By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – I’m on the record for predicting a 6-6 record for the Iowa football team this season, including a loss at Iowa State in week two.

But with the addition of graduate transfer running back James Butler, and after ranking the teams from one to 14, I could be talked into 7-5 because Iowa more than holds its own on paper, which is all there is at this stage, with nearly half of the teams in the conference.

Iowa is clearly superior to Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue and Maryland on paper, and as good, or maybe slightly better, than Nebraska, Minnesota and Michigan State.

You could argue that Iowa and Northwestern are even on paper, and that Wisconsin is just a little better than the Hawkeyes on paper.

Michigan is hard to figure because the roster is filled with four- and five-star recruits, but many of them are young and inexperienced. Michigan was hit hard by graduation, especially on defense where only one full-time starter returns.

Penn State has an advantage over Iowa on paper, but I also have the Nittany Lions losing to Iowa this coming season.

The only team left is Ohio State, and in this case, I saved the best for last. The only question about Ohio State on paper is whether it’s better than Alabama.

Iowa plays four of the five teams ranked ahead of it on this list, which is a key factor in predicting a 6-6 or 7-5 record for the Hawkeyes.

1. Ohio State:  The Buckeyes always look good on paper, but this team looks special, even by Ohio State’s lofty standards. If Kevin Wilson shines as the new offensive coordinator and fifth-year senior quarterback J.T. Barrett returns to his 2014 form, Ohio State has the pieces to win the national championship.

Throw in Urban Meyer’s impact as head coach, and the motivation from losing to Clemson 31-0 in a national semifinal last season and there is perfect storm brewing in Columbus.

2. Penn State: The Nittany Lions are loaded on offense with 10 starters returning, including star running back Saquon Barkley and rising star quarterback Trace McSorley.

Another reason for optimism is that Joe Moorhead also returns for his second season as the Penn State offensive coordinator. It is no coincidence that Penn State averaged 37.6 points per game last season, up from 23.2 in 2015.

3. Wisconsin: The Badgers have earned the benefit of the doubt based on their long-standing consistency. It is the same with the Wisconsin men’s basketball team.

Both teams recruit what is mostly considered developmental or marginal talent, but often compete at an elite level.

This Badger squad has more than tradition on its side, though, with four starters returning on the offensive line, along with quarterback Alex Hornibrook.

And if the team does struggle, Barry Alvarez is always nearby to help.

4. Michigan: Most teams with only six starters returning would face a rebuilding project, but Michigan under Jim Harbaugh isn’t like most teams.

Michigan’s last two recruiting classes were considered elite and there already was talent on the roster when Harbaugh arrived in 2015. Harbaugh’s ability to reload at an elite level will be tested by a schedule that includes road games at Penn State and Wisconsin, and the annual showdown with Ohio State at home.

5. Northwestern: A star running back, a solid quarterback, experience on both lines and a rock-solid secondary are just some of the reasons Northwestern is ranked this high.

Pat Fitzgerald’s impact as head coach is another reason, along with a schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Michigan.

6. Iowa: I went into this thinking that Iowa would be ranked lower, but none of the other remaining eight teams look better than the Hawkeyes on paper.

A fan from Nebraska or Minnesota probably would call me a homer because you could make a case for picking both of those teams ahead of Iowa on paper.

I gave Iowa the slightest edge because of how strong it looks on the offensive line, and at running back, defensive end and linebacker.

All three teams will be starting a new quarterback so that sort of cancels itself out on paper.

7. Minnesota: P.J. Fleck wasn’t hired to rebuild the Minnesota program because that isn’t necessary in the wake of winning nine games last season.

Fleck was hired to restore order and dignity following a sexual assault investigation involving 10 Gopher players, and to make Minnesota elite, which hasn’t happened in over a half century.

This team is far from being elite, but has enough talent and depth, along with a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Penn State, to make a bowl game in Fleck’s much-anticipated debut season.  

8. Nebraska: Mike Riley did a pretty go Bo Pelini impersonation last season, minus the fits of rage, by leading Nebraska to nine wins.

But as was the case with Pelini, nine victories wasn’t cause for celebration for a program whose glory years ended nearly 20 years ago.

The hiring of Bob Diaco as defensive coordinator has lit a spark and ushered in a new era with the Cornhuskers switching from a 4-3 defensive alignment to a 3-4 under Diaco, who played linebacker at Iowa in the mid-1990s.

Tulane transfer Tanner Lee is expected to take over at quarterback. He isn’t as shifty as previous starter Tommy Armstrong, but Lee’s passing skills might fit better in Riley’s pro-style offense.

9. Michigan State: Nobody saw Michigan State’s collapse coming last season. How could you have seen it coming under the circumstances?

A program that had won 12, 11 and 13 games in each of the previous three seasons was above finishing 3-9, or so we thought.

Mark Dantonio probably isn’t coaching for his job yet, but another 3-9 debacle like last season and he might be. Especially when you factor in all the turmoil off the field with players being arrested.

There still is plenty of talent on the Michigan State roster, but there is uncertainty at quarterback for the second year in a row and only one starter returns on the offensive line.

10. Indiana: Kevin Wilson wasn’t dismissed as the Indiana head coach for losing too many football games. He was let go because for one, he clashed with Indiana athletic director Fred Glass, and because there was too much controversy surrounding the program.

But from a talent standpoint, the Indiana program is in pretty good shape.

Tom Allen takes over a program that has played in back-to-back bowl games for the first time since the 1990 and 1991 seasons. This will only be his second season in the program. He was promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach shortly after Wilson’s departure.

11. Maryland: The Terrapins, with a 6-6 record, doubled their win total last season from the previous season under new head coach D.J. Durkin.

Durkin and his staff also signed what is considered a top-20 recruiting class in 2017. So there is reason to be optimistic, until you look at Maryland’s schedule, which starts with a game at Texas on Sept. 2 and has games at Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin and home games against  Northwestern, Michigan and Penn State.

12. Purdue: Jeff Brohm hopes to do what Joe Tiller accomplished at Purdue nearly 20 years go by using an explosive offense to turn a struggling program into Big Ten force.

Brohm comes to Purdue after three seasons as head coach at Western Kentucky where his quick-strike, pro-style offense set 75 school records.

But he also takes over a program that haa recorded losing records in eight of the last nine seasons and that won just three Big Ten gams in four seasons under former head coach Darrell Hazell.

13. Illinois: The Lovie Smith honeymoon is over, if ever there was one.

Illinois regressed in his first season as head coach, winning just three games after winning five in the previous season.

The hope is that Smith can use his success as an NFL coach to recruit top-notch talent, but there are no signs of that yet.

14. Rutgers: Let’s start with something positive because there isn’t much from which to choose, but the addition of Jerry Kill as the new offensive coordinator is encouraging. Kill has been successful at each of his head coaching stops, and was on the verge of building Minnesota into respectable program when he had to resign in 2015 for health reasons.

The bad news is that Kill can only do so much. Rutgers performed woefully last season and was outgaiend by an average of 232.2 yards per game in Big ten action.