By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – If the Iowa football team were to win at least nine games this season, it would arguably rank as one of Kirk Ferentz’s best coaching performances as the head Hawk, even without making the 12-team playoff.

Some might argue that it’s presumptuous to say that before even one game has been played.

In this case, however, that doesn’t matter because just the circumstances surrounding this season are enough to say that nine wins would equal success. From the roller-coaster schedule to the heavy personnel losses on offense, defense and special teams to the never-ending threat of having one of those seasons that just happens to derail, the 2026 season has some unique challenges.

This isn’t to suggest that Iowa is at risk of having its first losing season since finishing 4-8 in 2012.

But a winning season doesn’t just happen.

Kirk Ferentz faces a daunting task this fall, made even more challenging by a schedule that could go from pampering Iowa in the first three nonconference games to pummeling Iowa in the first three conference games.

No disrespect to Northern Illinois, a rebuilt Iowa State squad or FCS member Northern Iowa, but on paper, this appears to be one of Iowa’s easiest nonconference schedules in quite a while. All three games will also be played at Kinnick Stadium.

Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa both have seen far better days, while Iowa State saw more than 80 percent of its roster, and its coaching staff leave the program after Matt Campbell was hired as the Penn State head coach.

Iowa should be 3-0 and ranked in the top 20 when Big Ten play starts, and what a contrast it will be; going from playing Northern Iowa on Sept. 19 at home to facing Michigan a week later in the Big House, and with a quarterback making his first start in conference play for the Hawkeyes.

While there are so many concerns about this Iowa team, including, of course, the inexperience at quarterback, the biggest concern might be the situation on special teams where Iowa has to replace one of the greatest return specialists in Big Ten history in Kaden Wetjen, record-breaking kicker Drew Stevens, two-year starting punter Rhys Dakin and long-time special teams coordinator LeVar Woods, who now coaches specials teams at Michigan State.

Chris Polizzi was promoted to special teams coordinator shortly after Woods left the program, and to say that Polizzi, who has two decades of coaching experience, will be tested this season is an understatement.

It would be hard enough under any circumstance to uphold the high standard that Woods set on specials teams. But to face that challenge with so many key personnel losses takes it to another level.

Hawkeye fans have grown used to seeing special teams and defense as the driving forces behind Iowa’s success under Kirk Ferentz.

But this season could be different with eight new starters on defense, including all four defensive linemen, and with the uncertainty on special teams.

The Iowa offense was clearly the best unit on the team during the Kids Days practice on Aug. 15 at Kinnick Stadium as quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski shredded the Iowa defense with a vertical passing attack of all things.

The Iowa offense showing improvement is certainly cause for optimism, but it’s still hard to see Iowa having any kind of success without performing well on defense and special teams.

With the way the schedule is set up, Iowa could be eliminated from playoff contention midway through the regular season because all it would take is three losses, and it seems likely that Iowa will be an underdog in its first three Big Ten games at Michigan, at home against Ohio State and at Washington.

If your idea of success is making the playoff or bust, then more times that not you’ll be disappointed as a Hawkeye fan, at least until the playoff expands to 24 teams.

Nine wins almost certainly wouldn’t be enough for Iowa to make the playoff this season, but it would be enough to consider the season a success under the circumstances. Nine wins isn’t what it used to be, but it still would mean something.

Iowa added a record 16 players from the transfer portal this offseason, showing a sense of urgency, which was caused by so many critical personnel losses.

If Iowa were to win fewer than eight games this season, the concerns on paper heading into the season would have carried to the field.