Indiana vs. Iowa; game preview/prediction: Pieces in place for an upset
By Pat Harty
IOWA CITY, Iowa – Since being hired as the Indiana football coach prior to the 2024 season, Curt Cignetti has become known for two things: winning and trash talk as they both feed off each other.
Cignetti’s brashness and his willingness to poke at opponents with veiled and unveiled jabs is acceptable as long as the Hoosiers are winning.
And right now they’re winning at an incredible rate as Cignetti has a 15-2 record as the head Hoosier, including 4-0 this season.
No. 11 Indiana is averaging 559 yards per game and is coming off a stunning 63-10 destruction of then ninth-ranked Illinois last Saturday in Bloomington, Indiana.
And though Cignetti has taken a few shots at Illinois in the wake of the historic victory, most notably that his team broke Illinois’ will and pounded them, his comments in relation to this Saturday’s game against Iowa in Iowa City, and about Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz, have been way more tame, and even respectful.
Cignetti said at his weekly press conference on Monday that facing Iowa on the road will be a real challenge.
He also had very high praise for Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz, who is the Big Ten’s all-time winningest head football coach with 207 career wins.
“Got a lot of respect for Coach Ferentz, everything he’s accomplished throughout his career as a head coach and as an assistant, too,” Cignetti said. “He was a great line coach before he became a head coach. And he was a graduate assistant at Pitt in 1980. I was a graduate assistant at Pitt in ’83 and ’84.
“He used to come by the offices now and then. Had a chance to — met him a couple of times out and around. Got to know him during the Big Ten meetings. Congratulate him on the big win a couple weeks ago to make him the winningest coach in the Big Ten.”
No smack.
No petty jabs.
No bold pre-game predictions like the one Cignetti made before facing UCLA at Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California last season.
“We’re just going to an old stadium to kick somebody’s (butt),” Cignetti said.
The Hoosiers backed up Cignetti’s prediction in spectacular fashion by crushing UCLA 42-13 in the second game last season.
Cignetti also spoke highly of the game-day environment at Iowa, while also taking another little jab at Illinois.
“And Iowa, it’s a tough place to play, Kinnick Stadium,” Cignetti said. “They sell out almost every Saturday. It’s loud. So we’re going to have to play well. This will be a challenge, a more difficult challenge than the last one, for sure. And the sooner our guys realize that, the better.”
Cignetti speaks as a head coach who seems genuinely concerned about the challenge facing his team on Saturday.
His praise for Kirk Ferentz also came off as more than just lip service.
There seems to be a mutual respect between the two head coaches, and in Ferentz’s case, that isn’t a surprise because he sometimes goes out of his way to praise and respect his opponents.

Ferentz probably doesn’t have many opposing head coaches on his Christmas card list, but he respects his opponents because he respects the game that has been so good to him, and to his family.
And it’s hard not to respect the miracle turnaround that Cignetti has orchestrated so far at Indiana, which only had three winning seasons from 1995 to 2023.
“Coach Cignetti has come in and done a great job,” Kirk Ferentz said Tuesday at his weekly press conference. “Really upgraded their personnel last year, and beyond that they’re really well-coached. You didn’t see a game where they didn’t play hard and look like a really good football team.
“From my vantage point I think they’re a better football team this year. They’ve upgraded even more with their personnel, done a good job with the transfer portal, and also developing the guys that they have on their roster.
“They’re playing at a high level right now. Didn’t look like they had a flaw the other night at all. A really strong performance. It’s pretty much been that way all season long. Every game they’ve been in, they’ve been winning very decisively. Just extremely impressed. Coach Cignetti and his entire staff, and most of those guys came with him from James Madison. They have an identity, got a plan, and it’s worked out very well. A big challenge for us there.”
Cignetti was the head coach for FCS power James Madison from 2019 to 2023.
Much of his staff and over a dozen James Madison players followed him to Indiana, and the results have been extraordinary.
Kirk Ferentz was just being truthful as he laid it on thick about Cignetti and the Hoosiers.
Indiana is arguably the hottest team in college football right now, partly because its sudden rise to elite status nobody saw coming besides probably Cignetti, whose arrogance is undeniable, but also what seems to fuel him.
Indiana’s two losses under Cignetti both happened last season against Ohio State and Notre Dame by scores of 38-15 and 27-17, respectively.
The Ohio State game was played in Columbus while the loss to Notre Dame came in the playoff and was played in South Bend, Indiana.
The current Iowa team isn’t nearly as talented as either of those teams were from last season.
But on its best day, this Iowa team is certainly capable of beating this Indiana team, especially at home.
It might take another herculean effort like the one Iowa put forth in its 55-24 victory over Ohio State in 2017 at Kinnick Stadium.
Nobody could have seen that coming, the way in which Iowa just marched up and down the field against an Ohio State squad that would go on to finish 12-2 overall and 8-1 in Big Ten play.
Iowa started the game with a pick-six and then just kept pouring it on in stunning fashion.
But then the following week Iowa barely fired a shot on offense in a 38-14 loss at Wisconsin. Both of Iowa’s touchdowns came on pick-sixes by all-America defensive back Josh Jackson.
Iowa only finished 4-5 in Big Ten play and 8-5 overall in 2017.
So, it didn’t take an elite Iowa team to pull off one of the biggest upsets in program history.
It just took one game in which Iowa performed exceptionally well, while Ohio State performed poorly and couldn’t stop the snow ball effect.
The Buckeyes often have enough talent to overcome subpar performances, but not when a better than average opponent catches lightning in a bottle on its home field.
Iowa’s beat-down of Ohio State in 2017 was maybe an aberration, or some might say a fluke, but that still doesn’t change what happened.
Even though that game was played almost eight years ago, it still serves as a reminder that anything can happen during the heat of competition.
Indiana hasn’t played on the road yet this season and that could present some problems on Saturday in one of the Big Ten’s toughest road environments.
Iowa fans will be stoked and ready to do their part on Saturday, especially those sitting directly behind the Indiana bench.

The Iowa defense will have to make Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza uncomfortable or it could be a long day.
The team that gains more yards on the ground and wins the turnover battle will also improve its chances of prevailing on Saturday.
Iowa graduate quarterback Mark Gronowski will also have to do his part. He probably wouldn’t have to throw five touchdown passes as former Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley did against Ohio State in 2017.
But Gronowski can’t let Mendoza dominate the quarterback matchup.
The usually reliable Iowa defense will also have to play much better than it did in the first half of last Saturday’s 38-28 victory at Rutgers.
Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker is widely regarded as one of the best defensive coordinators in college football, and Saturday’s game will certainly give him a chance to show it as he so often does.
It will be up to Parker to devise a game plan that makes Mendoza uncomfortable in the pocket and that keeps Indiana’s explosive offense mostly in check.
Iowa’s defense held Iowa State to just 238 yards in a 16-13 loss in week two.
It would be asking too much from the Iowa defense to keep Indiana below 300 yards in Saturday’s game.
But it wouldn’t be asking too much from Parker and his cohorts to keep the Hoosiers well below their 559.0 per-game average.
Iowa’s defense has to show that its performance in the first half against Rutgers was an exception to the rule, a temporary breakdown.
Iowa at last check was a 7.5-point underdog for Saturday’s game as the home team usually gets from 2.5 to three points for hosting.
“We try to go into every week thinking like, hey, nothing is given to you,’ said Iowa linebacker Jaxon Rexroth. “You can’t overlook any opponent. But with an opportunity like this, we know that when the fans come to a game like this and we are the underdog, they’re going to be loud and they’re going to be in it and that helps a ton.
“So, there’s definitely always a chip on our shoulder. But maybe the chips a little bigger, I don’t know.”
And while it would be hard to envision Iowa beating Indiana in Bloomington, Kinnick Stadium is a long way from Indiana’s home stadium.
“There’s a big difference, I think,” Rexroth said when asked about the energy fans provide at home. “The away games, that also helps, though, because everybody is against you and you’re with your boys and it’s just you guys versus them.
“But the fans, they are so loud. When you get somebody stuck in that north end zone, the amount of false starts that the crowd is causing is pretty incredible. I’ve never seen that anywhere else. So to see that is just a big, competitive advantage.”
Multiple players from Iowa’s 1985 Big Ten championship team will also be in attendance on Saturday as part of a 40-year anniversary celebration.
Iowa City native and former Hawkeye player and assistant coach Dan McCarney will also serve the honorary captain for Saturday’s game.
McCarney is known as a master motivator and he used his motivational skills to help rebuild the Iowa State football program while serving as head coach from 1995 to 2006.
His pre-game speech on Saturday could be the stuff of legends.
Upsets are part of what makes sports fascinating, and the bigger the better.
Iowa has lost 10 straight games against ranked opponent as Kirk Ferentz so often gets reminded these days.
And fair enough.
Iowa’s last win over a ranked opponent was against No. 4 Penn State, 23-20, on Oct. 9, 2021 at Kinnick Stadium.
Iowa is long overdue to pull off an upset and to beat a ranked opponent, while the outspoken Curt Cignetti has resisted the temptation to talk trash about Iowa.
Interesting.
Prediction: Iowa 27, Indiana 24
Indiana (4-0) vs. Iowa (3-1)
When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
Where: Kinnick Stadium (69,250)
TV/stream: Peacock
Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network
Series: Iowa holds a 46-28-4 advantage in a series that began in 1912. Iowa has won eight of the last nine meetings.