By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – That gut feeling, or maybe it was clairvoyance, that told me the Iowa football team would beat Purdue and Wisconsin has me feeling the same about Saturday’s game at Minnesota.

This feeling isn’t as strong, however, because Minnesota is pretty good and playing at home, and because the weather conditions could be a major obstacle that one team handles better than the other on a given day, and because of the law of averages.

Iowa has won seven straight in the series and 17 of the last 21 games in the series.

P.J. Fleck has been impressive as the Minnesota head coach, with a 42-26 overall record, but he hasn’t defeated Iowa, although five of the last seven games were decided by seven or fewer points.

Iowa defeated Minnesota last season 27-22 at Kinnick Stadium despite being outgained 189 to 71 on the ground.

Fleck is the polar opposite of Kirk Ferentz in that he loves the spotlight, loves hearing himself talk and never stops moving.

But he also knows how to coach, and he has a pretty talented roster that includes star running back Mohamed Ibrahim, and standout center John Michael Schmitz, so, you’d think at some point that Fleck finally would get the best of Kirk Ferentz and Iowa.

That’s probably my biggest concern about this game, the law of averages.

“They’re 7-3 and playing on a roll,” Kirk Ferentz said of the Gophers. “They, too, have a strong defensive football team. They’ve run the ball extremely well.

“Our conference is full of really good backs. Just seems like everywhere you turn there’s some really exceptional backs. And Minnesota’s back is probably the most proven veteran of the group. And overcome hardships, injuries, et cetera. And he’s just an impressive guy.”

My biggest reason for picking Iowa is because the Iowa defense is the best of all the units on both teams.

The Minnesota defense as Kirk Ferentz said is very good, and isn’t ranked far behind Iowa in most statistical categories in the Big Ten.

For example, Iowa is ranked third in the Big Ten in total defense (260.7), while Minnesota is ranked fifth (274.0)

Iowa is ranked third in the conference in rushing defense (88.6), while Minnesota is ranked fourth (106.8).

Iowa is ranked third in the conference in pass defense efficiency (104.04), while Minnesota is ranked fifth (107.29).

The Gophers are ranked one spot ahead of Iowa in scoring defense, allowing 13.1 points per game, which is third best in the Big Ten.

Iowa is allowing 13.9 points per game, and both defenses have allowed 14 touchdowns.

But Iowa will have the best defensive player on the field Saturday in senior linebacker Jack Campbell and a rising star in sophomore cornerback Cooper DeJean.

Iowa also has one of best defensive coordinators in college football in Phil Parker.

Both teams struggle in the passing game on offense, but the Gophers have a huge edge in rushing, averaging 220.9 yards per game to Iowa’s 98.4 yards per game.

The Iowa running game has improved due largely to the emergence of true freshman running back Kaleb Johnson, but it still has a long way to go to match Minnesota’s ground attack.

Minnesota caught a huge break this season from a scheduling standpoint from not playing both Michigan and Ohio State, while Iowa has played them both and lost by scores of 27-14 and 54-10, respectively.

The final score against Ohio State is misleading in regard to how the Iowa defense performed, especially in the first half.

But the Iowa offense committed six turnovers and that ultimately caused the defense to unravel down the stretch.

Another reason I’m picking Iowa is because of the veteran leadership on the team.

The team could’ve easily unraveled after the Ohio State loss, but just the opposite has happened.

Iowa has won three games in a row by a combined score of 81-26 and Iowa has also won 13 consecutive games in the month of November dating back to the 2019 season.

Minnesota also has won three games in a row after having lost three consecutive games, so from a momentum standpoint, both teams have it.

There is just something about the Iowa defense, and the Iowa kicking game with punter Tory Taylor and true freshman kicker Drew Stevens, that makes me think Iowa will prevail as long as the Iowa offense doesn’t mess things up.

Prediction: Iowa 12, Minnesota 10