By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – In ranking the 18 Big Ten football teams from top to bottom, it became a group discussion, specifically four groups, that are separated by talent, potential, and even reputation to a point.

Personal bias also factored into it, since, of course, I’m the one who put the 18 teams into four groups, and since I grew up cheering for the Hawkeyes and have covered Iowa athletics since 1991.

But you can be biased and fair, and objective, at the same time because that isn’t nearly as challenging as trying to juggle.

Group 1

1. Indiana, 2. Ohio State, 3. Oregon

This first group consists of three teams that are locked and loaded, fully capable of competing for a national title, led by defending national champion Indiana, which still seems kind of strange saying.

Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in both preseason polls, and as usual loaded with future NFL players, especially on offense.

But until somebody dethrones Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers, the top spot goes to Indiana, which has reloaded on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

Those who vote in the Coaches Poll, and in the Associated Press poll, disagree as Indiana is ranked sixth in both preseason polls, so not even in the top five, and trailing both Ohio State and Oregon.

Cignetti could use that as motivation, and to guard against complacency, though it’s hard to see complacency being an issue after just two historical seasons that were preceded by decades of futility.

Oregon rounds out the first group, and just like the other two teams in this group, the Ducks have talent at multiple positions, one of the best teams that money and prestige can buy.

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Group 2

4. USC, 5. Michigan, 6. Washington, 7. Penn State, 8. Iowa, 9. Illinois

This group consists of six teams that are a couple notches below the big three from a talent standpoint, and in some cases more than a couple notches, but also capable of being in the playoff mix with a little luck, good fortune and by defying the odds.

One or two of these teams, and maybe even three, could ultimately prove that they should have been included in Group 1, and some might do just the opposite and under-achieve.

It seems unlikely that any of these teams would finish with a losing record, barring a rash of injuries.

Iowa and Illinois were both seriously considered for Group 3, but were given the benefit of the doubt; in Iowa’s case, maybe partly due to my personal bias, but also because of Iowa’s consistency under veteran head coach Kirk Ferentz, which includes eight double-digit win seasons and just four losing seasons over 27 seasons.

Illinois can’t match Iowa from a consistency standpoint, but has won 19 games over the past two seasons under head coach and former Hawkeye Bret Bielema; finishing 9-4 last season and 10-3 in 2024.

Iowa has a mostly non-threatening nonconference schedule against Northern Illinois, a rebuilt Iowa State squad and Northern Iowa, all of which will be played at Kinnick Stadium.

But then Iowa will start Big Ten play with three monumental challenges at Michigan, at home against Ohio State and at Washington.

The threat of being 3-3 midway through the regular season, and out of the playoff hunt, is a realistic possibility.

Iowa has massive holes to fill on offense, defense and special teams, including both kickers, one of the greatest return specialists in Big Ten history in Kaden Wetjen, and eight starters on defense.

Iowa will also have a new starting quarterback with little game experience, and three new starters on the offensive line.

Add all this up and you start see why Iowa was considered for group three.

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Group 3

10. Minnesota, 11. Nebraska, 12. Wisconsin, 13. UCLA, 14. Northwestern, 15. Maryland, 16. Rutgers

This group has seven teams that are capable of finishing with a winning record, but also fragile and vulnerable in some ways.

Minnesota is coming off back-to-back 8-5 seasons, and finished 6-7 the year before in 2023.

Eight wins might represent the ceiling for this group of teams, while eight losses would be the basement.

The Gophers are built for eight wins more than eight losses under head coach PJ Fleck; earning the top spot in this group.

Most of the teams in this group seem closer on paper to winning eight games than losing eight games, but somebody has to lose, and it’s reasonable to think that two or three of these teams could under-achieve.

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Group 4

17. Michigan State, 18. Purdue

These two teams seem destined to struggle, so winning more than four or five games in both cases would be considered a job well done.

Pat Fitzgerald is in his first season as the Michigan State head coach, while Barry Odom is in year two at Purdue.

Both coaches obviously need time to show if they can meet the challenge, but with Cignetti’s instant magic at Indiana, time might be in shorter supply these days.

Cignetti has shown that anything is possible, turning what was arguably the worst program in Big Ten history into one of the best, and doing it immediately, and with a brashness that has added to his mystique and growing legend.