AH week 11 picks: Iowa will bounce back for the seniors
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – In late July, I picked the Iowa football team to lose at Wisconsin because most visiting teams lose at Wisconsin.
But then last week, I changed my mind and picked the Hawkeyes to win at Camp Randall Stadium because the Badgers were decimated by injuries and because Iowa was coming off a historic 55-24 victory over Ohio State the week before at Kinnick Stadium.
I mistakenly bought into the hype from the Buckeye beat down and couldn't have been more wrong as Wisconsin held Iowa to just 66 yards during a 38-14 victory. It was the fewest yards in 19 seasons under Kirk Ferentz and a painful reminder that this Iowa team is more and up and down than a rock climber.
Just when you think the Hawkeyes had turrned the corner, they stall and break down.
But now Iowa has a chance to get back up, and I believe it will against Purdue on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.
Purdue has improved significantly under first-year coach Jeff Brohm, but Purdue still isn't Wisconsin.
Saturday's game also will be played at Kinnick Stadium and with lots of emotion with it being Senior Day. Iowa will honor 18 seniors before the game, including its three starting linebackers, Josey Jewell, Ben Niemann and Bo Bower.
It's hard to see Iowa's three senior linebackers failing to deliver on Senior Day against an opponent that is on the rise, but still average at best.
"I've seen some videos and I know their coach is a really energetic guy and he's got their team ready to go and excited to think about playiung Purdue football," Niemann said. "So it's definitley going to be a challenge and a big opportunity for us.
"Last game at Kinnick and we want to win it. So we're going to have to be ready to go."
Lowly Illinois is probably the only Big Ten team in which a Big Ten opponent can struggle and still prevail against. Iowa sputtered for three quarters against Illinois before pulling away to win 45-16 on on Oct. 7 at Kinnick Stadium.
To do the sama againt Purdue would be dangerous.
Brohm is known for his high-scoring offense, and has lived up to that reputation with Purdue ranked a respectable fifth in the conference in total offense, averaging 393.8 yards per game.
But it's the Purdue rushing defense that has helped to make the team complete. The Boilermakers are only allowing 139.4 rushing yards per game and have held opponents to 17 or fewer points in five games.
Purdue can play with finesse and be physical at the same time.
"They're a really good football team right now," Kirk Ferentz said of Purdue. "They're playing with a lot of energy, a lot of passion, and playing really good football right now. They're moving the ball well. That really comes as no surprise with his offensive background, his expertise. Defensively it's equally as impressive to me, and they have not been strong defensively over the last couple years, but they're playing really well on defense right now, and I think just overall if you look at it collectively, the thing that impresses me, especially since their off week, they've played really good football.
"They've played Wisconsin closer than anybody in Madison thus far. They gave them the best game and played them the most competitively in Madison."
Ferentz was referring to Purdue's 17-9 loss at Wiscosin on Oct. 14 in which Boilermakers forced three turnoves.
Right guard Sean Welsh is one of the 18 seniors who will make their final appearance at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. His teammates will rally behind Welsh,and maybe the much-maligned Iowa running game game will do the same.
Purdue is ranked just 12th in the conference in passing defense, allowing 230.2 yards per game. So if Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley has time to throw from the pocket, the Boilermakers could be in trouble. Stanley has thrown 23 touchdown passes and just five interceptions this season.
Iowa strives for balnace on offense because that allows for play action. But it starts with establishing the running game, which never happened against Wisconsin.
"It's always part of our plan," Kirk Ferentz said of play action. "That's how we're wired and built. But the game, the way it goes really dictates how you start calling things. The other night we didn't settle into anything that really felt good, looked good, that type of thing. It's a lot more fun, you get a little rhythm, and if he can start with a good run game that always helps. But you kind of have to go in and then adjust as you go along."
I picked Iowa defeat to Purdue in late July when I did my predictons for this season and I'm sticking with that pick. The emotion from Senior Day, coupled with home-field advantage should give Iowa an edge.
Pat Harty
Iowa 29, Purdue 19: Hawkeye fans storm the field early in the second quarter after the Iowa offense surpasses 66 yards.
Wisconsin 10, Michigan 7: Barry Alvarez celebates the win by naming himself Big Ten Athletic Director of the Week.
Indiana 38, Rutgers 35: Before you make fun of this game and ask why it's part of this week's picks, remember it could be worse. It could be a men's basketball game matching these two schools.
Iowa State 44, Baylor 20: So scared that Matt Campbell will leave for a different job, Iowa State fans agree to call him the new mayor of Ames, at least until Fred Hoiberg comes home.
Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 27: Bret Bielema celebrates the win by updating his resume so he's ready when Nebraska comes calling late in the afternoon on Black Friday and by eating a Big Mac in one bite.
Last week: 2-3
Overall: 29-21
Tyler Devine
Iowa 31, Purdue 17: Josh Jackson has four pick-sixes and kicks Iowa's lone field goal as the offense somehow manages just 88 yards. Jackson is then awarded the Heisman Trophy during the postgame news conference.
Wisconsin 15, Michigan 12: Jim Harbaugh asks Paul Chryst to have a sleepover to try and lure Chryst to join his staff.
Indiana 34, Rutgers 28: I'm sure there are less interesting games on television this weekend, but I can't think of any off the top of my head.
Iowa State 48, Baylor 0: After the win, Matt Campbell is rumored to be replacing Jon Gruden on Monday Night Football.
Mississippi State 27, Arkansas 24: The only thing leaving Arkansas quicker than Bret Bielema is its fanbase.
Last week: 3-2
Overall: 30-20
Dylan Burn
Iowa 30 Purdue 28: Purdue improved a lot since last season. They are allowing less points and have been stout against the run. Which Iowa team will we see? They've looked like two different teams the last few weeks, but I think they get it done on Senior day behind a commitment to the run.
Wisconsin 35 Michigan 13: The Badgers are good and Michigan isn't good enough to hang around. Wisconsin is disciplined and they're dedicated to the run. Jonathan Taylor has been the best freshman back in the conference and I expect him to roll again on Saturday.
Indiana 32 Rutgers 20: The Hoosiers have played wel against some good teams this year, but have come up short. This Rutgers team is, well, not good. And the Hoosiers will roll.
Iowa State 40 Baylor 14: I talked about Rutgers being bad, well Baylor is definitely worse.
Mississppi State 38 Arkansas 30: The Bulldogs played Alabama well last week and I think they get the job done this week after Arkansas just fired their AD. Distractions!
Last week: 3-2
Overall: 25-15