starters on defense and you have a team that should be capable of winning 10 games with its schedule.
The biggest concern is on special teams where Iowa has to replace both kickers. It’s reasonable to expect some growing pains in that regard.
But the good still outweighs the bad to where I have Iowa finishing with double-digit wins for the sixth time under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
Iowa 38, Miami (Ohio) 14: The RedHawks have combined to win just five games over the past two seasons and only have one road win since 2012. So yes, the days of Ben Roethlisberger are long gone.
Iowa 27, Iowa State 17: The combination of C.J. Beathard at quarterback, a Desmond King/Josey Jewell-led defense and home-field advantage should be enough to carry the Hawkeyes, although, the Cyclones will be riding high with emotion as always, but even more so under new head coach Matt Campbell.
Iowa 28, North Dakota State 16: A lesser Iowa team might stumble under the circumstances because defeating the Bison will be no easy task, even at Kinnick Stadium. The five-time defending FCS national champion returns 14 starters and is favored to continue its historic run.
Iowa 34, Rutgers 20: The Scarlet Knights have enough individual talent under new head coach Chris Ash to make the game competitive. They also should benefit from home-field advantage. But that still shouldn’t be enough to defeat the Hawkeyes if they truly are a legitimate Big Ten contender.
Iowa 24, Northwestern 21: In most cases, playing at home would be considered a huge advantage. But it means little when the Hawkeyes and Wildcats square off. Iowa pounded Northwestern 40-10 in Evanston, Ill., last season despite being decimated by injuries. Beathard barely could run and the offensive line was in shambles, and yet, Iowa still rushed for 294 yards and was dominant on defense. Expect this year’s game to be more competitive with Iowa doing just enough to prevail at home.
Minnesota 23, Iowa 21: Before you criticize this pick, consider that Minnesota nearly upset Iowa last season, losing 40-35 at Kinnick Stadium in a game that saw the Gophers amass 434 yards, including 301 passing yards. Minnesota returns 14 starters, including vastly improved quarterback Mitch Leidner, and plays much better at home.
Iowa 35, Purdue 20: Take what was said for the Rutgers game, substitute Boilermakers for Scarlet Knights and apply it here.
Iowa 20, Wisconsin 19: Somebody for Iowa will make a last-second field goal to secure the victory. At this point, though, it’s hard to say who.
Penn State 22, Iowa 15: This might seem like the latest head-scratching loss for Iowa under Ferentz, whose teams have a tendency to lay an egg every now and then. But losing to Penn State at sold-out Beaver Stadium isn’t the same as losing to a directional school from Michigan at home.
Iowa 30, Michigan 24: This is where I’ve changed my pick since the early spring, now giving Iowa the slight edge, mostly because of home-field advantage. Michigan probably has more talent than Iowa, and shows signs of climbing back to elite status under Jim Harbaugh. But the Wolverines also have a void to fill at quarterback, while Iowa has arguably the first or second best quarterback in the Big Ten.
Iowa 41, Illinois 28: The final road game of the season has trap game written all over it because it comes a week after the Michigan game and six days before the Nebraska game. I’m trusting that Iowa’s senior leadership and focus will help to avoid this potential stumbling block. Illinois has some talented players on both sides of the line of a scrimmage and a new head coach in Lovie Smith, who brings credibility to the program after serving as head coach for the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Iowa 24, Nebraska 18: Assuming Beathard is healthy, along with his supporting cast, it’s hard to see Iowa losing its final game at Kinnick Stadium to any opponent except for maybe Ohio State, Alabama or Nebraska’s teams from the mid-1990s.
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State 31, Iowa 17: At some point, talent prevails over all other factors. And no team in the Big Ten, or maybe even the country for that matter, has more talent than Ohio State.