By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa –  Iowa State has won three of the last four games against Iowa in football, and is coming off one of the most successful periods in program history, with eight winning seasons over 10 years.

Season attendance is also as strong as ever in Ames, showing that Cyclone football finally has achieved some relevance beyond Story County.

The problem is that all those good things occurred under former head coach Matt Campbell, who is now the head coach at Penn State, a move this past December that would lead to Iowa State’s roster being gutted and then rebuilt in a matter of months.

Most of Iowa State’s best players followed Campbell to Penn State, 24 all together.

Iowa State was left with scraps from a personnel standpoint, and with a coaching search that ultimately led to Jimmy Rogers being hired away from Washington State, where he had coached for just one season.

Rogers was also the head coach for South Dakota State in 2023 and 2024, leading the Jackrabbits to the FCS national title in 2023, and with former Hawkeye Mark Gronowski playing quarterback.

Rogers has since assembled an Iowa State roster with 81 new players.

Fans got their first glimpse of the new-look Cyclones last Saturday as they defeated Southeast Missouri State 38-10 in Ames.

Iowa State quarterback Jaylen Raynor accounted for four touchdowns in the win over Southeast Missouri State – two passing two rushing.

And while he doesn’t have blazing speed, Raynor, who started 36 games for Arkansas State, can extend plays with his running ability.

“You watch them on film. They were very impressive,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said of Iowa State. “A little bit like last week, a lot of new faces to try to piece together, looking at their roster, and a little bit like last weekend that at least from a schematic standpoint I think we have a decent feel for what to expect — although it’s still early season, so you never know 100% what it’s going to look like.

“There’s a lot of similarities between what they’re doing now defensively and what they were doing when we played South Dakota State out here. Looking at what they did at Washington State, it was very impressive, very good defensive football team. I think that’s what you’re seeing on last week. Certainly the same thing there.”

With Campbell and former Cyclone quarterback Rocco Becht, you sort of knew what to expect.

The current Iowa State team, on the other hand, is a mystery, though there is some belief that Iowa State will struggle this season as it moves on without Campbell.

Rogers had to rebuild the roster almost from the ground up, and it’s probably fair to say that due to the difficulty of that task that Iowa State will take a step back this season.

Iowa is favored by 14.5 points and that seems fair under the unique circumstances.

Both teams are 1-0 after easy wins against vastly inferior opponents.

Iowa State has also won the last two games at Kinnick Stadium by scores of 10-7 in 2022 and 20-19 in 2024.

But those games seem like a lifetime ago with everything that has happened.

Iowa’s last win over Iowa State came in 2023 by a score 20-13 in Ames, though that win has since been erased due to a recruiting violation involving former Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara.

So technically, Iowa State has won the last three games in the series, but Hawkeye fans probably don’t see it that way.

The Iowa offensive line was terrific in the win over Northern Illinois as right guard Kade Pieper and left tackle Trevor Lauck both helped set the tone with their individual dominance.

Kamari Moulton rushed for 183 yards on just 11 carries and scored on runs of 50 and 37 yards.

Look for Iowa to establish the run right away because that’s what Iowa does under Kirk Ferentz.

But also don’t be surprised if Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester takes some early shots downfield, because Iowa not only has a game to win, but also a quarterback competition to settle between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski.

Brown started in the win over Northern Illinois, completing 12-of-20 passes for 129 yards and one touchdown.

He and Hecklinski also rotated throughout the first half, which ended with Iowa leading, 33-0.

This might be the deepest Iowa has been at the wide receiver position for quite a while, helped by the addition of transfer portal receivers Tony Diaz and Evan James.

So why not take some chances downfield?

Diaz had seven catches for 84 yards and one touchdown in the win over Northern Illinois, while James returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown.

Both players showed the kind of speed and quickness that Iowa often has lacked at wide receiver.

Last week’s game was played in extreme heat and humidity, and yet, Kinnick Stadium was almost full for the opening kickoff.

“I’m impressed with our fans base showing out last week,” said Brown, who transferred from Auburn prior to last season. “Even though it was a hot one, just all of them coming and supporting and bringing that environment.

“And I know this week it’s going to be electric. I’m excited to see just the impact that our fans can have on this game.”

If Iowa stays ahead of the chains on offense while also establishing some balance, the Cyclones will be in trouble.

Rogers might shock the world in his first season at Iowa State, and a win over Iowa would certainly be an early sign of that happening.

But it’s just hard to envision Iowa losing to an Iowa State squad that barely even existed just a few months ago.

Prediction: Iowa 31, Iowa State 14

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Iowa State (1-0) vs. Iowa (1-0)

When: Saturday, 6:30 p.m.

Where: Kinnick Stadium (69,250)

TV: NBC

Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network

Series history:  Saturday’s game will mark the 73rd meeting in the series where Iowa holds a 46-25 advantage (Iowa’s win over the Cyclones in 2023 was vacated). The series began in 1894 — a 16-8 Cyclone victory.

Iowa is 25-15 all-time against Iowa State inside Kinnick Stadium. The Cyclones have won the last two meetings in Iowa City, winning 10-7 in 2022 and 20-19 in 2024.